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NFL DFS Week 16 – Ben’s GPP Breakdown

Hey everyone! Due to some real-life issues I wasn’t able to put the time into a full game-by-game breakdown like usual, so I am substituting by breaking down my favorite tournament plays, to go along with my cash game article. If you like the format of this article, or have any feedback on it, let me know, as we could look into adding it into our content schedule for the 2020 NFL season.

Quarterback

Kyler Murray- Murray is my favorite Quarterback for tournaments on the Week 16 Main Slate and he presents strong leverage off of Russell Wilson who is projected to be much higher-owned in the same game. Many will fear that a matchup on the road in Seattle is too much for the Rookie to handle, but this is not the Seahawks defense that we once knew. They’re a little bit banged up, and they also come into this week bottom-eight in QB pressures. This should allow Murray time to pick out his receivers, and he should also have the option to run — they’ve given up the seventh-most rushing yards to Quarterbacks this season. Ultimately, Murray was one of the highest-owned QB’s on DraftKings last weekend, but because Kenyan Drake trolled him with four touchdowns we should avoid him? I think he ran incredibly bad last weekend, and I’m going to double-down and be well overweight to the field to him this Sunday.

 

Dwayne Haskins- If you want to get weird and win GPPs, sometimes it’s needed to play players that you don’t necessarily feel very good about. This week, that’s Dwayne Haskins. We knew coming into the season that Haskins was an incredibly raw prospect, but he was able to reach 20 DK points for the first time in his young career last weekend and now gets an even better matchup against the New York Giants. The G-Men allow the eighth-most DK points per game to Quarterbacks, and they aren’t particularly great at getting pressure on Quarterbacks which has been the biggest issue with Haskins thus far. Will Grier has a much tougher matchup and is a complete unknown at this point, so I see no reason not to just make the $400 jump to Young Simba in tournaments.

 

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Running Back

Leonard Fournette- I foolishly played Lenny over Saquon Barkley in cash games last week, but that won’t keep me away from him against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16. It’s apparent he will be low-owned relative to the other options priced around him, but we also will get some natural leverage with people focusing on Devonta Freeman in this game and not wanting to play two backs. He continues to get unlucky with touchdowns which is part of why I keep getting sucked into him weekly, the big game has to come right? Take a look at where he ranks in red zone attempts, and guys around him:

*attempts inside the 10 yard line*

Fournette: 23, 3 touchdowns

Gurley: 24, 9 touchdowns

Ingram: 26, 9 touchdowns

Michel: 22, 5 touchdowns

This can’t possibly continue, right? The usage has remained strong, he;s literally just not scoring touchdowns and if we can catch the week where he finds the end zone twice he can truly smash. The Falcons haven’t been horrible against RB’s, but I’m also not scared of the matchup and any time I can get bellcow usage at under 10% ownership, I will take it.

 

Nick Chubb- If the Browns want any hope of keeping this game close, it’s though Nick Chubb, who has still been able to top 15 touches in every game that Kareem Hunt has been active. Obviously Brandon Williams was out in their first meeting, but the Ravens are still much more beatable on the ground than through the air even with him in the lineup. The Browns have really nothing to play for at this point, and allowing Nick Chubb to secure the rushing title would be a good deed in what has been a lost season for them. I don’t expect anyone else to be on him, and that’s fine, but my bold call of the week is Chubb tops 100 yards with three total touchdowns, two on the ground and one through the air.

 

Note: I just added this blurb into my cash game piece as well, but Derrick Henry was just bumped down to Questionable and with them bringing up a back from the practice squad, he could miss this game. That would really open things up with everyone focusing on DeAndre Washington for cheap right now, stay tuned to the livestream on Sunday morning or our Discord channel for my Final Thoughts once we get news.

 

Stacks

Kyler Murray-Christian Kirk- This will not be a secret on Sunday — the game features the highest O/U on the slate at 51 — but I do think using Murray with Kirk and running it back with Seahawks guys will give you enough of an edge. It’s clear that the Seattle stack will be more popular, and if you simpy pivot to the Arizona side you have a plethora of run-back options in Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Jacob Hollister. Some might be scared of the matchup with Patrick Peterson for Melcalf, but Pat Pete has not been himself since coming off suspension this season and DK has the speed to give him fits if he’s truly not 100%. Lockett got back on track with an 8-120-1 line last weekend, and is quietly tied for second with Michael Thomas in red zone targets.

As for Kirk, he clearly has more upside than Larry Fitzgerald at this point of his career, and it feels like he’s due for a big week. Kirk has 11 red zone targets this season with just one touchdown, and has seen 40 targets total over the last five games.

 

Dwayne Haskins-Terry McLaurin- I already analyzed Haskins above, and if I’m going to stack him in GPPs it has to be with Terry McLaurin over Steven Sims Jr. I wrote Sims Jr up as a cash game play, but he has nowhere near the ceiling of McLaurin especially after he finally linked up with Haskins for a long touchdown last week. He’s seen 28 targets over the last four weeks, and with Daniel Jones back at the helm for the Giants, we can run this back with either of Sterling Shepard or Golden Tate.

 

Philip Rivers-Austin Ekeler-Mike Williams- This one’s for all the narratives! There’s not a better spot for Philip Rivers to make what could very well be his last “home” start for the Los Angeles Chargers. He draws the Oakland Raiders who have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to QB’s this season as well as the third-most touchdown passes. It seems like Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are projected for the most ownership from this game, so simply grabbing Rivers + Ekeler and Williams is going to give us the ceiling we need to win tournaments without the ownership. The Raiders have struggled mightily with allowing big plays this season, and that plays into the strengths of both Ekeler and Williams. They have over a 26 implied team total, yet it seems like nobody is talking about them and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this stack lead you to the top of the leader boards late Sunday afternoon.

 

DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

 

 

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