What’s up everyone! This is my fourth season breaking down every game of the weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited that football is back. If you are interested in my core plays plus final thoughts cheat sheet for every main slate, you can browse our packages here. With that being said, let’s get to the analysis!
NOTE: The games with Covid issues will have analysis posted once we get confirmation that they will play.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: We kick off Week 5 with one of my favorite spots on the slate, the Ravens against the Bengals. Two mid-week DNP’s have all quiet on the Lamar Jackson front, and hopefully it’s enough to keep ownership in check in tournaments. Jackson had two monster scores against this defense last season, which makes sense seeing as they run one of the most man-heavy schemes in the NFL. This matchup screams ceiling, and I plan on being overweight to Jackson even amidst the missed practice concerns. Per usual, the stacking partners with Jackson are Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews. Andrews himself has missed practice this week, and his status for this game seems at least somewhat up in the air. My favorite play regardless is Marquise Brown, who feels due for positive regression. He still leads the Ravens in targets and is third-overall in the NFL with a 44% Air Yard share. He’s yet to find the end zone this season, and was tackled at the one in Week 4. The Bengals have surrendered some big games to perimeter receivers, including allowing Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham to finally get on the same page. I think Brown is a good play in all formats as a one-off, and my favorite partner with Jackson.
This is also a great matchup on the ground for Baltimore, but I don’t play guessing games in DFS. I tend to shy away from RBBC’s, and won’t have any shares of Ravens backs unless I was looking to MME.
This is Joe Burrow’s first meeting with the Ravens, but their defense doesn’t come in with top form. They allowed a really good game to Dwayne Haskins (314 yards) last week, and this gives me confidence that Burrow can at least play well enough to prevent a fourth quarter rest for Jackson. I’m always willing to bet on talent, so I do think you could consider Burrow in GPPs. Speaking on betting on talent, that same case can be made for Joe Mixon. We finally got the big game we have been waiting for from him in Week 4, and the most important part of that is he was used much more heavily in the passing game. This bodes well for this matchup, given that we expect the Bengals to be trailing. My favorite Bengals player, and favorite candidate in Ravens run-back stacks is Tyler Boyd. Boyd was unlucky in Week 4, having a touchdown called back, and I have been attacking the Ravens in the slot since the beginning of last season. They have really good outside corners, but are beatable over the middle of the field and Boyd has been dominating the market share of targets from Burrow over the last two games. You can also consider someone like Tee Higgins in large field tournaments, but Boyd takes the cake for me and he will be low-owned.
Cash Game Pool: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown
GPP Pool: Mark Andrews, Tyler Boyd, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Drew Sample
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Total: 53.5
Outlook: Maybe the top overall game on the slate, this game will command heavy attention in all DFS formats. Starting with Teddy Bridgewater, who has arguably the best matchup on the slate. Few defenses are as banged up as Atlanta is right now, and they’ve now allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (13). That also comes with the most DK points allowed to QB’s through four games by a wide margin. Bridgewater flashed his ceiling in Week 4 with a 27 point performance, and he is the top graded quarterback play on this slate for me on both sites. Stacking Bridgewater is a move I will be looking to make in all formats, and we can start with Mike Davis. The Falcons have actually been good against the run, but that doesn’t even matter given that the Panthers are using Davis like CMC-lite. He’s racked up 23 targets over the last three games while the Falcons have coughed up the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing backs. Like Bridgewater, Davis is one of the top plays on this slate in all formats.
Both Robby Anderson and DJ Moore stick out as top plays as well, given the expected shootout. They both have over 30 targets this season, with the next closest player being Davis and his 23. The Falcons rank bottom-five in YAC-allowed, which sets up extremely well for this Panthers offense. Anderson has been balling post-Adam Gase, and is sure to be a popular play on both sites. He makes sense in cash games, while Moore can be used as a pivot seeing nearly identical usage as Anderson.
Ryan had one of his famous disappearing games in their Week 4 loss to the Packers, and showed exactly why I’m hesitant to roster him in cash games. He is definitely a strong play in tournaments at home, but this Panthers defense has been more of a run-funnel in 2020. Gurley found the box twice in Week 4, but his lack of pass game involvement eliminates him from my player pool personally.
The pass catchers are where we can look for the Falcons, especially with Julio Jones looking more doubtful by the day. Ridley’s 0 in Week 4 could make some shy away, but he is too good of a play to ignore for me. He racked up 13 targets in the other game Jones missed this season, and is arguably the top WR play on the slate. The supplementary guys like Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus will crack my pool as well. I’m a Gage fan and he has a plus matchup inside against the Panthers zone defense, while Zaccheaus is priced at the minimum on DK. I don’t like him in tournaments at high-ownership, but he can be considered in cash games at that price tag.
Cash Game Pool: Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, Calvin Ridley, Olamide Zaccheaus (DK)
GPP Pool: DJ Moore, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Vegas Total: 54
Outlook: Another flashy game as evidenced by the 54 O/U, there are plays to be had here in all formats. Starting with the Texans, who will play their first game sans Bill O’Brien. I can’t expect Tim Kelly/Romeo Crennel to install a hyper-aggressive game plan, but I can expect Deshaun Watson to play inspired football in an above-average matchup. The Jaguars have allowed over 22 DK points per game this season, and this could be a spot we finally see Watson have an efficient outing. We can expect the same for David Johnson, who has seen bell cow type usage even with Duke Johnson back in the mix. Joe Mixon flamed the Jaguars both on the ground and through the air in Week 4, and that has Johnson firmly on my tournament radar. When looking to stack Watson or for a strong one-off in any lineup, look no further than Will Fuller. Fuller was one of my top plays in Week 4, and he responded with a monster 25 DK point game — not to mention a touchdown called back at the end of the game. The matchup is better on the inside for Randall Cobb, but I prefer Fuller and his ceiling. Fuller still logs about a quarter of his snaps in the slot.
On the Jaguars side, we can definitely be interested against this horrific Texans defense. If you want to know exactly how bad they are, Houston is the last team in the NFL without an interception. I don’t mind some exposure to Gardner Minshew in tournaments, but his weapons are my primary focus. DJ Chark has upside in any matchup, but my favorite play is Laviska Shenault. He has an A+ matchup against Vernon Hargreaves, and Shenault has seen his usage rise in every game this season.
I also like James Robinson in tournaments, and may even consider being overweight. Robinson is another guy that’s locked into a bell cow role, and only the Raiders and Lions have given up more fantasy points to running backs this season.
Cash Game Pool: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Laviska Shenault
GPP Pool: Gardner Minshew, DJ Chark, James Robinson, David Johnson
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: With a low 44 O/U, I don’t have a ton of interest here with some of the other elite games on this slate. The reason for my lack of interest, is the severe mismatch in the trenches. This Steelers defensive line vs the Eagles banged up offensive line will have Carson Wentz having nightmares on Saturday night. I can’t trust him with little to no time to throw — the Steelers rank first in the NFL with 59 QB pressures this season. Miles Sanders is a volume-based tournament play, while the Eagles pass catchers are so banged up I just don’t have any interest on a full slate. Zach Ertz looks legitimately washed, and I prefer other higher-ceiling options if spending up to the mid-tier.
The Steelers are in the same boat, they have a better offensive line than the Eagles but Philly does also have a nasty defensive front, leading the NFL in sacks as a team. They have been torched by tight ends this season allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position, which bodes well for Eric Ebron. He saw a season-high 8 targets in their last game, and now they are rested coming off a bye due to the Titans test results.
I was completely comfortable attacking Darius Slay coming into the season, but he has quietly played well for this Eagles defense. He will do his part covering Diontae Johnson, and it’s enough to relegate him to tournaments only with other solid options in his price range. The slot and the middle of the field has been the place to attack the Eagles secondary, which sets up better for JuJu Smith-Schuster. James Conner projects for another heavy workload, but I won’t have any exposure playing only three to four lineups personally.
I really like Ebron in all formats, and I think JuJu is a great pivot in tournaments. Other than that, I’m not overly excited with this game.
Cash Game Pool: Eric Ebron
GPP Pool: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Football Team
Vegas Total: 46.5
Outlook: Despite having a total a few points higher than Steelers/Eagles, this is the ugliest game of the week in my opinion. I have no actual idea what the Washington Football Team is doing. The classic NFL ego-driven management won again early this week when Ron Rivera benched Dwayne Haskins for Kyle Allen, whom he coached in Carolina. Allen is clearly not the answer, and it’s a head-scratching move nonetheless. The Rams are fourth in the NFL in sacks this year, fueled by perennial DPOY candidate Aaron Donald. I would expect Donald to constantly be in the face of Allen, someone that has a history of struggling with fumbles. This hurts the value of Terry McLaurin and every other Washington pass catcher, relegating them to MME darts only. The one player I am interested in for GPPs is Antonio Gibson, who is coming off season-high usage. He has scored a touchdown in three straight, and should continue to see his volume and touches rise as the season goes on.
The Rams are the run-heaviest team in the NFL and sport one of the most perplexing RBBC’s with Cam Akers expected to return from injury. It’s tough to predict Sean McVay’s rotation, and even though I liked Henderson last week I will be fading this spot going forward. Both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have strong matchups, but I can’t trust the Rams to keep the foot on the gas if they get up, which I think they will. I would want some exposure to one of them in tournaments, and for now I will lean Kupp who has returned to form over the last few games.
Tyler Higbee could pick up some ownership, but as long as Gerald Everett is there I can’t get excited.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Cooper Kupp, Antonio Gibson
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: Looks like it was a false positive for the Jets! Analysis will be added on Satrurday AM
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Total: 54
Outlook: This is one of the most interesting spots on the slate, and will be a key game to get right when it comes to tournaments. Obviously this 54 point total is one we want exposure to, but ultimately I think this game will end up being over-owned in tournaments due to what the Cowboys have been doing the last few weeks. Dak Prescott and co have been forced into nut game-script getting down big to both Atlanta and Cleveland in recent weeks…while I just don’t expect the Giants to be able to score like those two teams. That’s not to say they can’t, I just don’t have faith in it personally and I’m going to be underweight here compared to other spots like the Baltimore game.
Anyone on Dallas is cash game playable at this point, but Zeke Elliott takes the cake for me. He has seen career-high passing game usage this season, and would benefit greatly from being up rather than trailing for once. Even with Tyron Smith out, he will be an anchor for my cash game builds on both sites. Any of the Dallas receivers are viable in all formats, I think Cooper will be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate so would pivot to Lamb or Dalton Schultz in tournaments.
On the Giants side, I expect both Darius Slayton and Evan Engram to garner attention. Of the two, Engram is my favorite and I will be considering him in my cash game builds. Daniel Jones figures to be a popular DFS tournament play, but with Bridgewater only slightly more and projecting for sub-10% ownership, my interest lies there when talking about cheap quarterbacks.
You can certainly game stack this game, and I think it will be a popular move. I like other spots on this slate better, but it’s not a game I’m ignoring. Zeke + Engram are my clear favorite targets here.
Cash Game Pool: Zeke Elliott, Dalton Schultz, Evan Engram
GPP Pool: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Darius Slayton
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Vegas Total: 51.5
Outlook: Looking at this game you think you’d be heavily interested seeing that total, but then you realize that the 49ers account for over 30 of those projected points. I can’t get a good read on this spot, the 49ers, like the Rams, want to be a run-first team, but they also see a bump with Jimmy Garoppolo back healthy for a cupcake matchup. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both back as well, and with George Kittle coming off a monster primetime performance, this is the best we will have seen this San Fran offense in weeks. I think Kittle is a smash play in all formats in this matchup, but the backfield is the situation I’m watching the most. The Dolphins are bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and installed as massive home favorites, you would expect the 9ers to be in control here. Raheem Mostert is listed as a GTD, if he were to miss that would clear the way for Jerick McKinnon to see another 90% snap share. This would vault McKinnon to the top of my board in all formats, but is something entirely contingent on news this weekend.
As for the Dolphins, the 49ers defense is still extremely banged up and will be without two or three starting corners again on Sunday. This opens the door for DeVante Parkers, who looked much healthier last weekend against the Seahawks. I won’t be going back to Fitzmagic, but I do think Parker is a great pivot in tournaments. Leading the team in targets, he clearly has the strongest connection with Fitzpatrick.
Cash Game Pool: George Kittle, Jerick McKinnon (if Mostert out)
GPP Pool: DeVante Parker, Raheem Mostert (if in)
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: While this isn’t the ugliest game on the slate, I’m expecting a slow-paced affair on Sunday afternoon with two teams that want to run the ball. The Browns have quietly allowed the second-most touchdown through the air through four weeks, but even that won’t get me interested in Phil Rivers for DFS. It does shine some light on both TY Hilton and Trey Burton, however. Hilton continues to look washed, but the matchup is so good on paper I can see going back to him one more time in tournaments. As for Burton, the Browns continue to hemorrhage fantasy points to tight ends. Burton was targeted five times in his first game off IR last week, and has the athleticism to succeed in this matchup.
The Colts seem more and more intent on rolling with a committee in the backfield, which is frustrating for Jonathan Taylor. That being said, the Browns have been one of the most stingy teams vs the run this season, and he wasn’t high up on my board in this matchup anyways.
The Browns offense took a big hit losing Nick Chubb, but we shouldn’t expect them to miss a beat with how good their offensive line is playing. The Colts have one of the toughest defenses to crack in the NFL, but will have a tougher time on Sunday if Darius Leonard is unable to suit up. The only play I’m strongly considering from Cleveland is Kareem Hunt, who is viable in all formats without Chubb. Hunt is heavily involved in the passing game, and will see enough volume to still have a ceiling in this matchup at home. Hunt is still priced like Chubb is playing, and even in a tough matchup I want to take advantage of that. They have schemed him a number of plays in the red zone already this season, and I feel confident in him getting multiple looks if they get close on Sunday.
Odell is coming off his best game as a Brown, but the matchup keeps him in my tournament pool only.
Cash Game Pool: Kareem Hunt
GPP Pool: Odell Beckham, TY Hilton, Trey Burton
Notes on Kansas City/Las Vegas
It looks like we are 100% good to go for this game, which is great because it’s one of the best on the slate for DFS. I will be playing this game very straightforward, as I talked about on the Game Theory podcast with Matt. I am 100% going to lock in Clyde Edwards-Helaire in my optimal builds for cash games, and then go heavy on the passing game in tournaments. Patrick Mahomes has a really strong history vs this team, and the Chiefs have a 34.5 implied team total for a reason. Both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are in play for my Mahomes stack, but Hill sticks out above everyone on DraftKings priced below $7,000. He’s scored a touchdown in every game, and the Raiders have struggled with speed again this season … he should never be this cheap.
The Chiefs have been gashed on the ground this season, but I can’t play Josh Jacobs in DFS in a game where it’s highly likely they are trailing. For as good as Mahomes as been vs the Raiders, Carr has been that bad against the Chiefs. I am considering Darren Waller as a run-back in my Chiefs stacks. He will continue to play as the WR1 in this Raiders offense.
As of Friday, I’m planning on the CAR/ATL game stack in cash games, with BAL and KC stacks in my 3 max entry builds.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
