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Record: 6-2 +13.2 units
Colorado +7 at USC (-115)
Call me crazy, but I can’t see USC covering 7 points against this Colorado team. The FPI gave the USC Trojans a 74% chance to win over the Colorado Buffaloes. From what we have seen so far, Colorado might just be the better team. Six weeks into the season we know this much; JT Daniels is not quite ready to lead the Trojans to the promise land and Laviska Shenault Jr might end up as a Heisman Finalist. Just because JT Daniels is a freshman, it does not excuse him for his inability to find the endzone. The 18 year old has only accounted for 4 TDs, with 3 of those coming in the same game. If you look at this from a betting standpoint, you are pitting a high powered offense against an offense that has yet to find its groove. The Trojan offense is averaging 24 points per game to the Buffaloes’ 37. In fact, if you look at the numbers, Colorado is better in almost every major statistical category. They score more, accumulate more yards, their time of possession is longer, and they average more yards per play. And that is just on one side of the ball. The Buffaloes’ defense has been dominate as well only allowing 18 points per game to USC’s 26. There’s a lot to love about this Colorado team. Starting with 6’5 235lbs QB Steven Montez. He has answered the call with 14 total TDs and only 2 INTs. Playing QB seems pretty simple when you are throwing the ball to Laviska Shenault Jr. That kid is an absolute game changer. He lines up at RB, WR, and even in the backfield under center. Shenault Jr has account for 10 of Colorado’s TDs this season. The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, while the Trojans are an abysmal 1-7 ATS in their last 8. Colorado is very capable of winning this game. With USC having home field advantage, the safe play here is to take the points with Colorado +7.
Bet 2 units on Colorado +7 to win 1.7 units (-115)
UCF -5 at Memphis (-115)
Betting the UCF Knights is a lot like betting the Kansas City Chiefs this season. I am going to keep betting them until they give me a reason not to. The Knights face their toughest test yet season, on the road against Mike Norvell’s Memphis Tigers. There are two questions that loom in this matchup. Which Memphis team shows up? The one that scores over 50 points and is victorious. Or the one where QB Brady White can’t hit the wide side of a barn and they lose. The other question, will Mike Norvell be able to stop McKenzie Milton and Josh Heupel’s high powered offense? The Memphis Tigers have looked a lot like Jekyll and Hyde this season. In their games against Navy and Tulane, their offense has not been very good. While in all four of their victories they have looked deadly and have scored over 50 points in each. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, but in their last 9 games against the Knights they are 3-6 ATS. For UCF to win and cover, they must stop RB Darrell Henderson. He is impressive! Although he is having an amazing season, he will not be the best offensive player on the field. The UCF Knights are led by Heisman hopefully McKenzie Milton. Milton and the Knights are coming in on an 18 game win streak (the longest in the country) and are looking to extend it 19. Milton’s stat line is beyond impressive, throwing the ball for over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs while running it in for another 5. Although UCF is 1-4 ATS in games played at Memphis, I look for them to cover easily in this game. 4-1 ATS this season is a tremendous feat. The one game they failed to cover, they shutout their opponents 38-0. The line for this game has moved back and forth between 4 and 5. You should be comfortable taking it all the way up to 6.5. Jump on the UCF cover train and bet the Knights -5.
Bet 4 units on UCF -5 to win 3.5 units (-150)
Wisconsin +9.5 at Michigan (-110)
Taking three teams to cover on the road often spells trouble. Every inclination I had was to stay far away from the Wisconsin/Michigan game. But once the line ballooned from 6.5 to 10, I had to fade the public by fading the Michigan Wolverines. Before the start of the season, Wisconsin was thought to not only win the B10 West but the Big Ten itself. After a few inefficient games and a 21-24 loss to BYU, it seems as if America has written off the Badgers. Let’s not forget Wisconsin has Heisman candidate Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Taylor has rushed for 849 yard and 8 TDs while averaging 6.7 yard per carry. 9.5 points is a lot to cover when the team you are facing has a weapon such as Taylor. On top of having one of the nation’s best players, this defense is still very good. Despite them not being the top 5 defense as they were a year ago, they are still the 11th best defense in the country. The Badgers have not been very good against the spread this season, but this is their first game since December 2nd where they come in as the underdog. In their last 7 games on the road they are 6-1 ATS and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Michigan. The 12th ranked Michigan Wolverines are not a bad team by any means. They have a comparable QB in Shea Patterson, a very good RB in Karan Higdon, and a top 10 defense. This play is simply because of the difficulty of a double digit victory in a game of this magnitude. For those who are down on Wisconsin and riding Michigan, feel free to fade. But for those who share the same sentiment as myself, take the Wisconsin Badgers at +9.5, buy the half a point if it makes you feel more comfortable.
Bet 2 units on Wisconsin +9.5 to win 1.8 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Hawaii +11, Troy -9.5, Army ML, Troy -9.5, Temple -7, Houston -16 2 units to win 28 units (+1389)