High Tier: Desean Watson ($6300 – DK / $7400 – FD) – So, Desean Watson definitely let a lot of people down in Week 1 where he missed open receivers in the end zone and was constantly misreading the field. But, I think he is a prime candidate for a big bounce in Week 2 against a below average Titans pass defense.
In 2018, the Titans pass defense ranked 24th in passing DVOA and were in the bottom 1/3 of the league in yards allowed to the QB. Last year against this Titans team we saw Watson break out for 280+ yards and 5 total TD’s (4 passing + 1 rushing). Will Fuller will be playing this week which opens up things in this offense and takes a ton of pressure + attention off of Hopkins in which he becomes more of a potential threat for Watson to utilize.
The Titans have absolutely no pass rush (as seen by their weak attempt against the Dolphins OL and Ryan Tannehill who was able to have a pretty decent game) and will struggle if they can’t get any pressure on Watson. With the type of upside Watson has, as a QB who has the ability to do it himself (rushing TD’s), I am going to be extremely over-exposed to Watson in Week 1.
If you are looking to pair him up with stacks I am extremely high on DeAndre Hopkins (see below), as well as, Will Fuller (ceiling monster – comes with low floor (only 5.5 targets last season with Watson at QB), and Ryan Griffin (85% of snaps + 5 targets).
Mid-Tier: Case Keenum ($5800 – DK / $6700 – FD) – Gotta give the shout out to one of our other NFL DFS analysts Ben Hossler on his Case Keenum in cash call because Keenum truly did look awesome in Week 1 (albeit against a weak Seattle defense) but I think he is the answer for this Broncos team and truly believe the production will continue in Denver.
The Raiders were dreadful against the pass game in 2017 posting 30th in DVOA, while being more average against the run game ranking 16th in DVOA. With Khalil Mack gone and no other major additions to this Raiders defense, I really think they will have a tough time getting any pressure on Keenum on the road in the thin air of Denver.
This could turn ugly for the Raiders as the Gruden era starts off 0-2. Keenum has so many pieces to work with in this game with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas as the clear 1-2 punch with Courtland Sutton fighting for targets and containing big-play ability.
I don’t think Keenum is cash game playable with some of the other “safer” options on this slate but I do think he is an amazing GPP play when paired with either Sanders or Sutton (or both?).
Low Tier: Blake Bortles ($5400 – DK / 6500 – FD) – The GOAT himself. Blake Bortles is in play this week in a matchup many are calling the greatest QB showdown of all time. Tom Brady. Blake Bortles. It doesn’t get much better than this. The game script seems to be in Bortles favor here barring any insane weather issues from the hurricane.
From the reports, I have read the wind isn’t that much of an issue and shouldn’t affect this game as much as you’d think. The flooding is the big problem with the hurricane and I don’t expect this game in Jacksonville to be affected as much.
The big development here is Leonard Fournette who has not practiced this week but is supposedly expected to play.
I am not buying it.
Fournette did not come into the game last week after he got hurt and hamstrings are usually not something teams want take chances on in week 2. If this is the case, TJ Yeldon gets the start as a RB who is more of a pass-catcher than a between the tackles rusher. This is going to lead to a ton of screens (as we saw against the Giants) and will be huge for Bortles yardage.
The Patriots implement the “bend but don’t break” strategy where they lock down in the red zone but allow a ton of yards between the 20s. Bortles is going need to throw in this game against Tom Brady and the Pats, with Fournette not close to 100%, I’m taking a shot at 2% owned Bortles in GPP.
If you want to chase a TD combo, go with Austin Seferian-Jenkins who will be their go to in the red zone.
Week 1 Analysis
Ahhhhhh. Is it truly NFL season if I am not shoving Blake Bortles down your throat and into your lineups?
No, the answer is no.
But here we are, approaching week one and Blake Bortles is one of my top PT/$ QB’s on the slate with potential GPP winning upside when played in the proper lineup. Although he will not be my number 1 QB this week in terms of exposure in my DFS lineups, you better bet your bottom dollar that he will be spread out throughout a few of my GPPs.
Let’s get into why you are going to play Blake Bortles this Sunday. The first point I want to make here is that I am HUGE on Leonard Fournette this week. The guy is going to go bonkers all throughout this season and I am going to be on the train. With that being said, Fournette’s ability as a rusher completely opens up the passing game, taking a ton of pressure off the formerly turnover prone Bortles.
I know what you’re thinking, “Wait a second though, if the Jaguars are going to always run the ball (in 2017 they ran 50% of the time or 7+% over the league average) why would I play the quarterback from that team? Won’t that decrease the volume he’ll see in the passing game.”
While volume is king in the NFL (I can’t imagine how many times you’ve heard that before – sorry for that), the Jaguars were actually above 12 other NFL teams in pass attempts per game. With the Jaguars top-5 last year in the amount of plays they run each game it is a result of how long their offense is on the field (thanks #1 defense) that Bortles does see ample opportunities to throw the football.
The Giants pass defense as a unit ranked bottom 5 in yards allowed last season and will take some time to get back to 2016 form before I stop targeting them. Bortles price will consistently rise throughout the season (as it did last year) along with his ownership.
Take this opportunity to get your Blake (GOAT) Bortles exposure early on in the season.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Desean Watson
High/Mid-Tier: Kareem Hunt ($6,200 – DK / $7800 – FD) – Another player I am back on in Week 2 is Kareem Hunt. The Steelers and the Chiefs, without a doubt, have the most appealing fantasy options this week and we’ll be looking to differentiate ourselves a bit as we build our GPP rosters.
The masses in the industry will be on James Conner who is still vastly underpriced on all sites after seeing 30+ touches in week 1.
Kareem Hunt will go overlooked as an option in this game where he will be able to reach his upside with ease if utilized the correct way.
For whatever reason, we don’t see enough touches for Hunt and this might not change if the Chiefs continue to see a ton of success in their current offensive scheme. It just doesn’t make sense to me to have one of the most talented three down RB’s in the league and not utilize him.
The Steelers were in the bottom 20% of the league in giving up yards to RBs and should continue to struggle this season. I don’t mind the idea of plugging in Conner and Hunt in a Chiefs/Steelers game stack and getting equity in the rushing TDs that will be scored.
I also like Hunt’s upside in the passing game where, according to Vegas, the game script will force the Chiefs to throw the ball more often than not. There is a ton to love in this game and the player with the highest upside out of them all is going overlooked. Get exposed.
Week 1 Analysis
With there being SOOOO much RB value this week, it is becoming pretty clear that in large field GPPs you won’t win by playing against 200,000 lineups that are built the same exact way as your lineup is. Here is a short dialogue between a #sharp friend and a not so sharp friend.
“Gee whiz Billy! Le’Veon Bell is out! James Conner is a LOCK in all formats!”.
“No Travis, the Browns allowed the 2nd least number of yards to RB’s in 2017 while ranking out 4th in DVOA. Travis, if you are really going to play a 20+% owned James Conner against the Browns run defense, which improved since last season, you might as well just give me your $20 instead and I’ll buy us lunch. That would be the +EV move for you over playing James Conner. Le’Veon Bell in week 1 at Cleveland last year rushed 10 times for 32 yards without a TD. Fade Conner in GPP, Travis, fade him.”
All jokes aside Conner should be a fade in most of your GPP lineups.
With so much value at the RB position I would not even consider him a lock for cash games. With that being said, paying up at RB could pay off huge this week as guys like James Conner, Alex Collins, and Rex Burkhead (chalky options) don’t even sniff the type of upside Kareem Hunt has.
The Chargers are the opposite of a funnel defense where they direct the opponent to run the ball on them (25th in the league in DVOA) compared to pass (9th in league DVOA) where they are absolutely elite.
With this being Patrick Mahomes coming out season (it is), I believe the production of Kareem Hunt is going to be over-looked in a spot where he could break for a 100+ yard game along with 1-2 TD’s.
Hunt absolutely torched the Chargers last season (who led the league in allowed YPC) with a 24/155/2 line and 17/172/1 (not including receiving yards which he added another 62). Hunt loves playing this Chargers team and the way they scheme their defense could be why.
Expect a potentially slate-breaking week out of Hunt and make sure to be exposed.
Mid-Tier: Adrian Peterson ($5500 – DK / $6700 – FD) – After seeing that our boy Ben wrote up Peterson as a cash play I am slightly concerned about what type of ownership we will see on a week where people are starved for value.
Peterson may be as valuable as they come this week (outside of James Conner) where he is pretty cheap on both sites and handled a legitimate workload for the Redskins in Week 1.
With the Redskins being one of the largest favorites on the entire slate in a game total of 48 points we are going to see AP all day. He’s going to see a minimum of 20 touches if this game plays out like vegas is saying it will.
Although the Colts were in the top third of the league against the run last year according to DVOA, they were in the bottom 5 in yards allowed per carry. There is a ton of TD equity to be had from this Redskins offense and I am very confident about AP getting passed to goal line this weekend.
Low Tier: TJ Yeldon ($5600 – FD / $6200)- TJ Yeldon is going to be your 1% GPP/milly maker play of the week. Even if Fournette dresses and is on the field to start, you have to realize something about hamstring injuries.
They are good until they aren’t.
That’s the simplest way to put it. I myself am recovering from a pulled hamstring and let me tell you how it happened.
I was playing in my company basketball league and as I am running after a loose ball I feel a “tweak” in my hamstring.
I continue running after the ball score the layup and try to stay in the game. My hamstring was bothering me but I was still able to walk, run, etc. just not close to 100%. After the game concluded I stretched and felt somewhat OK.
Four days later, I am at a local park playing pickup with a bunch of guys going pretty hard. I am driving into the paint and completely pull up lame. Unable to walk. I pulled my hamstring and it was 100% a result of that “tweak” I had four days earlier.
I know I am not a 220 lb NFL running back with the best trainers in the world treating me but the human body is the human body. If Fournette plays this week I believe his re-injury risk is EXTREMELY HIGH.
Yeldon will get in the game and see the carries + the targets (which he will see anyway) and have the opportunity to “win the week”. He will be 1-2% owned and will need to be utilized in a game I believe they will be trailing to the Patriots.
If Fournette is out, Yeldon automatically becomes an extremely chalky play. No way Fournette sees his normal workload this week and I don’t think he’ll play more than 25% of the snaps at RB.
Take a shot on Yeldon with me and let’s win all the money.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Kareem Hunt
High Tier: DeAndre Hopkins ($8000 – DK / $8400 FD) – I talked about on the Good Karma podcast that is posted on our YouTube page (DFS Karma) about how much I love DeAndre Hopkins this week against the Titans.
I was watching the Dolphins-Titans game last Sunday and I can’t tell you how good this Titans pass rush made the Dolphins offensive line look. Although I don’t have the exact amount of time he had to throw in the pocket, I can promise you it was well above average. If this is the same for Desean Watson this week we can expect a huge game out of him.
Will Fuller being back is a huge weight lifted off Hopkins shoulders as the Titans defense will need to respect Fuller’s big-play ability allowing Hopkins to see some more man coverage. If you follow the NFL, you know the DeAndre Hopkins is as confident in his abilities as they come and can easily be talked up as the best wide receiver in the NFL.
Slightly underpriced in a matchup he should see 35-40% target share I am extremely high on him this week, especially pairing him up with Watson. He caught ten passes for over 100 yards and a TD against this same Titans man-coverage defense last year and I think that doesn’t even approach his upside.
Bold call of the week is the DeAndre Hopkins goes for over 200 yards. LOCK!
Mid-Tier: Nelson Agholor ($6100 – DK / $6100 – FD)- Coming off an extremely long break after starting out their season on Thursday I expect Agholor and the rest of the Eagles to be extremely well rested and prepared for this game with the Buccaneers who found themselves in a shootout last week with the Saints.
If you watched the Thursday night Eagles game, which I’m sure you did (it was painful to watch #boring), you would know that Agholor was Foles’ go to receiver and should be peppered for targets against this week.
Alshon Jeffery remains out and Agholor seems to have improved on his pass-catching ability as he caught 80% of his targets out of the slot week 1.
I have zero belief in Mike Wallace’s ability so the only player we’re worried about stealing Agholor’s target share is Zach Ertz (who saw ten targets last week). Agholor is an amazing GPP play on Draftkings and should be considered a less-optimal play on Fanduel where his TD equity is a bit low in addition to the ½ PPR scoring structure.
Low Tier: Kevin Golladay ($4800 DK / $5700 FD) – The Lions total is on the rise and I believe Kevin Golladay has a ton of upside in this matchup with the 49’ers who have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (29th in passing DVOA last season).
With Golden Tate and Marvin Jones in the mix as the “1 and 2” guys I think people will be nervous to roster Golladay. But Golladay fell 2nd to only Golden Tate in targets and still saw 12 in his own right. With him being on the field for essentially every passing play I am very confident in Golladay’s ability to post a big score will help the Lions bounce back in Week 2.
#Boldcall – Lions win.
Towards the low end of the WR spectrum also consider Courtland Sutton this week who ended up seeing 5 targets in Week 1. Below is my Week 1 analysis on Sutton who is in a decent matchup this week with a below average Raiders secondary at home:
If you don’t know who this guy is, be prepared.
Emmanuel Sanders is taking all the ownership from this Broncos pass attack this week and Courtland Sutton is falling completely under the radar where he is basically free on all sites.
To give you an idea of his profile he is a 6’ 3”, 281 pound, 23-year-old WR drafted in the second round out of SMU.
His teammates are calling him the next Calvin Johnson.
His player profile can be compared to Alshon Jeffery.
This guy has all the makings of a breakout player and nobody is really talking about him (even after he dominated secondary’s in the preseason”. The Legion of Boom is now the Legion of Whom.
Byron Maxwell’s injury has opened up playing time for Dontae Johnson (one of the worst CB’s in the NFL – slight stretch – and the worst on the Seahawks roster”. We have to assume Sutton will see around 65% of the snaps which is enough for him to breakout and crush his price tag.
Sutton is an extremely risky option as we don’t know what things will look like as far as target share goes between him, Thomas, and Sanders but I do know if it was spread equally this guy would be one of the highest owned players on the slate given this price point.
Lock and load in your large field GPPs.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): DeAndre Hopkins
George Kittle ($3800 DK / $5600 FD) – I am not too concerned with the ownership at TE as I want to make the optimal play for GPPs and I think that is George Kittle who saw nine targets in week 1.
The Lions have been someone we have been targeting through the TE position for a couple years now and it isn’t going to stop this week.
They rank 26thth in DVOA against the TE and while Kittle didn’t post a huge score against the Vikings, the volume was there (volume is king in NFL if you didn’t hear) and he was up against one of the toughest defenses in the league.
On Draftkings you can chalk Kittle up as one of the highest owned players on the slate, but you may be able to find him slightly lower owned on Fanduel where he absorbs more of the salary cap. This isn’t going to be your leverage play – but I think he smashes this week and I want to make sure my readers have him in your lineups.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.