Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky
Trubisky has seen mixed results in 2020, recording 432 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 64 attempts through 2 games. His ridiculous 7.8% touchdown rate sits well above his career average (3.9%), although so does his adjusted yards per attempt. Trubisky has also added 42 yards on 7 carries this season, flashing 25 fantasy point upside in a game that he was forced to throw from start to finish.
Trubisky is in the final year of his rookie contract. He beat out Nick Foles, who the Chicago Bears traded for in the offseason, suggesting he could have taken a step forward during training camp. Trubisky also has a solid cast around him with Allen Robinson leading the way. David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Javon Wims, and Cordarrelle Patterson are high upside options in the receiving game that can turn small gains into big plays. Trubisky hasn’t necessarily looked dominant in 2020 but he’s a player that can take advantage of good matchups, especially for a low price tag.
That’s what he’ll get this week, as Trubisky will face off against the Atlanta Falcons. They are currently allowing 372.0 passing yards per game while also giving up 5 touchdowns without any interceptions. Atlanta has done well at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks but they have been susceptible to the big play. The Falcons currently rank third in air yards (417) allowed per completion while also leading the league in yards after catch (355) on completion. Trubisky will have plenty of opportunities to take his shots as a +3 point underdog but his receivers will also be able to create after the catch, adding to his upside. He’s still an extremely cheap option on this slate but this is the ideal matchup to use him in. It’s now or never for Trubisky.
Running Back
Joshua Kelly
Kelly has performed well through two games as a rookie for the Los Angeles Chargers. He ran for 124 yards and 1 touchdown on 35 attempts. Kelly also added 2 receptions for 49 yards on 3 targets. Most importantly, Kelly ranks fourth in the NFL with 11 red zone rush attempts, although he only scored once on them. It’s clear he’s the more conventional running back for Los Angeles than Austin Ekeler.
Kelly has only played 38.9% of the offensive snaps this season but he has seen a major role when on the field. He’s seen 48.6% of the rush attempts by running backs and 37.5% of the running back targets. Kelly also saw a massive increase in his role last week with Justin Herbert starting, totaling 25 touches against the Kansas City Chiefs after recording 12 touches against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chargers are a -6.5 point favorite in this game, suggesting they could be leading throughout, allowing LA to rely more heavily on Kelly than they would in games that they are losing early on.
He also gets an elite matchup against the Carolina Panthers this weekend. Through 2 games, Carolina is allowing 127.5 rushing yards per game. They’re also allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season. Most importantly, the Panthers have allowed a league-high 6 rushing touchdowns in 2020, giving way for Kelly, the Chargers clear-cut red zone runner, to find success. As if that isn’t enough, Los Angeles features the fourth-best rushing offensive/defensive line matchup on this slate, per Pro Football Focus. Kelly is likely to go overlooked because he isn’t a bell cow running back but he saw 25 touches in his last game and gets one of the best matchups on the slate. He’s also far too cheap for his potential touchdown upside.
Kenyan Drake
Drake has found moderate success early this season but because of a lack of volume. He has recorded 160 yards and 1 touchdown on 40 touches, including 4 receptions on 4 targets. Drake has seen 45.5% of the red zone rush attempts with Kyler Murray taking the majority of the remaining attempts. Surprisingly, Drake has yet to see a red zone target, though, and he has been used significantly less in the passing game than he was last season.
Drake has been on the field early and often, though, playing 67.9% of Arizona’s offensive snaps in 2020. The only other running back to find the field for the Cardinals offense is Chase Edmonds, who has played 34.6% of the snaps thus far. It seems Drake is the clear-cut RB1, as he has out-touched Edmonds 40/15, although the latter has been more involved in the passing game, including playing out wide at times.
Drake gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are allowing a league-high 204.0 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry in 2020. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns thus far but teams have simply been scoring through the air after working their way down the field on the ground. The Arizona Cardinals are -5.5 point favorites this weekend, suggesting Drake could be in line for another 20+ carries in this game. While he has found some success in 2020, he has yet to flash his true upside. In 2 of his final 3 games last season, Drake totaled 303 yards and 6 touchdowns on 46 rush attempts. Those totals may be a bit ambitious but he makes an elite option in this matchup.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green
Green has struggled through 2 games in 2020, recording only 8 receptions for 80 yards without finding the end zone. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as he boasts a team-high 22 targets, which is near twice as many as anyone else. Green has seen a 15.9 aDOT this season with a team-high 350 air yards. He also ranks fifth in the NFL in his share of his team’s air yards (43.4%). He has seen a pair of red zone targets this season, although he wasn’t able to secure a catch on them.
Green has played 63.8% of the Cincinnati Bengal’s offensive snaps in 2020, trailing only Tyler Boyd for their receivers. Even with the struggles, it’s clear Cincinnati has massive plans for Green this season. His career catch rate is over 20% higher than he’s recorded in 2020, suggesting it’s only a matter of time he breaks out.
Green gets an interesting matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles this week. They’re only allowing 208.5 passing yards per game in 2020 but they’re also allowing the fourth-highest adjusted yards per attempt (9.1) in the league, suggesting their baseline success could be because of matchups rather than efficiency. The Eagles have allowed 4 passing touchdowns this season, as well. Goff torched their defense last week before the Los Angeles Rams stopped throwing the ball. With Cincinnati being a +5.5 point underdog in this game, I don’t expect them to stop throwing, similarly to the last two weeks. Green is due for massive regression, regardless of how good he is anymore. He’s a volume play with elite upside if he finds his connect with Joe Burrow this weekend.
D.J. Moore
Moore is coming off of the quietest 120 yard game in the history of the NFL. Through 2 weeks, he has turned 22 targets into 12 receptions for 174 yards, although he has yet to score. Moore’s biggest issue last season was finding the end zone and that doesn’t seem to be solved as he owns only one red zone target in 2020. He has seen 47.6% of his team’s air yards, ranking fourth in the NFL in that category. Overall, he boasts a 12.4 aDOT with 273 air yards through 2 contests.
Unsurprisingly, Moore leads the Carolina Panthers receivers in snaps, playing 87.9% of the offensive snaps this season. His role in the offense could grow more this week with Christian McCaffrey out, as well. McCaffrey has only seen nine targets this season but Curtis Samuel is expected to play more in the backfield, potentially opening the door for Moore to seem an even larger target share at receiver. More importantly, I’m expecting Moore to get more red zone work as the season progresses, adding to his upside.
Moore gets a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are allowing only 231.0 passing yards per game this season. They’ve also held their opponents to only two passing touchdowns and that success looks to be sustainable. Moore is entirely too cheap for a player with his role in the offense, though. He’s a target hog with great air yard metrics and a larger red zone role coming. The Panthers are also +6.5 point underdogs, suggesting they’ll be throwing from the start to the finish once again. Moore certainly comes with risk in this matchup but there are very few receivers that can match his per-dollar upside on this slate.
Tight End
Logan Thomas
Thomas’ transition to tight end has worked out extremely well for the Washington Football Team. He’s turned a team-high 17 targets into 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdown. Thomas has also seen 50% of Washington’s red zone targets, turning three targets into one touchdown thus far.
It’s clear Thomas is a massive part of Washington’s offense, as he’s seen 26.8% of the team’s air yards through 2 games. Overall, he enters this game with an 8.3 aDOT while seeing 141 total air yards. Thomas could be more efficient but he ranks fourth in the NFL for tight ends for the percentage of his team’s air yards with Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce slotting directly behind him.
Thomas gets an elite matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who are allowing 277.5 passing yards per game in 2020. They have also given up 6 passing touchdowns this season. Through 2 weeks, Cleveland has allowed Mark Andrews, C.J. Uzomah, and Drew Sample to combine for 16 receptions for 145 yards and 3 touchdowns on 21 targets. Sample did the majority of his damage after Uzomah was forced from the game with an Achilles injury. Thomas is likely to be featured heavily on the offense once again and Sample is likely the only tight end keeping Thomas from being chalk this weekend. Still, he’s an elite tournament pivot in arguably the best matchup on the slate.
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