CFB DFS Game Theory: Week 3 (9/18) - DFS Karma
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CFB DFS Game Theory: Week 3 (9/18)

We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.

 

QB RB WR Top Stack
K. Slovis K. Dourue Mario Williams Oklahoma
A. Martinez Cam’Ron Harris G. Wilson USC
D. King J. Ford J. Roberson Alabama
S. Hartman J. Broussard David Bell Purdue
J. Plummer K. Marks Jr. K. Austin Jr. Virginia Tech

*Depending on your mobile device, you might need to tilt it sideways to view the full table*

 


Slate Thoughts:

Week 3

Quarterback

  • My top QB play on the slate is going to be Kedon Slovis.  We are getting Slovis priced at 7.2k this week, and with him averaging 38 pass attempts per game, there is plenty of reason to believe he finds the end zone multiple times vs. this weak Washington State defense.  It looks as if London is going to be good to go this weekend, which means Slovis will have a full complement of receivers at his disposal.  I expect Slovis and this USC offense to start clicking sooner rather than later, so we wont see him at this price very long.  Take advantage of it this week.
  • Another QB that finds himself in a favorable spot is Adrian Martinez.  Now, don’t get me wrong, Oklahoma will curb stomp Nebraska in this matchup, but garbage time points/stats still count just as much.  Martinez should find plenty of room to run late in this game when Oklahoma is playing a softer defense.  Martinez already has multiple rushing touchdowns this year, and has a good chance to add to that total this weekend.  At his price of 7.3k he has tons of upside, and makes for a very strong tournament play.  It is hard to stomach the ups and downs of Martinez in cash games, but at his price, I could see him being a viable cash game play this weekend.
  • One of my favorite tournament plays comes from the FSU/WF game.  Sam Hartman has had a phenomenal start to his season, though it has been against two very sub par teams.  Nonetheless he gets a chance to take on a FSU team that has looked completely out of sorts to start this year.  Florida State is allowing 366 yards per game through the air so far this year, paving the way for a big day from this Demon Deacon passing game.  Look for Hartman and Roberson to hook up plenty this weekend.  They are one of my favorite GPP stacks this weekend.

 

Running Back

  • Zander Horvath is out this week, and for multiple weeks after.  In steps King Dourue, who is expected to take on a much larger workload this weekend.  He is stepping into a great situation, because he will be facing a Notre Dame defense who is allowing nearly 200 rush yards per game so far this season.  Doerue is priced below 5k, and is one of the best value plays on the entire slate.  He will be a core play for me this week.
  • Cam’Ron Harris is looking like another possible core play for me this week.  He is expected to pick up some extra carries with Don Chaney lost for the season and Knighton out as well.  Michigan State is a stout defense, and will challenge this Miami run game.  However, with the expanded workload, low price tag, and D’Eriq King opening things up with his ability to run, I expect Harris to smash value this weekend.  With he and Doerue as core plays, you’re only using 10k of your salary on the RB position.  This allows you to pay up and get to a stud WR, or if you want to pay up at QB you are able to do so.

Wide Receiver

  • Another week where DK drops the ball on pricing Garrett Wilson.  He is still priced way too low, and as long as they continue to misprice him, I will play him weekly.  Wilson is one of Stroud’s favorite targets, and is one of the top receivers in the nation.  Expect him to receive a heavy dose of targets in this game. He was targeted 14 times last week.  He is a core play for me this weekend.  Don’t overthink it, and get Wilson in your main lineup.
  • Jaquarii Roberson is someone I mentioned as a phenomenal play with Hartman.  He could also be a great one-off play as well.  Roberson is someone who will see tons of targets in the Wake Forest offense, and with FSU allowing nearly 366 yards per game through the air, he will have plenty of opportunities to produce big time numbers in this game.
  • David Bell is someone you need to have some exposure too every time he is on a slate.  Through two games this year he has 14 catches for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He is Plummers favorite target, and for good reason.  Bell is someone that averages over 14 targets per game, and I do not see that changing this week.  Notre Dame will try everything they can to take Bell away from this offense, but so has everyone else, and to no avail.  Bell has gpp winning upside this week, and makes for a very strong stack with Plummer.

Good luck tomorrow guys. Click the button below to join today and gain access to all of our Core Plays!    

 

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