Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown – Week 7
Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 7 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
*I have a concussion so I’ve had to limit my screen time this week leading to an elongated research and writing process. For that reason, I’m making my article live now as I fill in Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski’s analysis and copy it over!
High Tier: Tom Brady ($6100 – DK / $8700 – FD) – Brady comes into this game against a fierce Bears defense on an absolute roll with the Patriots. In his past three games, he is averaging 38 pass attempts per game in addition to well over 300 yards. In each of these games, he has crushed the expected points given his salary and looks like an elite version of himself. Draftkings has lowered his price to 6.1k after three straight huge games because of the defense he is playing. While the Bears defense is one of the best in the league, there really isn’t a defense that is able to stop Tom Brady at his best and while we know the Bears are great, they recently got picked apart by Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins where they gave up 31 points. Surprisingly enough, after studying some catch rate vs. depth for the Bears defense this year they allow an above average catch rate from 0-22 yards of depth which is literally Tom Brady’s bread and butter.
As you can see Tom Brady is most efficient within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. With that 68.8 rating sure to increase as passes across the middle are usually easier to make, we can be confident Brady is in for a big day Sunday. At < 10% ownership for the best QB of all time against an overrated defense, I think we load up on the Patriots and Brady’s pass catchers this week at extremely low ownership.
Mid Tier: Matt Stafford ($5800 – DK / $7500 – FD) – Stafford is a fantasy football machine and really hasn’t seen the volume of the first two weeks where he threw for 46 and 53 pass attempts. The key for Stafford here against what looks like a tough on paper matchup is the fact that the Dolphins are worst in the league against yards after the catch. Golden Tate ranks 4th in the NFL here in yards after the catch and the Dolphins have been getting burned vertically which sets up well for Kevin Golladay. The reason I’m touching on the wide receivers here and not in the wide receiver section is that you usually never want to play a quarterback naked and his receivers obviously have a huge impact on the quarterback’s production.
As we can see by this image, Miami gets destroyed after the catch between the line of scrimmage and the 10-yard line. At only 5.8k on Draftkings where Stafford should see at least 35 pass attempts he needs to be in consideration on Draftkings in all formats.
Low Tier: Derek Anderson ($4400 – DK) – This is possibly the worst play I will ever make but for 4.4k on Draftkings Derek Anderson makes for a great milli-maker play where the herd will be on CJ Beathard. Don’t get me wrong, I think Beathard is a great play as well but this is the cheapest we’ve seen a starting QB priced in a while and he is actually in a great matchup. The Colts are forcing teams to play at an extremely high pace as they are so pass heavy themselves. The Bills are going to be playing from behind and the Colts 24th DVOA pass defense doesn’t scare me off. Anderson, albeit only on the team for a few weeks, is a veteran and is primed to put the Bills within a fighting shot. This is a Brock Osweiler type situation where you need to be prepared for the worst here but don’t be surprised to see Anderson go for over 30 pass attempts Sunday which surely will be enough to pay off his 4.4k salary.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Matt Stafford
High: Christian McCaffery ($7,000 – DK / $8,100 – FD) – Christian McCaffery is my main pivot off the Elliot and Gurley chalk this week. McCaffery let down in his last game with the Redskins where he was negatively affected by the game script where he saw only 8 rushes compared to the 17 and 28 he saw in the two weeks prior. With that being said, McCaffery was still on the field for 100% of the teams 60 snaps. While this will be a tough matchup for McCaffery between the tackles, he is going to see A LOT of volume in the pass-game as the Eagles have allowed the 4th most running back receptions in the league. With Phillies stout front seven we’re going to see an increase in pass attempts by Newton which will lead to a larger target number for McCaffery. On Draftkings where we get the full point per reception McCaffery has a very high floor with slate breaking upside if he’s able to get into the end zone. At <15% ownership he makes for an amazing GPP pivot off of Gurley or Elliot in GPPs.
Mid-Tier: Kenyan Drake ($4,900 – DK / $6,300 – FD) – This play definitely comes with a lot of risk considering what his usage was like at the start of the season, but I think the Dolphins are starting to figure out that Kenyan Drake is their best running back as his usage is making a 180 and starting to rise. Last week in their win over the Bears, Drake was on the field for 63% of the snaps getting 13 carries and 6 targets (after seeing 11 targets the week before). Another sign that Drake is trending in the right direction is Draftkings pricing model has increased Drake’s price for the first time this season by 7% over last week. This Lions vs. Dolphins game is one of my two favorite game stacks of the week and I’ll have Drake in every single stack of this game. The Lions have been ripped apart by running backs this season and I don’t know why we wouldn’t continue to attack them in this spot. (Also shoutout Mike Gesicki against a team that is notoriously bad at covering tight ends.)
Low Tier: Peyton Barber ($3,800 – DK / $6,100 FD)- Peyton Barber is the value play of this slate on Draftkings and I’m VERY surprised he’s not being hyped up more in the industry. He’s currently projected for under 10% ownership and is grading out extremely well in all of the models I have analyzed. The ownership projection comes as an even bigger surprise as a ton of eyes in the industry are focused on this Browns-Bucs game for fantasy production with a 51 point over/under. While we came into the season believing the Browns run defense was one of their strong points, it seems to be the other way around with their run DVOA ranked 24th in the league while their passing DVOA is top 3. Cleveland has allowed the 5th most rushing touchdowns in the league and Barber is a great bet to get one with ample rushing opportunities come Sunday. Lock and load for a 10 point DK floor with some upside if he can punch two in.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Peyton Barber
High Tier: Michael Thomas ($7,900 – DK / $8,600 FD) – No one is talking about Michael Thomas coming off two down weeks after just an incredible start to the season. And that is how we make our money in NFL GPPs. Recency bias in a sport that has only played 6 weeks this year. Michael Thomas is an elite WR and has an elite quarterback to toss him the pigskin. A major reason Thomas had two “bad” games was that the Saints blew there opponent out in both matchups. In this 50 over/under against a Ravens team that is implied by Vegas to be LEADING in this game, the targets are going to come rushing back to Thomas as the Saints fight for the lead. After weeks of single-digit target share I guarantee we’re going to get 10+ from Thomas who is an ELITE receiver and has only not caught 3 of his 49 targets this season. This Saints offense hums when it flows through Thomas.
With the Ravens’ defense profiling pretty similar to the Browns, I think we get similair routes to what Thomas did against the Browns in Week 2. The Ravens do a great job at limiting yards after the catch (similair to the Browns) but with Thomas’s floor around 12-15 DK points this week I think we lock that in with the 30+ point ceiling he can provide.
Mid-Tier: Golden Tate ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – As I touched upon in my Matt Stafford analysis the Dolphins get TORCHED after the catch.
Check out his insane numbers after the catch in the graph above and compare that to the Dolphins defense. Obviously, target share will be crucial here, as the Lions have shown to be volatile in their distribution but I’m confident they have studied this Dolphins defense and know what will work effectively. This is why I am not concerned by a 7.4 aDOT as his pass catching efficiency (RACR) is actually higher than Adam Thielen’s (the chalk this week) on the year. At only 6.4k on Draftkings, I think he offers a similair floor/upside as Jarvis Landry at half the ownership (or less). Another amazing GPP play this week.
Low Tier: Chris Hogan ($3,800 – DK / $5,500 – FD)-
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Chris Hogan – DK
Rob Gronkowski ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) –
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
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