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CFB DFS Game Theory: Week 2 (9/11)

We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.

 

QB RB WR Top Stack
S. Clifford I. Spiller G. Wilson Ohio State
CJ Stroud K. Williams P. Wasington Penn State
K. Pickett B. Hall K. Austin Jr. Notre Dame
S. Sanders J. Small T. Harris Ball State
N. Vedral B. Koback J. Hall UAB

*Depending on your mobile device, you might need to tilt it sideways to view the full table*

 


Slate Thoughts:

Week 2

Quarterback

  • First thing I notice when I look at this group of quarterbacks on this slate, is that we have a lot of average to slightly above average guys and not really any elite plays.  The top play for me in my main lineups is going to be Sean Clifford. Penn State is facing off against Ball State who are known more for their offensive production.  I could see this game being more of a shootout than many are projecting.  Clifford has shown the ability to push the ball down field, and also has shown a decent ability to rush the ball.  At only $8.1 k he is a solid play in a game that should have some pace to it.  Again, with no QB really standing out as elite, the difference between the low 8k range and lower 7k range is not that great.
  • CJ Stroud is coming into this game on the heels of a pretty solid outing against Minnesota.  This week his competition steps up quite a bit, as he prepares to face a hungry Oregon Ducks team.  If this game was on the road, I would have a little concern about his ability to perform, however, with it being a home game I expect he will feed off the energy in the stadium and have a very nice game.  An argument could be made for playing Stroud in cash, but I will stick to him being in my main GPP build.
  • Spencer Sanders appears to be back this week for Oklahoma State.  Sanders is someone that I expect the  Cowboys to lean on in terms of rushing production this year.  With no Chubba and the options they have at RB looking pretty poor in their first week, Sanders running things will be a welcome site for this offense.  Sanders not only offers us a very good floor due to his rushing ability, he offers some upside with his arm.  I expect a big game here and think he is a really solid upside play in tournaments.

 

Running Back

  • Isaiah Spiller had a very strong start to his season.  He finished the game with 17 rushes for 113 yards, good for 6.6 YPC.  He gets a tougher matchup this week vs. Colorado, however I expect they lean on the run a good bit here, especially with a young QB playing his first road game.  Spiller is a back that should be priced up higher than the 6.7k price tag he is at right now.  I think this is a good time to jump on him before his price gets closer to 8k, which I expect to happen.
  • Speaking of running backs who I believe are mispriced, how about Breece Hall.  Hall is a guy that was routinely priced above the 9k mark for most of last season, but now we get a solid discount on him.  He does have a tough matchup this week vs. a stingy Iowa Hawkeyes team, but one thing we know Hall will get is volume.  He will be fed the ball all night and will even see a few targets in the passing game.  I see Hall as a solid GPP play, as I expect most to stay off of him because they are worried about the matchup… not me.
  • Jaylen Warren (OK State)  and K Milton (UGA) are two value running backs I may look to, so that I can free up some salary to spend elsewhere.  Warren is a guy that I expect to see more carries this week.  LD Brown really disappointed their game last week, leading to more opportunities for Warren.  I believe the threat of Sanders running will  open up some run lanes for these backs.  Milton is arguably UGA’s best running back.  He did not receive a ton of carries last week, but this is as week where I could see UGA feed him.  JT Daniels has been all but ruled out this week, leading me to believe that UGA will once again rely on their dominant run game.  Yes, White will get carries, but I believe as the season rolls on, the lead back duties will be shifted to the ultra talented Milton.  He is priced below 4k, and could easily end up with 100 yards and a TD here.

 

Wide Receiver

  • First off, DK made a huge mistake on pricing here…. in what world should Garrett Wilson be priced at 5.9k?  He is a lock and load for me in cash games, and he has plenty enough upside to play in gpps.  I expect him to carry heavy ownership, so Olave may be the gpp pivot.  Just play Wilson in your main lineup…. don’t over think that one… DK gave you a free square this week.
  • Another guy that I am really high on this week is Taj Harris from Syracuse.  Harris is an absolute target monster in this Syracuse offense, and I expect DeVito to target him early and often in this game.  I could see this game going back and forth, and with Rutgers focusing on stopping Tucker from getting going, Harris could be the direct beneficiary of this.  Take advantage of the low pricing while we have it.
  • Kevin Austin Jr. is someone I was really high on coming into the year, and now I am even more so after watching his performance vs. Florida State.  He and the Fighting Irish will be taking on a Toledo team that were average at best last season defending the pass.  Austin showed that he has the speed to take the top off of a defense and just be an overall play maker.  Look for Coan to keep targeting him here, and with his big play upside, he could smash his price tag this week.
  • JD Spielman (TCU) is min priced on DK this week.  He did not put up a huge stat line last week, but he was not needed too.  They ran away with their game and starters only played the first half.  He is a very talented receiver that TCU will look to get heavily involved in their offense.  He will not be min-priced very long.  He is a very solid punt play this week.

Good luck tomorrow guys. Click the button below to join today and gain access to all of our Core Plays!    

 

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