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Record: 6-6 +5.2 units
Michigan -7 at Michigan St (-110)
Last week we saw the Michigan Wolverines flex their defensive prowess against the Wisconsin Badgers. I expect them to do much of the same against Michigan St and their weak offensive attack. The Wolverines’ stingy defense held Alex Hornibrook to just 7 completion and 100 yards. To add insult to injury, he also threw 2 interceptions. Probably for the first time in Jim Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan he has a balanced offensive attack. Karan Higdon is leading the rushing attack with 687 yards on the ground and 6 TDs. While Shea Patterson has seemed to have found his groove. Do not let the fact that Michigan has not covered in the last 10 matchups between the two teams alarm you. This game is easy to over think and over analyze. Michigan St has been less than stellar offensively and should have a hard time keeping up with Michigan. The Spartans pulled off a major upset against Penn St last week, but are just 2-4 ATS this season. With Michigan being on the road, I would buy the hook (half point) and bet this game with confidence.
Bet 3 units on Michigan -6.5 (buy the half point) to win 2.6 units (-135)
Oregon +3 at Washington St (-115)
Washington St has won the last 3 games against Oregon, their QB is leading the nation in passing and College Gameday is in Pullman for the first time in 15 years. Don’t let that distract you from the fact that Oregon is the better team in this matchup. The line opened at 2 in favor of the Cougars and has since moved to 3. Early in the season Vegas set very lofty expectations for Ducks and they struggled to cover. The last two spreads were favorable and Oregon covered in both. Coming off a big win against Washington, look for the Ducks to continue with their winning ways. With only one loss, Oregon is not out of the College Football Playoff race just yet. They will have to get passed the Washington St Cougars, which will not be a walk in the park. The team’s new addition under center, Gardner Minshew has been playing lights out. The Cougars have covered in all 6 games this season with its lone straight up loss coming on the road against USC. When it comes down to deciding between the two teams, I cannot ignore the overtime victory against the Washington Huskies. RB CJ Verdell was the answer in this matchup rushing for 111 yards and 2 TDs. With an NFL ready QB Justin Herbert and talent all over the field, I look for the Oregon Ducks to spoil the party in Pullman and come out with a win. The smart play here is to take Oregon with the points at +3.
Bet 2 units on Oregon +3.5 to win 1.7 units (-115)
NC State +17.5 at Clemson (-110)
Before I tell you to fade the public here and bet NC State +17.5, I must give Travis Etienne my praise. In my opinion Etienne has not received enough Heisman love this season. I know the Clemson Tigers schedule has pretty much been a walk in the park, having only played one ranked opponent all year. But sill, Travis Etienne has put up stellar numbers in dominating performances. The sophomore RB has rushed for 761 yards and 11 TDs while adding another in the air. If he’s able to sustain throughout the year, he will leave the Heisman voters with a tough decision to make. With that being said, the Clemson Tigers are only 2-4 ATS this season. And have found themselves in tough one score games against Texas A&M and Syracuse. Clemson’s dominating defense has been stout this season, but ACC leading QB Ryan Finley should be able to keep the game close despite being on the road. He leads the ACC in yards, completions and completion percentage. Three score spreads between two undefeated conference foes often spells out trap game for the heavy betting favorite. The public is all over Clemson moving the line from 16 points to 17.5. I would not be surprised if the line ballooned all the way to 18. NC State is no slouch either, they are 5-0 S/U, 3-2 ATS this season and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Clemson. Make the smart play and fade the public here. Take NC State +17.5 here, I would wait until the last minute to see if the public continues to move the line further.
Bet 1 unit on NC State to win 0.9 units (-110)
Parlay 1 unit on Houston -11.5, Cal -7.5, LSU ML, and Duke ML to win 61.4 units (+614)