Hello all and welcome to my first NFL GPP breakdown for Week 2 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
I apologize if this article is a bit vanilla compared to what you’ve seen from me last year but I am going to be extremely active on podcasts (Thursdays/Sundays), posting a Game Theory piece similar to what I did in MLB, and of course chatting it up with all DFS Karma Discord members. Make sure to use the code “ENDZONE” and hop into the DFS Karma Discord ASAP.
Follow me on Twitter: @DF_Advantage for more TAKES. I’m putting my money where my mouth is and will have $6,000+ in play this week in DFS alone.
High Tier: Patrick Mahomes ($7500 – DK ) – Quarterback is a bit of a loaded position on this weekend where there are a lot of ways to go. QB isn’t usually a position that wins you the week but I’m trying to focus on QB’s in this article that has that ability, regardless of ownership. As nearly every NFL fan knows, Patrick Mahomes is good. He is going to see ownership this week against an Oakland Raiders defense he should be able to rip apart. The Mahomes-Watkins-Kelce stack may be one of the chalkier stacks on the week but I am going to be overexposed to the field as this could be the nuts game with so much upside paired with value on the Raiders side (Jacobs/Williams).
Mid Tier: Dak Prescott ($6300 – DK ) – Dak single-handedly won me around $7,000 last week, so as you can imagine I am high on him again in an offense that looked very elite. The new OC in Dallas looks like he can make a huge difference and maximize an offense with elite skill players. I am a little lower on Gallup this week due to the fact that we should see more Zeke and he got a huge price bump, but I am ALLLL in on Amari Cooper. The #sharps may be on Gallup this week due to his yardage and upside that wasn’t realized due to lack of a TD, but Cooper has the higher ceiling in this offense and should be the clear #1 option. Dak brings rushing ability to the table paired with a new elite offensive coordinator should lead to another huge week in a cake matchup against the Redskins.
Low Tier: Josh Allen ($5300 – DK ) – Josh Allen is a player that can win you the week and really won’t lose it for you either with his ability to rush the ball (I have him neck and neck with Lamar Jackson for rushing projection this week). Allen’s big-play/backyard style of play paired with high aDOT receivers in John Brown and Robert Foster gives the opportunity for a ton of upside.
Allen is high on my radar this week against a Giants team that should struggle to cover the likes of John Brown (another receiver I am high on this week). At just 5.3k, this feels like a spot I want to be heavily over-exposed at 8% projected ownership.
Deep Sleeper: Marcus Mariota
High Tier: Saquon Barkley ($9,200 – DK ) – Running back is another position where you don’t want to get too weird as you’re usually paying for production unless an injury is involved. Saquon is projected to be the best pivot off of the chalky Alvin Kamara who projects for a couple of points less than Saquon but also comes in $1,000 cheaper on Draftkings. I am MME’ing the Yahoo Baller this week and will be heavily exposed to Saquon Barkley.
With the Sterling Shepard news, you can bump up Saquon to around 20% of the market share of targets. This could be a slate-breaking week from Saquon and it seems like he’s going under-owned.
Mid-Tier: James Conner ($6,800 – DK ) – Conner is a guy with slate-breaking ability in the mid-tier. The blowout by the Patriots leads me to believe we didn’t see the true split of touches between Conner and Samuels. In this offense, back at home where the Steelers historically thrive, Conner is going severly under-owned and you are able to get him at a discount this week. If the Steelers want to win football games we’re going to see Conner as the featured back.
When is the last year you remember where the Steelers didn’t utilize a feature back and that feature back didn’t smash value? I struggle to remember. This matchup + price with Seattle gives Conner one of the best GPP values on the slate.
Low Tier: Matt Breida ($5,200 – DK )- With Tevin Coleman sidelined, my best ball teams are pumped we’re about to see BreidaSZN so early on. Breida should be pretty close to the feature back this week and his price tag getting into the 5k range may lead people to believe he isn’t a massive value… breaking news: he is. Breida is a very talented running back who will see over a 10% share of the 49ers targets. This is a fantastic GPP play on Breida where it seems like the field is a little nervous and is taking more of a wait and see approach. Embrace the uncertainty here and lock-in Matt Breida.
Deep Sleeper: Devin Singletary
High Tier: Amari Cooper ($7,400 – DK ) – I ranted a bit about Amari Cooper in the Dak analysis and things stay pretty consistent here. Amari is priced up with the highest priced WR’s on the week but isn’t projected to see anywhere close to the ownership. He has slate breaking upside as we saw last season and while people may be concerned about Michael Gallup cutting into his target share, this will just allow Amari to see less double-coverage and even rotate into the slot more where receivers are usually much more efficient.
Projected for the 4th highest share of his teams targets on the slate (we’re fading Davante Adams so really 3rd), it’s hard not to play the cheapest of the 4 Cooper in a lot of tournament teams. The spread on this game is not big enough where I am concerned about negative game script affecting the passing game where a lot of people are probably worried. Load up on Cooper this week.
Mid Tier: Brandin Cooks ($6,300 – DK ) – Cooks did not record a target in the 1st half in week one and only caught two balls in the 2nd half. Recency bias is going to be one of our biggest edges in week two of the NFL SZN and being over-exposed to Brandin Cooks could prove to be extremely profitable. If you told me we were getting the WR1 with the highest ceiling on the Rams in the largest total of the week, I would’ve laughed. Cooks has slate breaking ability and we’re going to get him at significantly less ownership had he broke for a random long TD last week. This is such an easy spot to be over-exposed.
Low-Tier: Courtland Sutton ($4,200 DK ) – Sutton is a GPP only play where he is SOOOO cheap but going against (in my opinion) one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Bears. The casual DFS player is NOT going to play Sutton here because most of them never have even heard of him before + the fact that he’s playing one of the best defenses in the NFL. He’s going to be up there with mid-high tier WR’s (Diggs/Watkins/Boyd/Hilton) in market share of his team’s targets but will be significantly lower-owned + is extremely cheaper than the above players listed.
Sutton was an absolute monster this year and could follow the year two breakout tendency we’ve seen from WR’s in the past. Flacco may be horrible but he does have a cannon on him in the latter stage of his career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sutton snag a long TD this weekend at 4% owned.
Deep Sleeper: Cole Beasley
Darren Waller ($3,300 DK ) – Waller is pretty close to a free square this week. A lot of people are going to be loading up on Evan Engram and Travis Kelce this week (I will be among those people), but if you are jamming in the top RB’s on the slate while paying up at QB – you need to pay down somewhere. Waller’s price was released before his week one game which didn’t factor in what was clear – Waller is the second passing option on this team behind Tyrell Williams (chalk this week).
Waller is a potential breakout candidate this year who is uber-talented. At just 3.3k, he makes too much sense to not be over-exposed, even with the oppurtunity cost of other players at the position in good spots this week. I want the savings at TE.
Deep Sleeper: Jordan Reed
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter