Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 10 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 10

QBs RBs WRs Stacks
J. Winston
A. Kamara C. Godwin Chiefs
L. Jackson S. Barkley M. Evans Giants
K. Murray C. McCaffery M. Thomas Packers
D. Brees L. Bell T. Hill Browns
D. Jones J. Samuels O. Beckham Titans

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
  • Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
    • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
  • This week I think there are a lot of great stacks in play but before moving on to which pass-catchers I’m pairing lets talk about the RB situation.  I am FADING CMC (not a full fade just very underexposed).  I know, I’m an idiot.  CMC is going to score 5 touchdowns and everyone is going to go “I told you so”.  CMC’s price tag on Draftkings is to the point where if he DOESN’T score multiple touchdowns and receive 25% of his teams target share, he won’t hit 3x this week.  With that being said there are MULTIPLE running backs this week that actually PROJECT for 3x.  These players are going to make up my running back core.
    • Alvin Kamara
    • Saquon Barkley
    • David Montgomery
    • Ronald Jones 
    • Marlon Mack
    • David Johnson
    • Leveon Bell
    • Nick Chubb
  • I’ll have some SPRINKLES of
    • Tarik Cohen
    • Damien Williams
    • Jaylen Samuels
  • Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.
    • Jameis Winston-Chris Godwin-OJ Howard/Christian Kirk 
      • OJ Howard will be a lower owned piece of this stack.  However, Winston/Godwin/Kirk are all extremely chalky.  That’s OK.  This game is looking like a shootout.
    • Ryan Tannehill-Delanie Walker-AJ Brown/Sammy Watkins
      • Very low-owned side of this potential shootout.  Let’s hope the Titans let Tannehill sling it when they fall behind early.
    • Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams/DJ Moore
    • Daniel Jones-Saquon Barkley-Golden Tate/Robby Anderson
      • This game is going overlooked more than any on the entire slate.  Either Saquon is going bonkers of Daniel Jones has a 300+ YD game with multiple TDS. Or… both?
    • Patrick Mahomes-Sammy Watkins-Tyreek Hill/AJ Brown
      • Obvious slate-winning upside.  I like AJ Brown a lot this week
  • I’ll try to add some high-upside value plays to this section moving into Sunday.  Hope this helps.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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