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Data Viz Preview: Week 16

Week 16 Preview

Welcome back to the Data Viz DFS NFL Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations. Today we will be previewing the RB & WR position by looking at defensive stats against opposing RBs & WRs. For RBs – we will utilize: rushing yards allowed, receiving yards allowed, total TDs allowed, & Draft Kings points per game. For WRs – we will utilize: receiving yards allowed, receiving targets allowed, rec TDs allowed, & Draft Kings points per game.

For this week I wanted to see if I could reverse engineer the process & back into what RBs & WRs will perform based on who they are facing. This late in the season, we have a decent sample size which means we feel more comfortable making assumptions based on the data. Basically we know what defenses perform & what defenses don’t & we can make our choices based on this.

I will start with the zoomed out visual with all defense included then include each quadrant zoomed in so we can take a closer look at each. Below each zoomed in visual I listed players I love, like, & would avoid for this upcoming week based on match up & past performance.

RB Preview

The first visual is a scatter plot that compares receiving yards allowed (y-axis) & rushing yards allowed (x-axis) to create 4 different categories. The 4 categories are: terrible defense vs RBs, good defense vs RBs, bad defense vs RBS, & great defense vs RBs. The color of the circle is Draft Kings points per game (blue >25 & orange < 25).

This visual is the zoomed in version of the top right quadrant (terrible defense vs RBs). The defenses included in this viz are the defenses we want to target – these are the defenses most likely to give up a big game to opposing RBs. The color of the circle is Draft Kings Points per game (blue > 25 & orange < 25) The size of the circle is total TDs allowed. 

RBs I Love From This Viz

Saquon Barkley | Devonta Freeman | Myles Gaskin | Dalvin Cook | Chris Carson

RBs I Like From This Viz

Patrick Laird | Adrian Peterson

RBs I Would Not Target From This Viz

All Chicago Bears RBs | All Bronco RBs

This visual is the zoomed in version of the bottom right quadrant (bad defense vs RBs). The defenses included in tthis viz are still defenses we want to target but with less confidence than the previous viz. These defenses do a good job of holding opposing RBs to a one dimensional game. Fortunately for RBs facing these defenses – they should still be able to wrack up yards on the ground. The color of the circle is Draft Kings Points per game (blue > 25 & orange < 25). The size of the circle is total TDs allowed. 

RBs I Love From This Viz

Joe Mixon | Marlon Mack | Mark Ingram

RBs I Like From This Viz

DeAndre Washington

RBs I Would Not Target From This Viz

All 49er RBs | Kerryon Johnson

This visual is the zoomed in version of the top left quadrant (good defense vs RBs). The defenses included in the low rushing yards & high receiving yards allowed visual are defenses we may want to target or avoid based on match up. These defenses do a great job of limiting rushing yards which will most likely not equate to a good game for opposing RBs. The exception to this is if the RB is heavily targeted in the passing game. The color of the circle is Draft Kings Points per game (blue > 25 & orange < 25) The size of the circle is total TDs allowed. 

RBs I Love From This Viz

Alvin Kamara | Miles Sanders | Kenyan Drake

RBs I Like From This Viz

Ronald Jones | Austin Ekeler

RBs I Would Not Target From This Viz

Peyton Barber | Melvin Gordon | James Conner

The last visual is the zoomed in version of the bottom left quadrant (great defenses vs RBs). The defenses included in the low rushing yards & low receiving yards allowed visual are defenses we want to most likely avoid. These defenses do a great job of limiting opposing RBs on the ground and through the air. Obviously match ups play a big part in setting lineups, but these are defenses that are elite at defending opposing RBs.

RBs I Love From This Viz

Nick Chubb | Aaron Jones

RBs I Like From This Viz

Devin Singletary | Todd Gurley | Carlos Hyde | Leonard Fournette

RBs I Would Not Target From This Viz

All Chief RBs | Derrick Henry | Sony Michel | Le’Veon Bell

 

WR Preview

The first visual is a scatter plot that compares receiving yards allowed (x-axis) & receiving targets allowed (x-axis) to create 4 different categories. The 4 categories are: terrible defense vs WRs, good defense vs WRs, bad defense vs WRs, & great defense vs Wrs. The color of the circle is Draft Kings points per game (blue >35 & orange < 35).

This visual is the zoomed in version of the top right quadrant (terrible defense vs WRs). The defenses included in this viz are the defenses we want to target – these are the defenses most likely to give up a big game to opposing WRs. The color of the circle is Draft Kings Points per game (blue > 35 & orange < 35) The size of the circle is total TDs allowed. 

WRs I Love From This Viz

DeAndre Hopkins | Courtland Sutton | Tyler Lockett | A.J. Brown | MIchael Thomas

WRs I Like From This Viz

Will Fuller | DK Metcalf | Amari Copper | Michael Gallup | Jarvis Landry | Tyler Boyd | James Washington

WRs I Would Not Target From This Viz

T.Y. Hilton | Odell Beckham | Christian Kirk | Larry Fitzgerald | All Bucs WRs

This visual is the zoomed in version of the bottom right quadrant (bad defense vs WRs). The defenses included in this viz are still defenses we want to target because they still give up a lot of receiving yards just with less targets. The color of the circle is Draft Kings Points per game (blue > 35 & orange < 35). The size of the circle is total TDs allowed. 

WRs I Love From This Viz

Terry McLaurin | D.J. Moore

WRs I Like From This Viz

Keenan Allen | Stefon Diggs | Adam Thielen

WRs I Would Not Target From This Viz

All Jaguar WRs

This visual is the zoomed in version of the top left quadrant (good defense vs WRs). These defenses do a great job of limiting receiving yards but still give up a lot of targets to opposing WRs – so the potential of points is there based on the match up. The color of the circle is Draft Kings Points per game (blue > 25 & orange < 25) The size of the circle is total TDs allowed. 

WRs I Love From This Viz

Davante Adams |

WRs I Like From This Viz

Julian Edelman | John Brown

WRs I Would Not Target From This Viz

All 49er WRs

The last visual is the zoomed in version of the bottom left quadrant (great defenses vs WRs). The defenses included in this viz are defenses we want to most likely avoid. These defenses do a great job of limiting opposing WRs on the . Obviously match ups play a big part in setting lineups, but these are defenses that are elite at defending opposing WRs.

WRs I Love From This Viz

Julio Jones | DeVante Parker

WRs I Like From This Viz

Albert Wilson | Sterling Shepard | Greg Ward Jr

WRs I Would Not Target From This Viz

Calvin Ridley | Marquise Brown | All NYJ WRs | All DET WRs | Darius Slayton | All OAK WRs | All CHI WRs | All LAR WRs

Ask me any questions about Data, Visuals, DFS, etc. on Twitter (@StephenDataViz) or Instagram (@StephenDataViz)

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