Welcome back to Cap’s Fantasy Corner, your go-to article series for all of your fantasy football needs! In this week’s edition, I’m breaking down 3 players I believe could be fantasy football busts at their current ADP. If you want the best fantasy football tools, personalized fantasy coaching, and a team of experts at your disposal this season, then be sure to sign-up for our premium fantasy football season pass.
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1. Kyle Pitts, Tight End, Atlanta Falcons
Here comes the “but he’s going to be used like a wide receiver” tweets. Yes, that is likely true, but it’s not like Pitts is the first tight end in NFL history to be used in a WR-like role. To get specific, there is an athletic tight end who comes out every few seasons where this narrative gets driven into fantasy heads worldwide. Evan Engram, Eric Ebron, Noah Fant, all tight ends within the last six years who profile closer to a big-bodied WR than they do a tight end, much like Pitts. Fant in particular has a very similar player profile to Kyle Pitts (except Fant is actually faster).
While Pitts is a phenomenal talent, we need to temper fantasy expectations for rookie tight ends. Historically speaking, they take the longest to develop in the NFL. Even if Pitts is used in a WR role, the odds are not in his favor to return value at his ADP of TE4 overall and a 4th round draft pick. The top-2 rookie tight end seasons of all-time for fantasy football are Rob Gronkowski in 2010 (114.6 points, TE5 overall) and Evan Engram in 2017 (108.2 points, TE5 overall). So, in order to pay off at ADP, Pitts quite literally has to have the greatest rookie tight end season of all-time. If you believe he can do that, great. I, for one, would much rather have some of the WRs currently being drafted in the 4th round (Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp). I think the smarter investment is in one of those WRs.
2. Mike Evans, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans is being drafted as the WR13 overall in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts. With a packed receiving room in Tampa Bay, Evans will be hard-pressed to return value on this ADP. Remember, the Bucs did not have Antonio Brown in the fold until the last 6 weeks of the 2020 NFL season, where he quickly become Brady’s de facto go-to target in the offense. Midway through last season, Evans was borderline droppable, let alone a consistent starter at the position. Drafting him this highly means you’re going to need to bank on him as a reliable starter, which isn’t likely considering he has been an up-and-down week-to-week fantasy option at points in his career.
3. Kareem Hunt, Running Back, Cleveland Browns
Can someone out there give me a good explanation as to why Kareem Hunt is being drafted as the RB23 overall in the 5th round of drafts? I understand, Hunt finished as the RB10 overall in 2020–but that was with star running back Nick Chubb (who is the best running back on the roster) missing 25% of the games last year. With Chubb back, Hunt will be relegated to his weekly backup duties. While Hunt can have some spike weeks, I would much rather have some of the wide receivers around his current ADP (Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore, Brandon Aiyuk to name a few). I’m staying away from Hunt at this ADP. He should be viewed as a handcuff that can have standalone value on a weekly basis, but is not being drafted as such.