What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position.  You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t signed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!

 

QB	RB	WR	TE	Top Stack
J. Hurts	D. Henry	D. Hopkins	T. Kelce	NO/KC
P. Mahomes	A. Kamara	B. Aiyuk	I. Smith	PHI/ARI
L. Jackson	C. Akers	T. Hilton	M. Andrews	DET/TEN
D. Haskins	D. Montgomery	C. Ridley	T. Hockenson	TB/ATL
T. Tagovailoa	D. Cook	T. Lockett	A. Shaheen	MIA/NE

If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

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Quarterbacks:

For our cash games, it is another week of deciding to pay up or down at QB. We have two great options to choose from and unlike other positions, we can’t play both.

Cash

I normally don’t like playing Patrick Mahomes in cash because of his lack of rushing upside, which is something I like to look for in high priced cash QBs. I will break my rule for Mahomes this week. We get him in a dome during a potential shootout. We could easily see upwards of five touchdowns from him. The Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league. So even if they get an early lead, I am not expecting the chiefs to run the ball a lot. They still pass at one of the highest rates in the league while winning. They focus on short underneath passes instead of running it into a stacked box. These are way more efficient than running which is one of the reasons they are so successful.

Jalen Hurts did what we expected from him last week. He was able to supplement his passing game with rushing upside. Making him one of the best value plays last weekend. He gets another easy matchup against the Cardinals who also feature a rushing QB. Last week Hurts ran 18 times for 106 yards, while passing 30 times for 167 yards. If he can get it done on the ground and in the air against a tough Saints defense last week, he should have no troubles against a poor Arizona defense who struggles on the ground and in the air.

According to our PROJECTIONS PORTAL; Mahomes is the highest projected Quarterback on the slate, while Hurts is the second-best value at Quarterback on the slate.

Safe GPP

Lamar Jackson has a smash spot against the Jaguars’ run defense. Since both his top WRs; Brown and Boykin will be absent from the game due to Covid. We have to focus on Jackson’s rushing upside in this matchup. Last week Jackson had around 5 pass attempts against the Browns in the first half before he went in the locker room to poop. Thus losing the lead and forcing Jackson to throw. I don’t expect him to throw for over 150 yards this week so you can easily run him naked or with Andrews for the touchdown upside. Jackson has four games of 80+ rushing yards and only two games under 50 yards. So we are getting at least 5-8 points on the ground just from yards. Making his floor one of the best of the week. Combine that with his touchdown, he is basically an RB1 this week with some passing upside.

Low Owned GPP:

I got burned last week on my low owned QB; Mike Glennon. Unfortunately, I love pain so I am going back to another cheap low owned guy; Dwayne Haskins. I assume Haskins won’t get benched as Glennon did. Haskins has something to prove if he wants to be a starter in this league. It doesn’t seem like Washington will be his home in the long term unless he shows he can have success, which is something he hasn’t shown yet. One of the issues is that Washington’s offense and the offensive line has been awful so there wasn’t really any room for success for most QBs. Now it looks like Washington’s offense has been looking a lot better. So, we can conclude that Haskins has the ability to have success against a poor Seattle defense.

Running Backs:

Cash

Alvin Kamara has become close to a must-play this weekend. After having his fantasy stock plummet due to the absence of Brees and the return of Michael Thomas. Kamara will finally be back to producing top 3 RB fantasy numbers this weekend. His splits with and without Michael Thomas have been insane. He is averaging 29 DK points without Thomas while averaging only 18 with Thomas. His splits with and without Drew Brees have been even more drastic. He is averaging 27.7 DK points with Bress and 14 DK points without Brees. So having Thomas out and Brees in should definitely lead him to 25+ fantasy points in a potential shootout with the Chiefs.

I am prioritizing Kamara before anyone else in my cash and GPP lines.

Derrick Henry is coming off one of his best games of the season. This was his second time he ran for over 200 yards and his fifth two-score game. Henry gets another smash spot this weekend against a poor Detriot run defense who are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. He has reached the 100-yard bonus in four of the last five weeks. Only missing in the Browns game due to game script. The Titans should have no issues taking an early lead in this game and coasting off Henry’s rushing yards the rest of the way.

I might end up coming off of Henry in cash mainly due to salary restraints and look to pay down for both Taylor and Akers in cash. Those are really the four guys I am considering in my cash games and I want three of them in my line.

According to our PROJECTIONS PORTAL; Henry is the highest projected running back on the slate, while Kamara is the best value at running back on the slate.

Safe GPP

Cam Akers is finally getting a huge workload in the Rams backfield. It had turned into a three-headed monster timeshare at one point in the season making all three of those guys unplayable. Luckily for us, it appears that Akers is the lead back and we get him at the perfect timing against a Jet defense that is awful against the run and the game script will be on his side. Akers has seen his snap share increase in both of the last two games. He played 63% of the snaps against the Cardinals and 79% of the snaps against the Patriots last week. This increase in snap share and price makes him one of my favorite plays on the board.

Low Owned GPP

David Montgomery has slowly moved into fantasy relevance over the last couple of weeks. This is mainly due to having more than favorable matchups. Over the last three games, Montgomery has topped 27.0 DK points in all three contests. The increase in targets since Cohen went down with an injury has really increased his fantasy stock and floor. Receptions are key for running back’s floors in fantasy. Players like Derrick Henry, even though he is one of the best running backs in the league, can be taken out of the game due to game script. So Montgomery won’t be taken out of the game if they are losing which instills more confidence in the play.

Wide Receivers:

Cash

Once Slay was ruled out, DeAndre Hopkins became close to a lock for me. The Eagles defense is awful outside of Slay, I see no reason why Hopkins won’t dominate this matchup. Hopkins is second only to Davante Adams with a 29% target share, while Adams holds a 34% target share. Hopkins also has a 34% air yards share to go along with his high target share. Hopkins has at least seven targets in every game this season outside of the Dolphins game. The Cardinals may also be without Chase Edmonds this week, who was a safety blanket for Murray, which could lead to one or two more targets for Hopkins. Now without Slay, Hopkins should be matched up against Kevin Seymour who is allowing the second-most yards per route covered with 2.34.

Brandon Aiyuk gets a huge boast with all the injuries to the 49ers pass catchers. They will be without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel this week. Qiyuk should have zero issues seeing the most targets on the team this week. Since week 8, Aiyuk is tied for the second-highest target share in the league with 31%. Only behind Adams and tied with Diggs and Landry. The 49ers love to run the ball so if they get an early lead then there is a chance that Aiyuk will get game scripted out of the game, but he is too cheap for the upside he provides. Even if the 49ers get an early lead and Mullens only passes the ball 20 times, 8 targets at his price is still extremely valuable and hard to pass up.

According to our PROJECTIONS PORTAL; Hopkins comes in as karma rank number 1, while Aiyuk is the 5th best value play at WR.

Safe GPP

TY Hilton vs the Texans, it’s a thing. We already saw it earlier in the year. Hilton was basically a non-factor in this offense, but that Texans game really rejuvenated him. He has four touchdowns over the last three games while seeing at a 30% air yards share and 19% target share. Hilton has averaged 96 receiving yards per game in his career against the Texans, while putting up at least 15 DK points in 11 out of 17 games. This Texans secondary is awful, they are allowing the 9th most passing yards in the league, 10th most passing touchdowns, with only three interceptions on the season. Rivers should have no problems getting the ball to Hilton this week.

Low Owned GPP

With Julio expected to miss another game, we can feel confident about playing Calvin Ridley at barely any ownership. Ridley has had himself a breakout season this year and in games without Julio, he gets peppered with targets. His high price should keep his ownership down, so we can get amazing leverage on the field. Ridley has a great chance of receiving the 100-yard onus with the Falcons most likely playing from behind. Ridley has played 4 games without Julio this season, he has 9+ targets in all four and has gone over 100 yards in all but one game.

Julio Jones	Games	Tar/Game	Rec/Game	Yds/Game	100 Yard	Tar Share	Air Yds Share
With	8	8	5	76.1	37.50%	21%	33%
Without	4	11	6.75	105	75%	31%	52%