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Good afternoon Karma nation! Welcome to Wild Card weekend where it is win or go home. Thankfully, this week we do not have to worry about hindered playing time from star players or resting players.
This week is a little different as we have a three game slate Saturday and three game slate Sunday, so I am giving you both!
OVERWEIGHT: (Alvin Kamara) ($8,500 DK)
When Kamara faced the Bears earlier in the season Michael Thomas was still out. With that in mind, Kamara still owned the show having 9 receptions for 96 receiving yards and 12 rushes for 67 rushing yards accumulating a total of 25.3 fantasy points.
He was out, due to COVID protocol, Week 17 against the Panthers. However, in his last four weeks Kamara is averaging 29.4 fantasy points. There is a huge outlier from Week 16, however, if we take that out, he still averages a respectable 19.5 fantasy points.
New Orleans is 4th in the league for offensive adjusted line yards (ALY). Their running backs are 8th in the league for yards per carry (YPC) with 4.69. Kamara also has receiver upside which is why he is my favorite running back on the slate. Kamara’s 21.6% target market share is second highest on the team. Kamara is averaging 7.1 targets/game with 50.4 receiving yards.
In my opinion, Kamara has more ways to reach his ceiling than Derrick Henry. Not saying Derrick Henry is a bad play because I will absolutely have exposure to him.
OVERWEIGHT: Wide Receivers
(Michael Thomas) ($6,300 DK)- Truthfully, I do not know if Michael Thomas has ever been priced down this low. He is the second highest projected receiver for this slate. When he has played, he is soaking up 30.2% target market share. Thomas averages 12.8 fantasy points per game this season and keep in mind he only had Drew Brees for 2 of his 7 games. We saw the chemistry the dynamic duo had last year, and this week would be a great time to reconnect.
(Corey Davis) ($4,800 DK)- Davis played Baltimore Week 11 resulting in 7 targets, 113 receiving yards, averaging 22.6 receiving yards/catch. Davis will matchup against Marcus Peters. Peters is allowing .92 cornerback yards/route and a team high quarterback rating of 91.04. Baltimore runs zone defense 50% of the time. Tannehill’s quarterback rating with Davis in zone coverage is an impressive 131.4. Majority of people will flock to AJ Brown keeping his ownership low. If Davis is the go-to guy this weekend your lineup will be on the path for success.
(Allen Robinson) ($6,500 DK)- Vegas has the spread at -10 in favor of the Saints. David Montgomery will not be a factor this weekend. The Saints run defense is 4th in the league only allowing 93.9 rushing yards/game. This game script tells me Chicago will be playing catch up the entire game. This season Robinson has averaged 25.6% target market share. We have even seen a game where he absorbed 40% of target marketshare. Robinson has been targeted 13+ times five times this season. He has a favorable matchup against Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is the highest targeted cornerback on his team and has allowed a quarterback rating of 101.5.
Other candidates: (AJ Brown), (Diontae Johnson), (Marquise Brown)
OVERWEIGHT: Tight Ends
(Mark Andrews) ($5,200 DK)- Andrews is averaging 12.2 fantasy points, the most fantasy points for TE on this slate. Andrews is tied with Brown for targets per game averaging 6.3. Andrews leads his team in end zone targets with 36.4%. Last time Andrews faced Tennessee he put up 5 receptions, 96 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Tennessee is allowing 56.1% of targets between 0-9 yards which is fourth most in the NFL. Andrews has 53.3% of his targets between 0-9 yards.
(Eric Ebron) ($3,700 DK)- Ebron is in a great spot against Cleveland. Cleveland has been very susceptible to opposing TE this season. They have allowed 10 touchdowns (T-4 most), 90 receptions (T-4 most), and 15.4 fantasy points (4th most). Ebron has been consistent getting 14.7% target marketshare this season. Ebron is also seeing 21.2% end zone targets. I expect Ben to open the flood gates with passes in this game creating numerous opportunities for Ebron.
OVERWEIGHT: Running Backs
(Derrick Henry) ($9,200 DK)- I was going back and forth choosing between Henry and Kamara. To be honest I will have some lineups with both. Henry carried the ball 28 times, rushed for 133 yards, and scored the game winning OT touchdown last time he faced the Ravens. Since 2017 Henry has played in 5 January (playoff) games. He has averaged 126 yards/game. Do not forget when the Titans were in this same exact situation last year and Henry ran wild rushing 30 times for 195 yards.
Other candidates: (Nick Chubb), (J.K. Dobbins)
UNDERWEIGHT: Lamar Jackson
You can see in the title I took out fade. I just cannot fade his potential but will be underweight on Jackson.
When facing the Titans this season he had 13 carriers for 51 yards. In that game, out of his 17 completions 9 were passed the line of scrimmage. According to Next Gen Stats, Jackson has a 64.4 completion percentage which is 29th out of 41. Take away his ground game and he is severely in trouble.
Do not forget about J.K. Dobbins. The Ravens very well could game plan around Dobbins rushing upside as Dobbins is in a great matchup this weekend. This would eat into Jackson’s rushing attempts. This could blow up in my face if he has a rushing game like he did against the Titans last postseason. However, with the other QBs available and their prices I see more consistency. I really like Big Ben this weekend.
The first thing that caught my eyes for this slate was all these teams have already faced each other this season. Check to see if all the star players were playing but recent history could already give us a hint of what might happen Sunday.
These games’ totals are all over 47 showing Sunday’s slate has more variance. I recommend making up a game script in your head and build lineups from that. Like Saturday’s slate, you will have to find leverage and get creative. If you eat chalk in one game and it flops, (if you have a lineup that allows it), pivot off of a chalkier player in the next game and go for straight leverage to still give you a fighting chance of cashing. If you have the ability, utilize the late swap!
I will have my highest ownership on Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara. Big Ben has played in 15 games this season 12 of which he has thrown 2+ touchdowns. He will be my pivot from Jackson, and I think would pair great with Ebron. Michael Thomas’s price is way too low for his upside. Corey Davis is a great way to gain leverage from AJ Brown. Allen Robinson provides enormous target upside especially if they are playing from behind the whole game.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 or send me a message in the discord chat and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!