What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my WR/CB Matchups Article. In this article, I will be breaking down three of the best and three of the worst matchups across this weekend’s games. I can’t believe we are already almost done with the regular season; it seems like this season flew by. Although, the good news is that we have plenty of data to dissect going into this week to find the best edge to win you the week. On top of the free articles, we have a FREE discord where we are always bouncing ideas off each other. Outside of all the FREE content, we offer paid subscriptions. Whether you are low on time or just want to know exactly what we are playing, the premium side of discord is always active, as we have subs continuously asking questions about how to build their lineups.
Wide Receiver and Cornerback matchups are one of the staples of fantasy football. A lot of people will take a look at the overall matchup on defense. While that is important, it is also critical to take your research a step further and dive into the micro matchup between the WR and who he is lining up against the majority of the game.
This Week’s Matchups:
Best Matchups:
Cole Beasley vs Sean Murphy-Bunting
The Bills are coming off one of their worst games of the season due to how bad the weather was in Buffalo. 30 MPH winds sustained and gusts approaching close to 60 MPH. This led to floor games for just about every player in the passing game for both teams. The Patriots only passed the ball three times. Other than that, Beasley has had some great games and some horrid games, but that is what comes with a team with no true WR 2 and are willing to split it between Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley. After breaking the century mark against Miami in week 8 he really hasn’t jumped off the page. Going no more than 50 yards in any of the games and going for a cumulative 128 yards in those five games since then. Although, the volume has been there going for 5+ targets in all but one of those games if you don’t count last week’s hurricane.
This is a perfect get-right spot for the entire Bills offense as they will be facing another top tiered offense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a game we could see being a shootout, but both these teams do have capable defenses. Although, the Bills will get their first test without Tre’davious White and the Bucs are more of a top-tier run defense compared to pass defense. This is something we all know the Bills would rather not do. As we saw last week, even in a hurricane the Bills still won’t run as much as they should. So, against the best run defense in the league, don’t expect more than 10 rush attempts in neutral game script. The slot has always been an issue for the Bucs dating back to last season mainly because their outside corners are so good teams try to target the slot instead. Murphy-Bunting was injured in week one against the Cowboys on the opened night of the season. He returned three games ago and has not looked great. He is one of three corners who has given up 200 yards over that three-game stretch.
Terry McLaurin vs Trevon Diggs
McLaurin has had his ups and downs this season either finishing as a top WR or as a bottom one. He has one of the higher variances among finishes across the league this season. Finishing with 20+ fantasy points four times this season, but when he does not finish that high, he has yet to go for more than 12 fantasy points. Even with his ups and downs he still ranks second in the league one behind Justin Jefferson in % of the team’s air yards. He has 43.58% of his team’s air yards this season, Jefferson edges him out by 0.1%. Although, he finds himself down at 11th in target share at 26.42%.
I know what you are going to say, Trevon Diggs is having an amazing season and is one of the best corners in the league. While yes, he is having a great season, that does not come with some flaws. He is one of the corners that likes to go big or go home, this is the main reason he has such a high interception rate. He likes to risk it for the biscuit. Therefore, he is known for giving up big plays on top of the big plays he does make. Diggs is allowing the 5th most yards per route covered this season he comes in right above Marshon Lattimore who has a similar coverage style to Diggs. These types of players are known to give up a big play to make a big play.
Courtland Sutton vs Amani Oruwariye
Sutton has looked beyond awful this season with Jeudy in the lineup but that doesn’t take away from his amazing matchup this week. Is this the perfect get-right spot for Sutton this week? At some point, you would think talent would prevail. Without Jeudy, Sutton is averaging 87.5 yards per game and 6 receptions on 9 targets per game. That number plummets to 20.7 yards per game 1.66 receptions on 3.5 targets per game. Those changes are drastic. Sutton had a 42% air yards share over this time without Jeudy and a 25.5% target share. Since Jeudy’s return, his air yards share has fallen to 25% and target share to 12.5%. This air yards share is not a drastic enough change to warrant this much of a drop in production, meaning we could see a bounceback in the right matchup. Which we have this weekend.
If he was to get back on track, this would be the spot to do it. The Lions are known for giving up a ton of yards to WR1 on the outside. Only two teams struggled to get their WR1 involved, this occurred in back-to-back weeks. The Browns struggled because of the nasty weather and the Steelers did because they were starting back up QB Mason Rudolph. Outside of those games only one WR was unable to surpass 97 yards against them and that was Marquise Brown who dropped not one, not two, but three long touchdown passes in a Week 3 victory. This is the main blemish of an outside WR not putting up numbers against the Lions. He is one of my favorite GPP plays of the week. Low floor but huge ceiling.
Worst Matchups:
DeAndre Hopkins vs Jalen Ramsey
This is going to be a fantastic matchup to watch this week. Two of the best going at each other this weekend. Hopkins has missed a plethora of games this season but came back last week putting up two receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown as the Cardinals won 33-22 against the Chicago Bears. This mainly came from Murray only passing for 123 yards and 11 completions. Excluding last week and the week he was injured, Hopkins was putting up great numbers in this offense. Placing in the top 15 in four out of his seven healthy weeks this season. This had him as WR13 over that time period. As one of the most high-powered offenses in the league this high fantasy point output was due to his high touchdown ceiling. Ranking second in touchdowns over that time period, only behind Deebo and tied with Mike Evans.
I don’t have to go too in-depth on Ramsey due to his big-name we already know how amazing he is. Ramsey is still performing like one of the top cornerbacks in the league this season. Ramsey is giving up 0.94 yards per route covered this season. While that is not one of the best marks in the league when you take into account that he is lining up against the best week in and week out his numbers won’t be the best in the league. Ramsey is currently holding the top spot on PFF’s coverage grades this season. Ramsey has given up the 8th least number of yards this season among corners who have defended at least 400 routes this season. Almost half of those yards have come from yards after the catch. As a big-bodied corner, I am surprised that he has one of the higher missed tackle rates in the league. He also forces the 3rd highest forced incompletion rate in the league.
DJ Moore vs AJ Terrell
DJ Moore just has not been the same since the first few weeks of the season. This correlates with the success and the lack of success of his QB. Moore finished as a WR1 in three of the first four weeks of the season. Finishing with at least 15 fantasy points in all of those first four week performances. Since then, he has put up just one game with at least 15 fantasy points.
It seems as though AJ Terrell is finally getting the recognition he deserves as one of the top corners in the league. Terrell has only allowed 136 yards on the season while dropping back into coverage 414 times. He is allowing a league-low 6.5 yards per reception and correlating to a 0.35 yards per route covered. He has yet to give up more than 31 yards in a game and has had multiple games of allowing fewer than 10 in a game. This is a perfect spot to showcase his skills against one of the best year WRs in the league.
Jamison Crowder vs PJ Williams
Crowder has not looked the part this season for the Jets. He seemed like a sleeper this season ready to pop off for the Jets. Although, his success last season was mainly due to his high target volume. This came from the lack of other passing options in the Jets offense. This problem is not the case this season as they added a ton of new weapons in free agency and in the draft. This has dropped Crowder’s production a ton this season. Although, let me preface, if Moore misses on top of already misses. This may open up more opportunities for Crowder this week.
PJ Williams is someone I used to target as one of the worst slot corners in the league. That has seemed to change this season as his production has seemed to improve this season at shutting down slot WRs. Williams is allowing a 78% catch rate this season but that has only led to a 0.63 yards per route run this season, one of the tops in the league. As well as only allowing 0.15 fantasy points per route run and a target on 11% of routes run. Both are some of the best rates in the league. He has yet to allow more than 31 yards in a game this season but has given up some high reception games. This leads to a very allow aDOT against him. So, he may give up receptions to Crowder it all depends if Crowder can break one open for a big gain.
