Jacksonville Jaguars (-175)
Imagine the line of this game if we were in one of the first few weeks of the season. While we know a lot more now, this is still the Jacksonville Jaguars game to lose, and this spread is entirely too close. They’re averaging only 17.6 points per game this season, but they are also averaging 23.3 points per game when Leonard Fournette is playing. They also feature an elite defense, allowing only 21.9 points per game. The same can’t be said for the Buffalo Bills, who rank as a below averaging defense, allowing 25.1 points per game this season. The Bills also rank last in the NFL in scoring, as they are averaging only 13.7 points per game this season. Jacksonville should be able to control the ball with Fournette, while utilizing a dominant defense to hold Buffalo to limited scoring opportunities. The Bills have lost by more than six point in every one of their losses this season, as well.
Bet 3 units on Jacksonville -3 to win 2.6 units (-115)
Tennessee Titans (+230)/Houston Texans (-280)
Simply put, this is going to be a tough divisional defensive battle. The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans feature two of the best defenses in the NFL this season. Tennessee ranks second in the league, allowing only 18.9 points per game, while Houston ranks fifth, allowing 20.5 points per game. Neither team has featured an elite offense, as well, combining to average 41.7 points per game. In their first matchup, these two teams combined for 37 points, sitting nearly five points under the allowed total this week. Furthermore, Houston has scored 23 or fewer points in five of their last six games, winning each of those games. Tennessee has also struggled to score recently, scoring less than 20 points in four of their last six games. This total is one of the lowest on the slate, but it’s still a bit too high for how these two teams have been playing.
Bet 3 units on Tennessee/Houston UNDER 41.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
New York Giants (+225)
This may be a bit hopeful, but these odds are far too wide. The New York Giants have won each of their last two games, albeit against lower level competition, scoring 65 points in the process. The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t been as lucky, losing three of their last four games, while averaging only 17.0 points per game over that span. The Eagles are dealing with a plethora of injuries in their secondary, stating that they’re testing out receivers at corner during practice. That will be a major problem, as Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard make up one of the most dangerous receiver duos in the NFL. I expect this game to be high scoring, which likely favors New York at this moment. If you don’t want to take this much risk, betting on the Giants +6 spread is a significantly safer route.
Bet 2 units on New York Giants ML to win 4.5 units (+225)
Parlay 2 units on Tampa Bay -3 spread, New England -10.5 spread, and Pittsburgh -3 spread to win 11.8 units (+587)