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College Football Best Bets for Week 5

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Pittsburgh at UCF (-14) -110

If you’re an avid sports bettor or have been around sports betting long enough, you know there is no such thing as a lock. With that being said, this game might be the closest thing to a lock that we have out of the entire slate of Saturday games. The Pittsburgh Panthers travel to Central Florida to play McKenzie Milton and the UCF Knights. Milton and the Knights have been absolutely brilliant to start the season with a 3-0 record and they are 2-1 ATS. The lone game the Knights failed cover was against South Carolina State, where they won in a shutout 38-0. The Knights have scored an average 50 points while only allowing 17.67 points per game. McKenzie Milton had himself a game last week at home against the Florida Atlantic Owls. He threw for 306 yards and 3 TDs as well as adding 3 more TDs on the ground. Pitt will struggle to stop this high powered offense, as they have allow more than 28 points per game. If last week’s game vs UNC was any indication of what to expect from this Pittsburgh team, UCF should have zero problem racking up points. Pittsburgh has shown signs of weakness on the road. Over their last 7 games they are 1-6 S/U and 2-3-2 ATS. The line for this game initially opened at -15.5, once it moved to -14 it was a no brainer. Take UCF to cover -14 over Pitt.

Bet 4 units on UCF -14 to win 3.6 units (-110)

 

Syracuse (+24.5) at Clemson -110

This next game is very intriguing to bettors and handicappers for a number of reasons. Syracuse is 4-0 for the first time since 1991. Clemson will be starting true freshman QB Trevor Lawrence. And Syracuse defeated the Clemson Tigers in Syracuse last season, an outcome in which they hope to replicate this year. Initially Clemson opened as a 20-point favorite against Syracuse, but that number has ballooned to 24.5. Whenever I see a spread that large between two undefeated divisional foes, I am all over it. Clemson might be 4-0 S/U but they have failed to cover in 3 out 4 of those games. All signs point to taking Syracuse +24.5. The Orangemen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Additionally, they are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 game against Clemson. QB Eric Dungey has gotten off to a hot start throwing for 763 yards, 9 TDs and just 1 interception. Dungey has also rushed for 4 TDs. For Clemson, they are making a change at QB. They have decided to start true freshman Trevor Lawrence over the Davey O’Brien Award semifinalist Kelly Bryant. A change that has not surprised many, as Trevor Lawrence has out preformed Bryant thus far. Although Trevor Lawrence has been as advertised, there may be some locker room tension and team distraction. With Clemson having the benefit of this game being played in Clemson, South Carolina, there is not a doubt in my mind that they will win. But, 24.5 points is just too large; take Syracuse to cover 24.5 against Clemson.

Bet 2 units on Syracuse +24.5 to win 1.8 units (-110)

 

Oregon (-3) at California -115

In the clash between the 19th ranked Oregon Ducks and the 24th ranked California Bears, I will be going against recent trends and against many of the handicappers out there. Oregon might have been given an unfair shake from the Vegas lines placed against them to start the season. In their first game of the season against Bowling Green they won 58-24, but failed to cover the -34.5 point spread by half a point. In their second game of the season, 50 point favorite Oregon destroyed Portland State 62-14 and failed to cover for the second straight game. In the third game of the season, Vegas placed another improbable line against the Ducks. Oregon was laying 43 points against San Jose State, a game in which they won by a margin of 33 points. Oregon looked to change its ATS fate when #7 Stanford traveled to Eugene to take on the Ducks. Oregon entered the game as a 3 point dog, and was covering by 20 at the half. Had it not been for 3 second half turnovers and a game-tying field goal, the Oregon Ducks would have been 4-0 and covered in their first game of the season. Ignore Oregon’s 0-4 ATS start that everyone has been using as fade justification. Ignore the fact that California has started the season 3-0 and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games. There should only be two factors that matter in this matchup. California is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 matchup against Oregon. And Oregon’s QB Justin Herbert looks to be the real deal, and might be a little too much for the stingy California defense to handle. Vegas has finally given Oregon a favorable line, and you should be all over it. Take the Oregon Ducks to cover -3 on the road against the California Bears.

Bet 2 units on Oregon -3 to win 1.7 units (-115)

 

Parlay Bet

Parlay 2 units on Ohio St/Penn St u71, Texas ML, Oklahoma St -17 to win 7.6 units (+382)

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