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Bear’s CFB Bets and Top Plays 9/21/2019

Week 4

Bears Bet of the Week:  Northwestern (+9) vs. Michigan State

I’ve got to pick on Sparty again this weekend.  This games total is set at 37 right now.  This is going to be another defensive battle for Michigan State.  This time they are on the road at Northwestern.  I think Northwestern is a gritty bunch that plays tough, physical football that limits turnovers.  I have not seen enough from the Michigan State offense this year that makes me worry about them being a huge threat.  Northwestern, as an underdog, has won and covered 4 out of the last 5 times vs Michigan State.  Ill take Northwestern (+9) with confidence.

 

High Tier

QB: Sam Ehlinger (TEX) : FD 10,600

This match up between Texas and Oklahoma State is going to a very fun game to watch!  There will be tons of scoring in this game.  It reminds me of the match up Texas had against LSU a few weeks ago.  Ehlinger will have plenty of opportunities to push the ball down the field against a poor defense in OK State, while also having tons of opportunities to show off his rushing abilities.  I see Ehlinger throwing 3 touchdowns in this game while also scoring 2 on the ground with near 100 yds rushing.  All of that adds up for an amazing fantasy night! Play him with confidence on FD (unfortunately this game is not on DK).

QB: Joe Burrow (LSU) : DK 8,500

Burrow is in an absolute smash spot vs. a Vanderbilt defense that has been torched by every quarterback they have faced.  I was not a big believer in Burrow to begin the season.  However, after seeing him in this offense, and seeing how much he has progressed as a quarterback, I am starting to become a believer.  Vanderbilt ranks 120th in defensive effeciencey so far this year and gives up tons of big plays.  This game is going to be a blowout, but not before Mr. Joe Burrow can fill up the stat sheet! Great cash game play on DK, and makes for an interesting option to pair with Sam Ehlinger on FD.

RB: Cam Akers (FSU) : FD 9,800 ; DK 7,800

Cam Akers gets a juicy match up with Louisville this weekend.  Louisville gave up 230 yards on the ground to Notre Dame in week 1, and has not been much better the following two weeks vs weaker competition.  Akers is finally starting to live up to that 5 star ranking he had coming out of high school.  I expect FSU to get Akers going early in this game and expect him to break off some big runs for the Seminoles.   There will be plenty of value on this slate to allow us to pay up for a stud running back in cash will be a must.

RB: D’Andre Swift (UGA) FD 9200

Swift is my #1 back on FD this week, with Akers a close second.  Swift gets to face a Notre Dame defense that is going to be dominated up front by UGA’s offensive line.  Just something to make note of… Notre Dame is avg. 275 lbs across the front of their defensive line, while UGA is averaging 330 lbs across their front.  Notre Dame is giving up nearly 280 yards on the ground this year so far, and I expect to see UGA rush for over 300 yards this weekend.

WR:  Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State) FD 9,700 

This games total right now sits at 71 with a spread of only 6.5!  Lots of points will be scored and it will stay close.  In cash games this week, you want to make sure you get plenty of pieces to this game as it has the highest O/U on the slate.  Just a few weeks ago we saw LSU’s offense make big play after big play against this Texas secondary.  Now one of the top big play wide receivers in college football gets a crack at this secondary.  Tylan is averaging 26 yards per catch on the season.  Through 3 games this year he has 15 receptions 390 yards and 6 touchdowns.  He is high on my list this week!  I love pairing him in a stack with Sanders and Hubbard!

Mid Tier

QB: Dillon Gabriel (UCF) FD 9,000 ; DK 7,000

Ok, im slowly starting to become a believer in UCF this year.  They look extremely athletic and have shown the ability to put up points in a hurry.  UCF is averaging 51 ppg while only allowing 14 ppg!!! One of the main reasons they have had so much success this year is due to their very talented freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel.  I was skeptical of him a few games ago.  I was not sold on his decision making ability and his ability to read defenses.  Well, he is proven me wrong every week so far.  This UCF team will put up big time numbers this week vs. an over matched PITT team.  Dillon Gabriel will be a big reason why!

RB: Greg McCrae (UCF) FD 7,900 ; DK 6,100

We will just keep rolling with the UCF theme here.  Greg McCrae has been a big part of this offense and has shown big play ability.  He has racked up 258 yards on 35 attempts for an average of 7.7 yards per carry.  He also has 3 rushing touchdowns on the year.  I expect UCF’s offense to keep rolling this week and expect McCrae to break off some big plays to help lead his team to victory.  He is mis-priced on both sites and I think it would be wise to take advantage of this!

WR: Bryan Edwards (SCAR) FD 7,400 ; DK 6,300

Bryan Edwards is an extremely talented wide receiver.  The South Carolina offense struggled early this season getting him the ball, but since Hilinski has taken over at QB, Edwards targets have increased.  Muschamp has made it known that they need to find a way to get their standout WR the ball more.  I expect him to be heavily involved in the game plan this week vs. Mizzou in what should be a high scoring game, with a total set at 66.  In the last two games for SCAR Edwards has 14 receptions for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.  I believe he is an elite play on FD and a good play on DK.

VALUE

RB: Javian Hawkins (Louisville) FD: 7,000 ; DK 4,400

I believe Hawkins is an elite play this weekend facing a Seminoles defense that is getting dominated on every level! FSU is giving up over 170 yards per game on the ground and also allowing over 300 yards per game through the air.  Hawkins is leading the Cardinals backfield with 373 yards on the ground through three games this year, while only rushing for one touchdown.  I expect his touchdown numbers to increase and his yards per game to stay consistent.  Florida State will struggle to keep Hawkins contained with most of their focus being put on the running threat at QB.  Expect Hawkins to have a huge day.  Plugging Hawkins into your lineups will allow you to pay up elsewhere.

WR: George Pickens (Georgia) FD: 6,000

George Pickens came into UGA ranked as one of the best WR in his class.  He has size, speed and runs great routes.  Georgia will be facing a Notre Dame defense that is not very good.  They will be loading the box to take away what Georgia does best, which is run the ball.  By loading the box, this will create one on one matchups on the outside with Georgia’s receivers.  Pickens should be able to take advantage of man coverage and create big plays in the passing game.  He is slowly becoming one of Jake Fromm’s favorite targets, and if I can get a wide receiver of Pickens talent at 6k on Fanduel I will plug him in every time!  Pickens number of targets and receptions have increased in every game and I expect the same here.

Mikel Barkely (TCU) FD 4500 

Barkley is a very talented JUCO transfer playing for the Horn Frogs.  Barkely has yet to see action for TCU due to injuries, but is finally practicing and has a chance to play this weekend.  He turned lots of heads in fall camp by being an explosive vertical threat.  If he gets a chance to play this weekend he has the opportunity to make big plays.  He would not have to do much to pay off his $4,500 price tag.  I will keep our Karma community updated on injuries in our Discord channel.

*Others to consider: WR Chatarious Atwell (Louisville) ; RB Elijah Collins (Michigan State) ; QB Brandon Peters (ILL) 

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