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Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown – Millionaire Maker Plays Week 1

Hello all and welcome to my first NFL GPP breakdown for Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction.  For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma.  I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season.  As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!


 I apologize if this article is a bit vanilla compared to what you’ve seen from me last year but I am going to be extremely active on podcasts (Thursdays/Sundays), posting a Game Theory piece similar to what I did in MLB, and of course chatting it up with all DFS Karma Discord members.  Make sure to use the code “ENDZONE” and hop into the DFS Karma Discord ASAP.

QUARTERBACK :


High Tier:  Cam Newton  ($6500 – DK ) – 
Cam comes into this slate projected for under 10% ownership on Draftkings.  This likely comes as a result of his injury that we’ve been hearing about all off-season.  While we cannot know for sure if Cam is 100%, that is the report – that he will have zero limitations in week 1.  He is playing in one of the most stackable games on the slate with plenty of weapons to pair him with.  His rushing ability brings a dynamic we love to get exposure to in NFL GPPs.  I’m BIG on an under-owned Cam Newton week 1, while the field takes more of a wait and see approach to grasp Cam’s true health.

 

 

Mid Tier: Dak Prescott ($5900 – DK ) – Full disclosure, I am going to the Cowboys vs Giants game week 1.  With that being said, I am a Giants fan and am rooting for a Giants win.  However, this seems like a smash spot for Dak Prescott and he really isn’t being talked about.  I am high on the Cowboys offense as a whole this year and think Dak could have a career season.  With Zeke coming back late from injury, we may see this team lean more on the chemistry we saw in the off-season with Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup.  Add a healthy Amari Cooper to the mix and this is a pass-offense to be reckoned with.  Game-script here, according to Vegas, would lead you to believe that the Cowboys funnel usage to their running backs.  But, as I said, I do not think this is going to be a 25-carry game for Zeke.  This sets up perfectly for a MAJOR Dak game against a weak defense.  I’m pairing him up with Cooper and/or Gallup in GPPs this week.


Low Tier: Kyler Murray ($5600 – DK ) 
– With everyone coming off Kyler because of a few slow preseason games where the Cardinals admitted to running a plain/generic offense that really wasn’t designed to utilize Kyler’s strengths.  With the recent comments coming from David Johnson about how electric this offense should look week 1, I cannot withhold my excitement and am continuing to bump not only Kyler but David Johnson and Christian Kirk up in my projections.  The dual-threat QB in the air-raid offense could lead to a top-7 QB year for Kyler while priced as the 14 this week.  Take advantage of this price tag and ownership on him, if the Cardinals are scoring TD’s fast this Sunday… both his price and ownership will soon sky-rocket.

 

 

Deep Sleeper: Josh Allen


Running Backs:

 

High Tier:  Christian McCaffery  ($8,800 – DK ) – This play may not be the typical GPP play you’re used to seeing in this article but it is one I need to highlight this week as I continue to smash and further invest into the Panthers offense this season.  CMC’s dynamic play as a pass-catcher but also a rusher provides a ton of upsides in Newton-CMC stacks where we are soaking up ALL the points from this offense.  I don’t need to go on and on about how good CMC is, you all know that but what if I told you he was going to be the 5th running back in terms of ownership.  With this leverage knowing that a 30+ DK point game from CMC is not out of the question, he provides the ceiling that I am targeting when paying up this high at RB.  Saquon, is in a negative game-script matchup, on the road, with a low implied team total, yet his ownership projections are around 5-7% higher.  Overload on Christian McCaffery this week.  I love him in Cam-CMC-(DJ Moore/Samuel) stacks.

 

Mid-Tier: David Johnson ($7,700 – DK ) – Although David Johnson is not a mid-tier play, there is so much value on the board this week that I felt like I can squeeze him in here.  He’s a similar guy to CMC where his upside is going completely over-looked, and his dynamic role as a pass-catcher out of the backfield makes him even more viable as a stack option with Kyler Murray.  Johnson is currently projected for under 8% ownership and while I imagine that creeps up throughout the weekend, I highly doubt it gets anywhere close to where it should be.  He could easily end week 1 as the RB1.  This offense is extremely volatile and no one can predict it.  However, the range of outcomes is wider for this team than any other in the NFL.  Embrace that volatility and load up on the Cardinals in Week 1.

 

Low Tier: Matt Breida ($4,00 – DK )- I am extremely long on Matt Breida and while I do not believe he will ever be able to take the full percentage of snaps in this offense due to the signing/presence of Tevin Coleman, I do consider him the better back and apparently the 49ers do as well.  They currently have Breida listed above Coleman on the depth chart and while that does not weigh much importance, it is interesting to note and 100% an encouraging indicator of who gains the majority of the touches on offense.  At just 4k this week on Draftkings he is a fantastic MME value play but not someone I would consider if you are playing single entry as the opportunity cost of playing Breida over the mid-tier/high-end backs is too high.  Keep a close eye on Matt Breida in coming weeks as pricing tightens up.

 

Deep Sleeper: Damien Williams


 

WIDE RECEIVER:

 

High Tier: Amari Cooper ($7,000 – DK ) – Staying on-brand with the Dallas player here, it’s tough not to love Amari this week.  Supposedly fully healthy, coming into a juicy matchup with the Giants, at home, where I’m expecting the pass/run ratio the Cowboys roll out to be greater than what the field is expecting.  Naturally, that is leading to my ownership on Dak + Cowboys pass-catchers (Cooper/Gallup) to increase.  More and more, stacking is proving to be the +EV way to approach all tournaments from single entry, to 3-max, to MME.  Stacking two pass-catchers with a QB and then bringing it back with a player from the opposing team is the way you NEED to be approaching GPPs and it is an edge that we have on the field right now where the public is not doing it nearly enough.

Since coming to the Cowboys from the Raiders things have 180’d for Cooper who has been able to show more consistent production than he has at any point throughout his career with the Raiders.  Amari is playing for a pay-day this season and with Zeke likely being limited (15-20% less of the touches he normally would see), I am going to be very overweight on the Cowboys pass-offense this week.

 

 

Mid Tier: DJ Moore ($5,500 – DK ) – If you’re noticing a trend in this article this year, I am trying to lead everyone into correlation plays as that is the only way you have a chance to win a million dollars or hit big in a single entry/3-max GPP.  DJ Moore is the ideal leverage off of the MEGA-chalky Curtis Samuel.  There has been so much hype in camp about Samuel and how well he has played but DJ Moore is the #1 WR in this offense and WILL command more targets and receptions this season.  The 1.3k price difference between these two is what is leading to the ownership differential but with so much value opened up week 1, we can gain massive leverage over the field in Panthers stacks where we are fading Samuel and loading up on DJ Moore who has the higher ceiling.

 

 

Low-Tier:  Jamison Crowder ($4,100 DK ) – This is a play currently projected for sub 7% ownership.  I am debating between Crowder and Marvin Jones as my favorite GPP value play of the slate.  With the very strong cornerbacks on the outside for the Bills, Crowder should thrive in the slot and has reportedly built fantastic chemistry with Sam Darnold in the offseason which weighs even more value in a young quarterback.  Robby Anderson is hobbled and will get a very tough matchup on the outside.  Crowder is the type of PPR play where he provides a ton of safety where his upside is fairly TD dependent as we shouldn’t expect 100+ yards from him.  However, a 6/70/1 game, in my opinion, falls in his 75th percentile range making him a fantastic play at just 4.1k.  (Crowder is also my highest owned WR in best ball this season where I have over 80 drafts completed).

 

 

 

Deep Sleeper: DJ Chark


 

TIGHT END:

 

Evan Engram ($4,800 DK ) – Ironically, I thought some people would troll for the Evan Engram pick this week considering the Giants team total and that I may be slightly biased as a Giants fan going to the game.  But this seems like a fantastic GPP play on paper and in theory.  Obviously I am very high on the Cowboys passing offense and if we believe this game goes as scripted by Vegas, the Giants are going to be trailing and will give the Giants no other option but to throw the ball.  Unfortunately, Engram’s upside comes at the expense of the Giants choosing to start Eli Manning over Danny Dimes Jones, but Engram is one of the top YAC TE’s in the NFL.  He is a physical freak and sets up more as the WR1 in this offense (similar to George Kittle), than a TE.  He’s priced $200 cheaper than Sterling Shepard (the Giants true WR1) on Draftkings, but we project him to receive only 3% less target share.  That is a fairly minute number considering the fact that Engram is a higher RZ threat with a 24% projected market share of the passing TDs compared to Shepard’s 22%.  You can likely go either way here, but the differentiation at the TE position is what is appealing about Engram to me.

 

Deep Sleeper: Delanie Walker (shoutout AC)

 

 

I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM 

 

 

WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter ?

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