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UAB (-18.5) vs. Central Arkansas: O/U 49.5
Central Arkansas will be playing their second game of the season tonight. They run a spread offense and throw it around a good bit. In their first game of the season QB Braylin Smith threw for 283 yards with a touchdown and 2 INT on 49 attempts. Normally I wouldn’t want any part of a team like Central Arkansas, but on a two game slate, their are a few pieces that can be used. Smith makes for a decent value play at his price on this slate, however I do feel like he has a pretty low floor. Winningham will be the main guy I target from this Central Arkansas. He was targeted early and often last week, and I expect much of the same tonight. Winningham finished with a 6/80/1 stat line. Other than him and maybe Smith I will avoid this offense tonight.
UAB are coming into this season with lofty expectations after a very successful season last year. The top piece of this offense has to be Spencer Brown. Brown is UAB’s all-time leading rusher. Coming in off an injury sustained last year, I expect him to be hungry and finish his career as one of the best RB to ever play at UAB. I look for him to be heavily involved and should get plenty of touches. We witnessed last week, that Central Arkansas can give up explosive plays on the ground.
Next is quarterback Tyler Johnston III. Johnston should be able to take advantage of this Central Arkansas team and put up a very respectable stat line. He will have his top option to throw to, in Watkins Jr. I like the stack of Johnston and Watkins tonight. If Central Arkansas has any luck slowing the run game down, these two could put up very good numbers tonight.
Southern Miss (-13.5) vs. South Alabama: O/U 54.5
Southern Miss comes into this game as nearly two touchdown favorites over South Alabama. This game does offer us the highest O/U on the slate. USM is expected to have a high powered offense this year with the addition of new offensive coordinator Matt Kubik. I expect this team to lean on the pass more often than not. If Kubik brings his system over from UL-Monroe than I am expecting a very good game and season from this USM offense.
The first guy I want to target from this Southern Miss team is Quarterback Jack Abraham. Abraham had a very productive season last year and I expect the addition of Kubik will help him take his game to a new level. Abraham has two very dynamic play makers that will be playing along side him, that is Juco transfer Jason Brownlee and returning play maker Tim Jones. Both of these receivers should be able to make plenty of noise this season, especially tonight vs. an inferior team in South Alabama. If I had to pick one, I would lean towards Jones, due to the connection he has with quarterback Jack Abraham.
Kubik’s offense at UL-Monroe was not really known for its rushing abilities, but I expect them to still be effective. Frank Gore Jr. has been the buzz around fall camp (Yes, that Frank Gore). I believe he makes for a high upside gpp play tonight. I wouldn’t expect a heavy workload, but from what I have seen, he is electric and has tons of big play ability.
On the other side of this match-up, we have South Alabama. SALA comes into this season looking to improve on their 2 win season just last year. There are a few pieces that this team should be excited about, starting with Kawaan Baker. Baker was a big piece of this offense down the stretch last season, he was heavily targeted to close out the season. Once Desmond Trotter took over the reins of the SALA offense, they started to look much improved. I look for Trotter to to try and find Baker early and often, making Baker a decent play on this slate. I expect USM to win this game pretty easily, so I wouldn’t stack to many pieces from this SALA team into my lineups.
Overall, I think UAB and Southern Miss offer the most upside tonight and I will be looking to target most of their studs and sprinkle in my value from SALA and Central Arkansas. We will have our first big slate of the year this Saturday, so come back an check us out! Again sign up clicking the link below and become a DFS Karma MVP member today! Good luck tonight!