Welcome to the Week 13 edition of Jason Bales’s “Red Zone Targets” article. Each week, he analyzes one leader in red zone rushes or targets that has a certain amount of untapped potential. In identifying these players, fantasy owners can delve further into their own research, bookmarking them for possible trade candidates in season-long fantasy football leagues, or tournament plays in daily fantasy football leagues.
Running Back Red Zone Targets Value:
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
No, this is not an attempt at humor. Lamar Jackson is one of the best red-zone “running backs” in the NFL this season. He is also one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He uses his mobility frequently, and the Baltimore Ravens do a great job of keeping defenses guessing due to Jackson’s athleticism. Some analysts say he is a pretty good quarterback for a running back, but he is actually a pretty good running back for a quarterback.
On the season, Jackson earned 22 carries inside the 20-yard line, converting 4 of them into touchdowns. He is averaging 3.5 yards per carry for 85 yards and 9 first downs. He rushes over 50% of the time on first down and over 40% of the time with 7-10 yards to go for a first down or touchdown. Mark Ingram leads the team in total red zone carries with 30, and Gus Edwards is in third with 17. The Ravens are frequently in the red zone, and the opponent’s defense never knows who’s going to get the ball. Jackson can do it with his legs or his arm, which makes him especially dangerous.
This week, the 9-2 Ravens square off against the 10-1 San Francisco 49ers. This game is going to be a defensive battle, but Jackson needs to put points on the board in order to pick up a victory. The Ravens tend to run heavy when winning games, but this week might be different. Jackson is a great option in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues for his perpetually untapped upside.
Wide Receiver Red Zone Targets Value:
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Tyler Lockett is surprisingly sure-handed in the red zone for a speedy, agile wide receiver. His 5-foot-10-inch body frame isn’t ideal for red-zone jump ball scenarios, but he is great at creating separation quickly without much room to work, which likely explains his 100% catch rate inside the 10-yard line. Inside the 20-yard line, that drops to slightly over 70%.
On the season, Russell Wilson targeted Lockett in the red zone 14 times. He convert 10 of those 14 targets into 90 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Inside the 10-yard line, Lockett is 5-of-5 for 26 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. He hasn’t had a red zone target since Week 9, but the Seahawks are in the midst of a difficult stretch of games. He failed to impress against the San Francisco 49ers or Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers pass rush makes it difficult to find open wide receivers, and the wind in the Eagles’ game was a major factor. Lockett has plenty of untapped potential right now.
In Week 13, Lockett gets a better matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, a team currently ranked tenth-worst in the league for receiving yards allowed. Wilson will continue to target Lockett inside the red zone, despite failing to do so for two consecutive weeks. In Week 9, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Lockett earned 18 targets, 5 of which were in the red zone. He is a big part of the Seahawks’ offense when it is operating smoothly. This is a correction week for Pete Carroll’s 9-2 squad.
Tight End Red Zone Targets Value:
Mark Andrews (BAL)
This is the week of the Baltimore Ravens. When Lamar Jackson isn’t rushing inside the 20-yard line, he tends to throw the football toward Mark Andrews. Andrews earned 10 red zone targets in 2019 thus far, catching 5 of those targets for 48 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. His catch rate is only 50%, but his touchdown efficiency is 100%. If he catches the ball inside the 20-yard line, he is standing in the end zone.
Again, this week the Ravens face off against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are the best team in the league against opposing tight ends, making Andrews a near-fade in daily fantasy contests. He does have plenty of touchdown potential, but his higher price tag isn’t worth it. In season-long leagues, Andrews established himself as a must-start long ago.
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