Welcome to the Week 1 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Carolina Panthers
Teddy Bridgewater/Christian McCaffrey/DJ Moore
If you read my Top GPP Plays article for this week, you know how much I love this game. Bridgewater is coming off of a solid season, averaging 228.3 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on 32.5 attempts per game in 6 games (5 starts). He was slightly above average in adjusted yards per attempt (7.5) and touchdown percentage (4.6%). Bridgewater also gets the benefit of playing in Joe Brady’s offense in 2020. He gets a great initial matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who allowed 256.7 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game. They also allowed a 6.3% touchdown rate in 2020. Oakland didn’t address their struggles with their passing defense, and this is the perfect matchup for the beginning of a Bridgewater breakout.
McCaffrey was the premier running back in the NFL in 2019, totaling 2,392 yards and 19 touchdowns. He was a focal point of the Carolina passing attack, recording 116 receptions for 1,005 yards and 4 touchdowns on 142 targets. McCaffrey was also a major part of the passing attack in the red zone, leading the team with 15 red zone targets, turning those into 4 touchdowns. The Raiders only allowed 98.1 rushing yards per game, although they did allow 15 rushing touchdowns. It isn’t necessarily an elite matchup for McCaffrey but he’s as matchup-proof of a player as there is in the NFL and a must-start in a Carolina stack.
Moore turned into an elite receiver for the Panthers with Kyle Allen as his main quarterback. He saw 135 targets, posting 87 receptions for 1,175 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games. Moore only saw 12 red zone targets but turn them into a pair of touchdowns. He quietly posted 1,499 air yards with an 11.1 aDOT. I expect his aDOT to increase with Brady as his offensive coordinator and his efficiency to increase with Bridgewater taking over for Allen. Even with Moore taking a massive step forward in 2019, I believe he’ll continue to progress, specifically with touchdowns this season.
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley
Ryan is coming off of another dominant season, throwing for 4,466 yards and 26 touchdowns on 616 attempts. He boasts elite upside, scoring 35.9 and 33.94 fantasy points in back-to-back games against the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals last season. Ryan gets a great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend. They allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game (263.9) in 2019, although they only allowed 19 passing touchdowns last season. I expect Ryan to continue his dominant fantasy play in a game set at 49 points this week.
Jones was an elite receiver once again in 2019. He saw 157 targets, recording 99 receptions for 1,394 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jones led Atlanta with 16 red zone targets, turning them into 5 touchdowns. Most importantly, he led the NFL with 1,913 air yards while boasting a 12.2 aDOT last season. Matthew Freedman tweet an interesting stat on Jones – Since 2014, he’s averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game as a home underdog. That’s the situation he’s in this week, and Seattle doesn’t feature a single player that will be able to slow him down.
Ridley is coming off of somewhat of a breakout season. He posted 63 receptions for 866 yards and 7 touchdowns on 93 targets. Ridley also recorded 4 touchdowns on 10 red zone targets. Furthermore, he saw 1,246 air yards with a 13.4 aDOT in 2019. Ridley was a spectacular option when he saw volume, though. He saw 8+ targets in 5 games last season, averaging 23.5 fantasy points per game in those contests. He’s likely to be a larger factor in the Atlanta offense in 2020, making him close to a must play at his current price tag, regardless of whether you’re stacking Atlanta or not.
Oakland Raiders
Derek Carr/Henry Ruggs III/Bryan Edwards
Carr takes quite a bit of heat as a quarterback but he ended the 2019 season with 4,054 yards, 21 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions on 513 pass attempts. He lacked upside but closed the season out with 20+ fantasy points in 3 of his final 4 games while throwing only 1 touchdown in a trio of those games. Oakland felt comfortable only adding Marcus Mariota to the mix this season, suggesting they’re confident Carr can find his early career success. He gets a matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who only allowed 231.0 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns in 2019. With that being said, Carolina lost multiple key pieces on their defense and they are projected to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.
The Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs III with the 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft. They selected him as the first wide receiver off the board in that draft. Ruggs is a play-maker in every sense of the word, blazing a 4.27 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He scored a touchdown on 20.9% of his receptions the final two years at Alabama. Overall, he totaled 86 receptions for 1,487 yards and 18 touchdowns as a sophomore and junior. His role in the offense is a bit unknown but he’s locked in as the starting Z receiver. Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has given his top receiver a heavy workload in the past, and we may see that with Ruggs his rookie season. Even if we don’t, he has the upside to exceed value on only a few catches because of his speed.
Oakland wasn’t done with only Ruggs in the draft, though, as they selected Bryan Edwards with the 81st pick in the third round, as well. He broke his foot training for the NFL Combine but is a big-bodied player that projects well as a possession receiver in the NFL. He quickly won the starting X spot. Edwards doesn’t have the pure upside of someone like Ruggs but he could be featured heavily in the red zone as one of the biggest targets on the field.
This stack is extremely cheap but features quite a bit of upside depending on the focal points of Oakland’s offense. Keep in mind, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs are likely to be key options, making this a bit risker, even with the top receivers. Carr should only be stacked with Ruggs and Edwards in tournaments this weekend.
StatHero
The most important note for StatHero is its scoring system. It’s different from what you’re likely used to, and we need to note what the most important aspects are. Quarterbacks are far and away the most important position, specifically passing yards. They get 0.05 fantasy points for every 1 passing yard compared to only 0.1 fantasy points per 1 rushing or receiving yard. For instance, a quarterback would receive 15 fantasy points for 300 yards passing. He would need 3.75 passing touchdowns to reach that. Running backs and receivers would need 1,50 yards to hit that number. They would need 2.5 touchdowns to score 15 fantasy points.
Tight ends are another major part of their scoring. They will receive 1.5 fantasy points per reception while running backs and wide receivers only receive 1 fantasy point per reception. With StatHero’s current scoring system, it could be a key to stack a team with a dominant quarterback and tight end pairing to go along with the other options on the offense.
The final scoring that could make or break your lineup is the distance bonus. Quarterbacks receive a slightly smaller bonus for long passing touchdowns, while running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends get a bit more of a bonus for touchdowns. Ultimately, you want touchdowns to come from 10+ yards out, which is the distance the bonus’ start at.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson/Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews
Jackson was playing at a separate level compared to the NFL last season. He threw for 3,492 yards and 37 touchdowns on 460 pass attempts. He also added 1,349 yards and 7 touchdowns on 196 rushing attempts, recording 100+ rushing yards in 6 of his 16 games. Jackson gets an interesting matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who allowed only 216.9 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns last season. With that being said, Jackson took advantage of their run defense in 2019, totaling 169 rushing yards in their matchups. The Ravens are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 48 points giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 27.8 points.
Marquise Brown enjoyed a solid rookie season, posting 53 receptions for 710 yards and 7 touchdowns on 82 targets. His role was extremely inconsistent due to injury, as he saw two or fewer targets in a trio of games. Brown quietly saw 13 red zone targets in 2019, recording 4 touchdowns. Surprisingly, he only saw 782 air yards with an 11.0 aDOT. His speed allows him to create yards with the ball in his hands. Cleveland is dealing with injuries in their secondary as Greedy Williams and Kevin Johnson have been ruled out while MJ Stewart is questionable. Brown comes with elite upside on StatHero because of his ability to score from anywhere on the field.
Andrews is coming off of an elite season, recording 68 receptions for 891 yards and 10 touchdowns on 105 targets. He led the Ravens with 19 red zone targets and 9 red zone touchdowns. He also ranked third in the NFL in air yards (1,035) for tight ends while leading all tight ends with 50+ targets in aDOT (10.6). The Browns linebackers are likely to struggle in 2020 and they lost Grant Delpit for the season earlier in the offseason. In other words, Andrews will be a matchup nightmare for their defense. He already gets an added bonus for his position on StatHero and he could end up being one of the best options on the slate this weekend.
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