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Brian’s CFB DFS Game Theory Week 1 (9/4)

We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.

 

QB RB WR Top Stack
S. Thompson B. Hall M. Harley Oklahoma
S. Rattler B. Robinson J. Whittington Alabama
D. Ritter CJ Verdell J. Waley Texas
B. Young A. Jones J. Cropper Fresno State
Tagovailoa/Kendall B. Robinson Jr. J. Haselwood LT

*Depending on your mobile device, you might need to tilt it sideways to view the full table*

 


Slate Thoughts:

Week 1

Quarterback

  • We get our first chance to see the early Heisman favorite in Spencer Rattler.  He and the rest of the Sooners will be facing a poor Tulane team, who they are favored to beat by 4 touchdowns.  Rattler has a great matchup here, though the possibility of a blowout brings him down slightly for me.  He has no shortage of weapons at his disposal with guys like Mims, Haselwood and Gray surrounding him.  He should feast here and makes for a strong gpp play, and can be considered in cash.. he’s just pricey.
  • Austin Kendall is a West Virginia transfer who is now playing for Louisiana Tech, and will be drawing the start vs. Mississippi State. He comes in priced at only 5.1k which is incredible value that allows us to get up to the Breece Halls of the slate.  Mississippi State is not a defense that strikes much fear in anyone, meaning Kendall has an opportunity to be one of the best values on the slate.
  • Desmond Ritter returns for another year at Cincy.  He had an extremely productive career last season throwing for 2300 yards and 19 touchdowns.  He also added in 600 yards on the ground with 12 rushing touchdowns.  He is priced right below Ritter, which I believe will lower his ownership some.  I like getting to Ritter in tournaments for some ownership leverage over Ritter.

Running Back

  • Anytime that we get Breece Hall on a slate you have to consider playing him.  He is one of the best backs in the country and gets a very good matchup vs. UNI.  Hall finished with 1500 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, and looks to build on that success here.  He is one of the best spend-ups on the slate, and a very strong play in cash games.
  • Bijan Robinson is the lead back for Texas this year, and according to Sark he is expected to get 20+ touches per game.  I like the matchup here vs. ULL and expect him to be heavily involved in the game plan.  Robinson and Hall are my top two running backs on the slate, though it will be tough to play both together due to pricing.  I would stick to Robinson in cash and Hall in gpps.
  • Brian Robinson is another guy that has my interest.  Alabama backs have historically been extremely productive, and Robinson is the next guy in that gets a chance to follow in the footsteps of the Harris’s and Henry’s.  Miami does have a fairly stout defense, but it will be going up against one of the best offensive lines in the country.  I think Alabama will lean on the run a little more early in the season to take some pressure off of Bryce Young, leading to more touches for Robinson.

Wide Receiver

  • Haselwood is probably my favorite Sooner receiver to target in this matchup.  Haselwood was the top ranked WR in the nation coming out of high school a few years ago, and now looks like he is poised to take on a much larger workload than he has had in years past.  He has all the talent in the world, and should thrive in this Lincoln Riley offense.
  • Mike Harley comes into this matchup completely underpriced.  I know he is going up against an Alabama defense, however Miami will be playing from behind and will be throwing the ball quite a bit.  The strength of this Bama defense is in the front seven, so Haley may be able to find a few advantageous spots here.  He had 800 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns last season, and looks to pick up the production even more this year.  Priced in the mid 6k range, makes it pretty easy to get to him in all formats.
  • Sark produced some prolific offenses in his time at Alabama, and in his offenses we watched guys like Waddle and Smith excel.  Now that he is at Texas, it appears to be Jordan Whittington and Joshua Moore stepping into those lead WR roles.  I really like both of these guys in this matchup, but I especially like Whittington due to his very affordable 5k price tag.  Whittington will be a core play for me this weekend.

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