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Sam’s Conviction Column – NFL Week 5

Intro

There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!

Links to other content!

Week 5 Position by Position Breakdown

Week 5 Cash Process

Projections Portal

NFL Game Theory

WR/CB Matchups

Ben’s Week 4 Breakdown! (Article) —- COMING SOON!

Core Plays

 

QB

Dak Prescott

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            11.0%
FD Proj. OWN%            10.8%

What I Like → Dak comes into this game ranking 2nd in Adj. Net Yards per Pass Attempt of all QBs on the slate (behind Kyler; also excluding Lance with his limited attempts) and while we want the Cowboys to be throwing to that lethal passing attack, Dak has shown incredible efficiency (i.e. 4 TD passes last week with less than 200 yards passing on 22 attempts) so far this season. The Giants D isn’t stopping anyone through the air (or on the ground) with the Cowboys stout offensive line combined with the Cowboys carrying the highest implied Vegas team total on the slate. I currently have Dak projected for the second highest projected ceiling points behind Kyler Murray.

What I Worry About → The main concerns here are that after a massive 58 attempts in Week 1, his next 3 weeks Dak only has 27 > 26 > 22 pass attempts and with the bad Giants defense, it could be another run heavy game for the Cowboys if they get out to a big league. Behind projected pass volume, if Dak stands out as much chalkier than the other QBs on the slate, I’m fine pivoting in GPPs as the distribution of QB points is much narrower compared to other positions.

Kirk Cousins

Karma Position Rank: 5

DK Proj. OWN%            5.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            6.3%

What I Like → Trusting Kirk never feels good to me and with Mike Zimmer’s running obsession and slow pace of play, it’s always VERY worrisome to use Cousins in a SE/3 max format; however, Dalvin Cook will probably play and is banged up and the Lions stop NO ONE, ranking 30th in DVOA against the pass (per FootballOutsiders) and despite some games both this season and previous where Kirk may barely throw in run heavy games, this season he’s averaging just under 42 drop backs per game and the Vikings are just behind the Cowboys in implied Vegas team total (29 compared to 29.5 for the Cowboys).

What I Worry About → I basically laid out the worries above, which is the Mike Zimmer method of playing slow, draining the clock, and giving Dalvin the ball 30 times. Kirk is more boom/bust than others around him but still carries a 30ish point ceiling and since his range of outcomes is as such, he doesn’t always present risk of not paying off the salary + throwing multiple picks.

Derek Carr

Karma Position Rank: 13

DK Proj. OWN%            4.0%
FD Proj. OWN%            4.3%

What I Like → 1st in Air yards per game, for QBs, on this slate is Tom Brady… and 2nd is Derek Carr. I am admittedly very critical of Carr as I think he’s a poor decision-maker late in games; however, before playing a tough Chargers defense on Monday where Gruden for some reason kept pounding Josh Jacobs into the line for no reason, Carr had thrown for 380+ yards in all his games prior and despite a tough showing on Monday, he’s thrown 2 TD passes in all 4 games. The Bears defense isn’t bad but it’s not a shutdown defense and have a huge weakness of coverage outside the slot (8th worst per Ian Haritz of PFF), which should allow plenty of space for Carr’s fast (Ruggs) and massive receivers (Waller).

What I Worry About → Carr is similar to Kirk in that he’s volatile and his price tag isn’t “cheap” this week. Further, as we saw last game, sometimes even though it clearly isn’t working, Gruden will try to run the ball and in turn limit Carr’s pass attempts. The Raiders O-line isn’t great with Carr being pressured on nearly 30% of his throws and the Bears front seven could provide issues if they’re in Carr’s face all day.

Tom Brady

Karma Position Rank: 4

DK Proj. OWN%            7.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            7.9%

What I Like → As mentioned above, Brady leads all QBs on the slate in Air yards/game (405.3) and is averaging 46 pass attempts per game through their first 4. After a very mediocre showing on SNF against his old team, this is an elite spot against a Dolphins defense that has strong outside corners such as Xavien Howard but face a lethal trio of WRs on top of TB passing on 71% of their plays (2nd behind the Steelers, who pass at a 73.2% clip) AND combined with the Bucs very weak pass defense that causes their games to be closer than they should. A mega-ceiling game from Brady is very much in play here.

What I Worry About → The main concern is that with the Dolphins reeling on offense and their defense extremely beatable on the ground, the Bucs could just jam it down their throats with Fournette all game as the Dolphins are giving up nearly 10 more DK points than NFL average to RBs (6.6 more on FD) and the Bucs may be content with just exploiting that matchup, therefore limiting Brady’s attempts and ceiling.

RB

Tier 1

Derrick Henry

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            22.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            23.8%

What I Like → I could copy and paste what I put for Henry last week I suppose… averaging nearly 30 rush attempts per game, 6 High Value Touches (“HVTs”) per game, 3-4 targets per game, 82% of the RB touches for the team, 45% of the red zone work, and 110 more yards after contact (365 total) than the next closest RB, Joe Mixon (255). I think he’s a strong play.

What I Worry About → Only concern here, and an unlikely one at that, is that both AJ Brown and Julio return, and the Titans find themselves trailing which doesn’t render Henry useless but severely decreases his ceiling and overall rushing opportunities/targets.

Najee Harris

Karma Position Rank: 9

DK Proj. OWN%            17.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            20.0%

What I Like → Are the Steelers bad? Yes. Is Big Ben extremely washed? Absolutely yes. With that out of the way, Najee Harris is getting 20% of the team targets (8.5 per game), nearly 96% of all the RB work (96!!!), and 50% of the Steeler’s red zone opportunities. Averaging 7.5 HVTs per game (highest on the slate), we don’t need the Steelers to be good for Harris to have a massive floor to go along with one of the higher ceilings on the slate.

What I Worry About → The obvious worry with Harris is 1) his ownership as his insane usage is no secret and 2) the Broncos strong defense combined with the Steelers’ dusty offense. Najee should have a very solid floor every game, but with a horrific O-Line and only 12-15 rush attempts per game, a lot of his damage needs to come with continued targets.

D’Andre Swift

Karma Position Rank: 7

DK Proj. OWN%            13.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            9.2%

What I Like → If you look at snap counts from last week, Swift’s dud performance is definitely surprising as he played 73% of the snaps compared to Williams’ 30% and saw 6 targets with 8 rush attempts. Now he gets a significantly worse Vikings defense that are middling against the run/pass catching backs combined with a game script in which the Lions are likely trailing. Swift is averaging over 5 targets per game, has the 2nd most HVTs of RBs on the slate (29 compared to Harris’ 30) and could be in line for a big bounce back after inefficient usage last week.

What I Worry About → The concern here is, and will continue to be, the conceding of touches to Jamaal Williams who Swift is out snapping on the season (66% compared to 37%) yet Williams is still getting approximately 25% of the RZ work and 2-3 targets per game to go along with 10-12 rush attempts. If the Lions are in a close battle or end up leading for a majority, the usage could sway heavily in favor of Williams.

Tier 2

Damien Williams

Karma Position Rank: 21

DK Proj. OWN%            11.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            13.7%

What I Like → Sure to be chalk and not massively mispriced, Williams should be in line for a ton of usage with David Montgomery sidelined. The Raiders just got gashed by Ekeler on Monday and are giving up nearly 28 points a game to RBs so far on DraftKings (24.5 on FD), good for 7th most in the league. Williams should have a few targets in the game (probably 2-5) and showed good efficiency on the ground last week, running 8 times for 55 yards and a score.

What I Worry About → First off, Williams is still technically questionable after also getting hurt last game so he could either miss the game or see a decreased workload if he’s not 100% by Sunday. Further, his floor (and for that matter, ceiling) is definitely limited with Fields at QB as he has no problem rushing himself (and he probably should) and could take away HVTs or goal line work from Williams as he gets more comfortable in the Bears’ offense.

Damien Harris

Karma Position Rank: 15

DK Proj. OWN%            6.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            6.5%

What I Like → This play worries me a bit if he gets too chalky, but in a game where I see very little chance of Harris getting game scripted out, he presents huge potential against a horrendous Texans team. Ranking 2nd to last in Rush DVOA (FootballOutsiders), the Texans have given up 25.1 DK Points and 23.1 FD points per game to RBs thus far this season. Per PFF, the Pats have the 2nd best O-Line/D-Line mismatch this week and as long as he doesn’t get leeched at the goal line, Harris could be in line for an explosive performance at only 5500 on DK (6500 on FD), which feels much too cheap considering the matchup.

What I Worry About → The biggest thing going against Harris is his lack of receiving work as he averages under 2 targets a game with a considerable floor of zero catches. His fantasy points and value will come nearly all from rushing and TDs so he’s a preferred play on the more TD-dependent FanDuel where he’s only the 17th most expensive RB.

Leonard Fournette

Karma Position Rank: 6

DK Proj. OWN%            17.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            16.3%

What I Like → A Lenny Fournette chalk week doesn’t sound appealing whatsoever; however, with Ronald Jones basically being ushered out of the game plan, Fournette is now seeing nearly 5 targets per game (nearly 11% of team targets) and holds nearly 3x the snap share compared to Jones (Fournette 58%, Jones 20%). Seeing nearly a 60% RB opportunity share combined with the Dolphins giving up over 33 DK points a game to RBs (26.9 on FD), good for 3rd worst in the league, the spot couldn’t really be much better.

What I Worry About → A few concerns with Fournette are 1) if Gio Bernard returns, Fournette could lose a significant amount of pass work and 2) with how Brady-led offenses are run, they will switch up RBs all the time and could easily give Jones/Bernard goal line work and take away Fournette’s TD equity. Further, with how pass heavy TB is, no matter if they’re trailing or leading, his projected touches are always at risk of being on the lower end of starting RBs.

Tier 3

Eli Mitchell / Samaje Perine (if Mixon is out)

Karma Position Rank: 28 // 30

DK Proj. OWN%            3.4% // 4.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            3.9% // 3.3%

What I Like → Obviously we need to wait and see if Mitchell is active, but if he is, his price screams value along with receiving PFF’s #1 OL/DL mismatch this week against the Cardinals. The 49ers run at the 8th highest clip in the league and are more than content with running the clock (side note, probably smart to keep the ball out of Murray’s hands) which could have Mitchell thrust back into a fringe RB1 role. With regards to Perine, I think he’s a smash cash play if Mixon is ruled out as he’s the minimum on DK, $4000, ($5600 on FD) and presents a decent floor with upside against the Packers’ 27th ranked Rush DVOA and 24th ranked DVOA against RB receiving (averaging 36 yards against per game).

What I Worry About → The main concern with Mitchell is he’s coming off an injury so may see decreased usage along with the Cardinals high powered offense getting ahead and the 49ers playing catchup for majority of the game. With regards to Perine, there’s a strong chance he doesn’t see a bell cow role and concedes some work to Chris Evans. Further, the Bengals could get down early and be forced into a pass heavy game plan like their last game against the Jags when they trailed at half and Burrow took over nearly the whole 2nd half.

WR

Tier 1

Davante Adams

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            20.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            23.3%

What I Like → LOL what do we even say about Adams. Good luck trying to shadow him, Eli Apple? MVS remains out, not that it matters if he’s in, but Adams is seeing over 11 targets per game, 38% of the team’s air yards, 36% of the team targets, 24% of the RZ targets, and is a GROWN ASS MAN. Good play this week in my opinion.

What I Worry About → I legitimately don’t have any concerns with Adams as even in a “dud” performance last week, he still saw 11 targets and scoring 12 DK points, i.e. a super floor game.

Mike Evans

Karma Position Rank: 11

DK Proj. OWN%            6.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            9.0%

What I Like → Evans leads the Bucs in total targets this year with 27 (Godwin 22, Brown 21), good for over 9 per game and a 37% air yards share in the high-powered Bucs offense. What I love about Evans this week is he’s $500 more expensive than Godwin on DK ($600 cheaper on FD), so at least on DK he should be much less owned on top of most likely drawing the most coverage from the Dolphins best corner, Xavien Howard. His big play ability due to his massive aDOT (13.3) and 1-3 deep targets per game makes him an elite GPP option/stack option.

What I Worry About → The main worry, which is nearly every week, is with Brady’s tendency to spread the ball, this offense is less concentrated than most, with all 3 WRs carrying between a 13-20% target share, and Brady could just as easily feed AB or go to Godwin in the slot, leaving Evans as the odd man out. Further, if Gronk returns, Evans and all receivers, will take a serious hit in volume with how much Gronk has been targeted so far this season.

Diontae Johnson

Karma Position Rank: 12

DK Proj. OWN%            5.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            5.3%

What I Like → Diontae Johnson has played in 3 full games this season and seen 35 total targets… with ZERO drops. Zero. Again, yes, Ben is VERY dusty, but volume is everything in fantasy and Diontae is seeing 11.7 targets per game, 37% of the team’s air yards to go with 50% of the RZ targets as well. Elite play each and every week and is never owned enough due to the public’s awareness of Big Ben’s struggles to be competent.

What I Worry About → The worry starts and end with CAN BEN GET HIM CATCHABLE TARGETS? For the most part, yes. I will say, there is concern that the Broncos defense is solid and Diontae should line up a majority of the time against the young CB, Patrick Surtain.

CeeDee Lamb

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            14.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            14.9%

What I Like → After a 15 target/104 yards/1 TD performance in the opening game of the season, Lamb has only seen 17 combined targets the last 3 weeks with only 5 receptions over the last 2 weeks. This week he is presented with a smash spot as he’s still seeing strong usage with 36% of the team’s air yards and 7-8 targets per game. Further, I always say to not over/under rate WR/CB matchups, but Bradberry will most likely shadow Cooper, something Bradberry has continued to thrive in over his career. Lamb should see a lot of Adoree’ Jackson in what a view as a very beatable matchup.

What I Worry About → If the Cowboys go run heavy, or Dak continues to look Cooper’s way more often, then Lamb could see another floor game. He’s still running the same number of routes as Cooper and seeing nearly the same volume, but hasn’t been as consistent and hasn’t scored since Week 1. There are concerns that he could get chalky as part of a semi “squeaky wheel” narrative, but his spot is pristine this week.

Tier 2

Keenan Allen

Karma Position Rank: 8

DK Proj. OWN%            14.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            13.1%

What I Like → I could have probably put Keenan in Tier 1 but Mike Williams’ 1 catch game last week means pretty much nothing to me and he still could be the alpha WR1 moving forward. Keenan to me still feels too cheap for someone averaging 10.5 targets per game, 32% of the team’s air yards and most importantly, I expect the Chargers to be pass heavy in a game where they’re facing the #1 ranked Rush defense per DVOA. The Browns secondary isn’t awful, but they are injured, and I don’t think Troy Hill/Denzel Ward/Greedy Williams can shut down the elite route running of Allen (as well as Mike Williams).

What I Worry About → If I were to quantify my top “worry,” it’s that the Browns overall defense is strong and keep Allen in check and in turn, limit the Chargers big play ability that we’re hoping for to capture that ceiling game in GPPs. Allen has seen a ton of target volume, but it is a little worrisome (very minor), that is YPT (Yards per Target) is only 7.0 through his first 4 games and despite 23 total targets over his last 2 games, combined for only 86 yards in those games.

DeVante Parker

Karma Position Rank: 22

DK Proj. OWN%            3.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            5.2%

What I Like → Call it my “flag plant” of the week, but DeVante Parker is my favorite WR on the slate this week. In what should be a game that the Dolphins are behind, Parker presents us with a 38% air yards share and has seen targets of 7/9/7/9 through his first 4 games. The Dolphins o-line is #bad and Brissett is pressured A LOT but in this matchup, all his receivers should have separation as Parker in particular should line up against either WASHED Richard Sherman or Carlton Davis (also sucks). TB has given up the most fantasy points per game to WR this season (56.1 DK points, 44.0 FD Points) on average.

What I Worry About → The concern is what I mentioned above in that the Dolphins O-Line is allowing a 47.7% pressure rate this season (2nd worst in the league; per PFF) combined with Brissett consistently holding the ball too long (10th slowest release time of 36 QBs). The volume should be there, the matchup is definitely there, but there is obviously huge risk in how effective Brissett can be and subsequently, if Parker gets the opportunities to pop off.

Antonio Brown

Karma Position Rank: 21

DK Proj. OWN%            10.9%
FD Proj. OWN%            7.5%

What I Like → By default the WR3 on the Bucs, and could see even less volume if Gronk returns, AB has outdone both Evans and Godwin in terms of Yards/Route Run (PFF) at 2.34 compared to Evans 1.62 and Godwin 1.57. As mentioned above, Brady spreads the ball too much to have any WR a lock for a 30% or so target share, but Brown is only 5200 on DK (6500 on FD) and has seen 7 targets per game, 26% of the team’s air yards, and running a route on nearly 97% of Brady’s drop backs (per PFF), which is the same as Evans/Godwin.

What I Worry About → The worry is that AB loses snaps/targets to the potentially returning Gronk as well as AB suffering Xavien Howard coverage and Brady decides to look elsewhere for more favorable matchups for Evans/Godwin/Brate. Further, he’s efficient and a big play candidate every week, but his snap share is significantly less than that of his 2 counterparts, playing 53% of the snaps on average compared to Godwin 94% and Evans 85%… plus, even with Gronk out last week, AB still only was on the field for 51% of the team snaps.

Darnell Mooney

Karma Position Rank: 26

DK Proj. OWN%            3.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            2.8%

What I Like → Mooney seems to have quickly become Fields’ first read, seeing 7 targets last week and on the season has a whopping 41% (41!!!!) air yards share. Mooney gives us a great aDOT (11.0), 6.3 targets per game, which is good for 26% of the team targets and has eclipsed Allen Robinson in total routes run this season (120 vs. 113), yards/route run (1.88 vs. 1.32), and in targets per route (0.21 vs. 0.20).

What I Worry About → The concerns here are more than most as Fields hasn’t looked “superb” in his first few starts, albeit not all his fault as his coach is a moron and his O-line is #bad. Chicago passes at the 3rd lowest rate in the league (just over 51%) and while I wouldn’t call the Raiders a “great” defense, they have allowed the 10th fewest PPR points to WRs this year.

Tier 3

Robby Anderson

Karma Position Rank: 29

DK Proj. OWN%            5.0%
FD Proj. OWN%            4.5%

What I Like → It remains confusing to me how Robby Anderson has only run 6 less routes in total than DJ Moore yet has seen 21 targets compared to DJ Moore’s 42 targets. DJ Moore is clearly the beast of this offense (and one of the very best in the league, at that), but Anderson has still seen 29% of the team targets with CMC out. I remain optimistic after Robby saw 11 targets vs. Dallas last week, which is the same targets he had COMBINED Weeks 1-3 and was a bad Darnold deep ball away from a huge TD as well.

What I Worry About → The obvious worry is that Robby goes back to seeing a measly amount of targets and the Philly defense while underachieving against the pass this year, has only given up 6 total “explosive passes” on defense this season (per SharpFootballStats) and with that being one of their stronger coverages, Robby could once again be in line to underperform. Also, it’s worth noting that if CMC does return, everyone’s target share will drop considerably.

Curtis Samuel

Karma Position Rank: 54

DK Proj. OWN%            10.8%
FD Proj. OWN%            2.3%

What I Like → Samuel returned from injury last week with Dyami Brown not performing and other injuries to the WFT and played on 37% of the snaps to along with 4 targets for 19 yards. A massive fantasy score? Certainly not; however, DK for some reason kept his price at the stone min $3000 ($5200 on FD) which presents massive value, particularly in cash games. His floor still remains at near zero, but it is worth noting that Samuel ran a route on 81.3% of Heinicke’s drop backs in Week 4 and with Logan Thomas out, some of his 12% target share could funnel to the likes of Samuel (and others).

What I Worry About → The worries here are pretty obvious in that Samuel is far from the top of the totem pole in the WFT offense with McLaurin having a lion’s share of the targets and other receivers/RBs present as well such as Humphries/Brown/DeAndre Carter. I would worry about locking Samuel in for GPPs as his ownership will rise and he doesn’t carry that “ceiling” that we’re chasing to find ourselves at the top of tournaments.

TE

Darren Waller

Karma Position Rank: 2

DK Proj. OWN%            7.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            16.4%

What I Like → With Kelce/Mark Andrews/Higbee/Pitts, etc. off the slate for TE, I have Waller projected for nearly a 6-point higher ceiling than the next TE (Kittle). Waller’s usage has remained elite, seeing 10 targets per game, 30% of the team’s air yards, and 35.3% of the team’s RZ targets. He won’t come with high ownership whatsoever on DK because unless it’s Travis Kelce, most would much prefer to punt the TE position or play as part of a team stack but Waller’s floor combined with massive ceiling has him as one of my favorite plays at any position this week.

What I Worry About → I think Waller is more or less matchup proof, but there is maybe a little concern that the Browns have allowed the 7th least fantasy points to TE this season. Also, despite finishing as a top 10 TE per PPR points each week this season, it is at least notable (maybe concerning?) that he’s seen 7 targets each of the last 3 weeks but has only gone for 65/54/50 total yards on those targets with only 1 TD.

George Kittle

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            9.5%
FD Proj. OWN%            12.5%

What I Like → The Cardinals have given up the 3rd least fantasy points, on average, to TEs this season but they haven’t exactly faced a murder’s row of opponents (Anthony Firkser/Tyler Conklin/Jags TEs/Tyler Higbee). Kittle has seen a combined 20 targets over his last 2 games including 11 last games, but only mustered 4 catches on those 11 targets as Lance missed him a few times and Kittle dropped a for-sure TD late in the game. A massive ceiling game is coming for Kittle, it’s just a matter of when.

What I Worry About → I know Lance is supposed to be the next big thing and everyone is hyped that he’s most likely the starter this week, but we don’t know yet how good/accurate he is or will be and even more importantly, with Lance’s rushing upside, the already low pass volume for the 49ers will most likely fall even further. Mostly a guess, but it is worth noting that there’s the potential Kittle is called on for a big blocking game (best TE blocker in the league) to try and counteract the Cardinals strong front seven to help keep Lance upright and therefore severely limiting the snaps Kittle is actually running a route.

Dalton Schultz

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            4.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            2.8%

What I Like → The above Karma Rank isn’t a typo (although maybe it is a mistake as Waller is probably the overall “#1” option) because Schultz has been on a tear with Gallup sidelined. Schultz ranks 3rd of all TEs on the slate in Targets per route (trails Jonnu Smith and Harrison Bryant who, in fairness, have run less routes/played less snaps), is seeing 5.8 targets per game (just under 18% team target share), and a massive 2.16 yards/route run (per PFF). The Giants have given up the 4th most points to TE this season, on average yielding 17.1 DK Points and 13.9 FD Points.

What I Worry About → With so many weapons at his disposal, it’s most likely optimistic to assume Schultz will continue his super-efficient play and what I mentioned with Dak/Lamb is true here as well in that the Cowboys could always go run heavy and smash the Giants that way all game. Lastly, despite a clear edge in targets per game, the Cowboys’ other TE, Blake Jarwin, has only run 13 less total routes than Schultz and has run a route on a higher % of Dak’s drop backs compared to Schultz (87.9% vs. 82.3%).

Mike Gesicki

Karma Position Rank: 4

DK Proj. OWN%            6.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            5.8%

What I Like → What a stat we have here… per Ian Haritz from PFF, Mike Gesicki has played nine total snaps (9!) as an inline TE this season compared to 112 in the slot and 38 spread out wide. For reference, Taysom Hill has lined up for 24 snaps at TE this season… Gesicki has quickly become a favorite of Brissett with 24 targets over the last 3 weeks and we’re getting a pseudo-WR at TE eligibility for only $4200 on DK ($5600 on FD). Let’s add in the fact that the Bucs have given up the 3rd most points to TEs on average this season (17.5 DK Points, 14.0 FD Points) AND Will Fuller is sidelined… smash spot for Gesicki.

What I Worry About → My hesitation of just lock-buttoning Gesicki is due to what I said above about Parker, which is the Dolphins O-Line sucks and Brissett may not have the time/ability to get the ball to Gesicki (and Parker/Waddle) to really give him a chance at a massive game. Further, he has been uber efficient but has only been on field for 60-65% of the snaps on average as the Dolphins use multi-TE sets frequently and thus Gesicki is certainly a candidate to have a TD or two leeched from him.

Stacks

Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.

The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.

DraftKings Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)

FanDuel Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)

Draft your NFL Best Ball teams TODAY!

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