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NFL DFS (Wild Card Weekend) – Bales’ Top GPP Plays

Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here

 

Running Back

Gus Edwards

Edwards has seen mixed results in a limited role for the Baltimore Ravens this season. Through 16 games, he boasts 723 yards and 6 touchdowns on 144 carries. He also owns 9 receptions for 129 yards on 13 targets. Edwards quietly owns 25 red zone carries, posting 75 yards and 6 touchdowns. He isn’t involved in the red zone passing offense, though. 

Edwards’ only played 34% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps this season. He’s played significantly closer to 50% of the snaps in recent weeks with Mark Ingram losing his role in the offense, though. Edwards’ seen double-digit carries in 6 of his 16 games, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game in those contests. He’s also averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game in a larger offensive role over his last 5 games. 

Edwards gets a matchup against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. They’re allowing 120.8 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry this season. They’ve also given up 18 touchdowns over 16 games. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Baltimore has a slight offensive line edge over Tennessee’s defensive line in the run game this weekend. The Titans are allowing 1.12 yards before contact per carry this season, while Edwards ranks sixth in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (2.7). The Ravens are currently 3.5 point favorites in a game set at 54.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 29 points. J.K. Dobbins caught fire in recent games, making him the preferred option in Baltimore, driving ownership down on Edwards. The latter is playing roughly 50% of the snaps, though, and comes with outstanding option for his price tag. He’s a great GPP option on a smaller slate. 

 

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster’s seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2020 season. He posted 97 receptions for 831 yards and  9 touchdowns on 128 targets. Smith-Schuster’s turned a team-high 17 red zone targets into 14 receptions for 97 yards and 6 touchdowns this season. He’s seen only 742 air yards with a 5.8 aDOT, accounting for 15.7% of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ air yards. 

Smith-Schuster leads Pittsburgh’s receivers, playing 84% of the offensive snaps this season. Although he’s seen mixed results throughout the season, he caught fire towards the end. Smith-Schuster posted 18+ fantasy points in 3 of his final 4 games. He also recorded 18.5 and 24.6 fantasy points in his last 2 games, recording 21 targets in those games. It’s clear he’s a focal point of the passing offense after struggling with 5 or fewer targets in a trio of games early in the season. 

Smith-Schuster gets a plus matchup against the Cleveland Browns this weekend. They’re giving up 247.6 passing yards per game and 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Cleveland’s also allowed 31 passing touchdowns in 16 games this season. Most importantly, Smith-Schuster is expected to play the majority of his snaps against M.J. Stewart. Stewart’s graded out as the second-worst cornerback on this slate, according to PFF. He’s been targeted on 13% of his routes covered, allowing a 72% catch rate. Stewart’s given up 0.26 fantasy points and 1.27 yards per route covered in 2020. Pittsburgh is a 6 point favorite in a game set at 47 points, and they own an implied team total of 26.5 points. Diontae Johnson is the top option for Pittsburgh, but Smith-Schuster could find success in this matchup, similar to his Week 17 performance. 

 

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