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Sam’s Conviction Column – NFL Week 6

Intro

There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!

Links to other content!

Week 6 Position by Position Breakdown

Week 6 Cash Process

Projections Portal

NFL Game Theory

WR/CB Matchups

Ben’s Week 6 Breakdown! (Article)

Core Plays

 

QB

Note: I do believe, like much of the industry, that Lamar/Mahomes are the elite plays but since those are obvious, I’m leaving them out of the article as it’s geared more towards low(er) owned plays/GPP targets but those QBs are a tier above and should be rostered!

Joe Burrow

Karma Position Rank: 4

DK Proj. OWN%            5.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            4.5%

What I Like → Despite the Bengals still passing below expectation (unclear why), Burrow has 75 total drop backs over his last 2 games and faces the woeful Lions D that has given up the most yards per attempt to WRs than any other team. Burrow has sported >80% adjusted completion rate over his last 3 games and despite his poor O-Line should be comfortable in the pocket against the Lions pass rush that ranks bottom 10 in the NFL in adjusted line yards (per FootballOutsiders).

What I Worry About → The concerns with Burrow are with the Lions poor defense against the run as well (given up 4th most fantasy points on average to the position), the Bengals could limit Burrow’s attempts and choose a run heavy approach in a game they are favored to win, and likely lead throughout. Further, despite more drop backs recently, on the season Burrow is still 3rd to last in Air yards per game so at his price he’ll need to be above-average efficient to get to his ceiling.

Justin Herbert

Karma Position Rank: 7

DK Proj. OWN%            5.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            6.0%

What I Like → Playing like an MVP candidate right now, Herbert gets another (should be) fast paced game against an injured/below average Ravens secondary and a significantly easier matchup than last week against the Browns where he through for 400 yards and 4 TDs. Herbert has an 11/0 TD/INT ratio over his last 3 games, has 41+ drop backs in every game this season with 300+ pass yards in 3 of 5. Big Mike Williams and Keenan should have no issue dominating the Ravens secondary in what is another potential ceiling spot for Herbert.

What I Worry About → I don’t have any “concerns” per say but if Herbert does get chalky towards the end of the week, I do think others around him or slightly above carry similar upside and there’s a decent scenario where the Ravens dominate and the Chargers play in catch up mood, which could force Herbert into mistakes.

Matthew Stafford

Karma Position Rank: 6

DK Proj. OWN%            8.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            8.9%

What I Like → While Darrell Henderson should be one of the higher owned RBs on the slate (and rightfully so), it leaves a similar situation to last week in which Henry was projecting as mega chalk but the passing attack presents leverage. We all know how good the Rams have been this season and while the matchup for Henderson is elite, Stafford has thrown the 4th most air yards/game of QBs on the slate and should be able to pick apart an awful Giants defense that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards and 3rd to last in adjusted sack rate (per FootballOutsiders). Staff has the highest Net Adj. yards/attempt of QBs on the main slate and the Giants have given up 24 fantasy points a game to QBs this season.

What I Worry About → The worry is similar to that of Burrow in that the Rams could (and more likely than not) get up big and just run out the clock with Henderson/Michel. I still love the spot and think Staff presents one of the higher ceilings for QBs, but he is also known to have several down games per season so it’s not impossible for the Rams to win but win in an ugly and running heavy game script.

Sam Darnold

Karma Position Rank: 12

DK Proj. OWN%            3.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            2.4%

What I Like → Pretty risky GPP play here but everyone loved Darnold to start the year, probably due to easy matchups, but after a terrible 3 INT performance last week he won’t be owned. Darnold has looked worse than his first few games, yes; however, he has been a few errant throws from some big plays and gets the Vikings this week who are rolling out two of the lower-quality corners in the NFL in Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland. I will bet on the volume here as Darnold has 41+ drop backs in 3 of his last 4 games and if CMC returns, I think that helps out Darnold and should give him even more opportunity to find open WRs while the defense focuses on limiting CMC.

What I Worry About → The worries here are relevant as Darnold has seen his adj. completion % drop from the high 70s in Weeks 1-3 to below 70 Weeks 4-5. Further, the return of CMC should yield more check downs (still pass yards) but the Panthers will look to rush significantly more. The Vikings defense is below average, but it is worth noting that they rank 3rd in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, which combined with the Panthers below over O-Line, could see Darnold struggle if he’s under pressure all day.

RB

Tier 1

Ezekiel Elliott

Karma Position Rank: 5

DK Proj. OWN%            10.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            11.9%

What I Like → The way to beat NE is on the ground and despite the constant talk of Pollard being equal/better than Zeke and taking carries, Zeke has shown ultra-consistent fantasy performances and remains low owned each week. When we dig deeper, we see that Zeke gets 63% of the carries inside the 5 (Pollard 13%), 53% of the red zone carries (Pollard 20%) and while the snap share is closer than we’d like at Zeke’s price, sure, Zeke has a near 60% opportunity share in the Cowboys offense compared to Pollard’s 37%. While the Cowboys pass offense should be popular, Zeke gives you access to a great offense at low ownership after going over 100 yards rushing the last 2 games (95 yards in week 3) with 4 TDs in that span.

What I Worry About → Despite me laying out Zeke getting more opportunities (and more meaningful opportunities), Pollard is still viable to break a long run or leech a TD along with averaging slightly higher targets (more or less equal) than Zeke, which is maybe the biggest concern as targets/receptions present significantly more value than rush attempts for RBs.

Darrell Henderson

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            20.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            19.8%

What I Like → I’m unsure why Henderson is only 6k this week as he’s the clear alpha of the backfield even after his injury and is facing a Giants team that has given up nearly 30 fantasy points on average to RBs so far this season. I have Henderson projected for the 3rd highest ceiling of any RB on the slate this week, he’s getting nearly 2/3 of the touches inside the 10 and while Michel has gotten work, Henderson has 17 High-Value Touches (“HVT”; per Ben Gretch) to Michel’s 6 through the first 5 weeks, which includes a missed game by Henderson.

What I Worry About → The only concerns here are that Henderson gets leeched near the goal line as Michel has still gotten about 30% of the red zone touches and while Henderson is more than capable of handling a bell cow workload, he’s only seen about 15 rush attempts per game to go along with 3-4 targets. He will need to continue to be efficient (currently averaging nearly 5 yards/attempt) to get to his ceiling and make the ownership worth it.

D’Andre Swift

Karma Position Rank: 7

DK Proj. OWN%            16.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            14.6%

What I Like → Been playing Swift every week thus far so why stop now? Swift leads all RBs on the slate in HVTs (36 total), which averages out to 7.2 per game compared to Jamaal Williams 4.2 per game. Averaging 7 targets per game, 63% of the opportunities, and a game script where the Lions should be trailing and against a defense that has given up 50+ yards receiving to RBs on average this season. Only the 10th most expensive on DK, when we look at “weighted opportunities” for RBs on the slate (different than normal opportunities as weighted gives more importance to receiving/red zone work), Swift ranks 4th and gives us a huge ceiling.

What I Worry About → The worry is the same each week as Swift is basically in a 50/50 split for touches with Williams in the red zone and a 50/50 split in rushing attempts per game with around 10-12 for each. They cut into each other’s production and Williams still gets 3-4 targets per game so the risk of getting TDs taken or Swift not being used if the Lions lead this game are all concerns that keep him a high ceiling/low floor option week in and week out.

Tier 2

Antonio Gibson

Karma Position Rank: 6

DK Proj. OWN%            4.9%
FD Proj. OWN%            11.1%

What I Like → Gibson is one of my favorite plays of the week as most will focus on a potential shoot out in the passing game and because WFT find themselves as a TD dog to KC, Gibson will be passed over for the likes of McLaurin/Ricky Seals-Jones. People discuss how bad the KC pass defense is, which it is, but their rush defense sucks too, ranking 7th to last in adjusted line yards and DEAD LAST in Rush DVOA and 4th to last in receiving yards to RBs so far this season. Despite McKissic never going away, similar to that of Zeke, Gibson has gotten to a 67/33 split in terms of snaps and is getting the meaningful work, such as 66% of the opportunities and 67% of the red zone work compared to McKissic’s 18%.

What I Worry About → The concerns here are 1) Ron Rivera’s insistence on using JD in 2-minute drills, which has resulted in the 2 RBs having the same amount of total HVTs (16) this season and McKissic averaging 3-6 targets per game to Gibson’s 1-4 (11% of the team targets for McKissic, 8% for Gibson). Further, if the WFT do get stomped by the Chiefs high-powered offense, we could see a lot more McKissic than Gibson since Rivera for some reason thinks Gibson can’t be an every down/pass catching back… SMH.

Chase Edmonds

Karma Position Rank: 12

DK Proj. OWN%            7.9%
FD Proj. OWN%            8.6%

What I Like → Chase Edmonds is 5600 on DK this week (only 5900 on FD), and is averaging 5.2 targets per game, 49% of the team’s touches, 17% of the team’s targets and has the 3rd most HVTs of any RB on the slate (28; good for 5.6 per game) and hasn’t scored a TD… that needs to change. Not relying on his rushing attempts like that of Henry/Cook/etc, Edmonds has the 2nd most targets on the Cardinals through the first 5 weeks (26) and with the Browns strong run defense, I like the possibility of increased check downs/work for Edmonds.

What I Worry About → The biggest risk(s) to Edmonds are what’s kept him down all year, which is James Conner and his role in the RZ. Edmonds has only seen 24% of the red zone work and only 9% of the touches inside the 5 while Conner has seen 52% of the red zone work and 55% of the touches inside the 5. The 2 RBs are operating at around a 60/40 split in favor of Edmonds and Edmonds has double the total HVTs compared to Conner (28 vs. 14) but the red zone work is certainly a concern as we’ve seen thus far this season.

Tier 3

Javonte Williams

Karma Position Rank: 13

DK Proj. OWN%            3.0%
FD Proj. OWN%            4.3%

What I Like → God I hope Melvin is out because 1) he’s dust 2) he’s hurt and 3) Williams has shown elite ability through the first 5 weeks in a time share. Seeing 49% of the RB Opportunities, Williams edges Gordon in HVTs (17 vs. 14) and has seen 50% of the touches inside the 10 and 50% inside the 5 compared to Gordon’s 33% for both. If Gordon is out, Williams could see a near every down role and capitalize on his already 2-4 targets per game against a Raiders defense tat has given up 27 fantasy points on average to RBs and a non-intimidating front seven.

What I Worry About → The worry starts and ends with Gordon playing as they should continue to split time and essentially eating into each other’s production/ceiling. Not much more to say than that as the opportunities, matchup, and skill are there but it’s hard to achieve a slate-winning score with a near even split in the backfield.

WR

Tier 1

Tyreek Hill

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            15.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            21.9%

What I Like → Tyscum is seeing 42% of his team’s air yards, averaging 10.2 targets per game (28% of team targets), 22% of the red zone targets, and facing a WFT that ranks 2nd to last in touchdown rate/is 3rd to last in Pass DVOA. Hill carries the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate each and every week as he already has 2 games this season with 11 catches and nearly 200 yards, good for 37/47 DK points (31/42 FD points) through 5 games… seems good.

What I Worry About → The worry is only that 1) Hill’s injury is worse than we think and he’s limited and 2) that while him and Kelce aren’t negatively correlated, there’s just some games where Kelce gets peppered with targets and Mahomes spreads the ball, as seen in Weeks 2-3 where Hill a total of 8 catches for 70 yards and zero TDs… boom/bust for his price? Maybe, but the ceiling game is always live to break the slate.

Terry McLaurin

Karma Position Rank: 4

DK Proj. OWN%            16.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            19.2%

What I Like → Heinicke is clearly better than we thought, and McLaurin has certainly been a beneficiary, receiving 46% of the team’s air yards, which is good for 30% of the team targets and 9.8 per game. Now he’s facing the worst pass defense in the league with the Chiefs 2nd to last in explosive pass plays allowed, 3rd to last in yards per attempt allowed, and a game script that presents the highest Vegas total of Week 6… McLaurin trails only Davante Adams in total targets since Week 2 across the NFL.

What I Worry About → The only worry here is that Heinicke and the offense struggle and fail to get McLaurin meaningful targets. While he has an absurd air yards share/target rate, it is worth noting that in Week 4 he had 13 targets but only 6 catches (2 TDs) and Week 5 had 11 targets but only 4 catches for 46 yards. WFT can pass all over the Chiefs but if McLaurin is limited in catchable targets then it’ll be near impossible to pay off the price tag/projected ownership.

Keenan Allen

Karma Position Rank: 10

DK Proj. OWN%            11.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            8.9%

What I Like → This is not a play because I don’t like Mike Williams but it’s hard to pass up on Keenan when he’s 1700 cheaper on DK (only 900 cheaper on FD) when Keenan is seeing 10.2 targets per game, 32% of the air yards and projected (for me at least) as nearly an identical ceiling to Williams. The biggest difference to me, besides price, is the red zone usage as Keenan has seen 32% of Herbert’s red zone targets (Williams 18%). I like Williams as an elite play/stacking option as well, but I like the positive regression for Allen as Williams is the WR3 on the year, Allen WR17, yet per expected fantasy points, Williams is the WR7 and Keenan is the WR5, giving us potential for a blowup spot.

What I Worry About → The worry here, and I say “worry” as if I don’t like Mike, but if Williams is force fed deep targets due to a superior CB matchup (Ravens CBs are all short, whereas Williams is a MAN at 6 foot 4 and 220 LBS) where he can destroy the injured secondary, then there may not be enough fantasy points to go around.

Jakobi Meyers

Karma Position Rank: 11

DK Proj. OWN%            11.9%
FD Proj. OWN%            13.1%

What I Like → With the 3 worst defenses in terms of fantasy points against for WRs off the main slate, Meyers has the best matchup in terms of DVP as the Cowboys have given up 46 fantasy points per game to WRs. Meyers should avoid Diggs for at least a majority of the game and while he somehow still hasn’t scored (was stopped on the 1-yard line last week), he’s seeing 9 targets a game, 30% of the Pats air yards, and a healthy 9.1 aDOT despite Jones’ inability/willingness to push the ball downfield deep. Meyers doesn’t carry the 40-point ceiling of Hill/Adams/Williams/Jefferson, but he has seen consistent targets and usage and should be targeted early and often given the Cowboys high-powered offense.

What I Worry About → The worry is what I somewhat outlined above, which is Meyers not carrying that “big ceiling” that we’re looking for in GPPs. Further, as seen last week when Jones spread the ball to 8 different receivers, Meyers is the #1 target but doesn’t have the mega-share of top WRs (i.e. 40% of air yards/30% team target share) so there is a lot of risk of the Pats either getting blown out or the Pats succeeding but without a massive performance by any one player.

Tier 2

Tyler Boyd

Karma Position Rank: 13

DK Proj. OWN%            8.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            4.5%

What I Like → Boyd seems to be getting lost in the shuffle this week as people look towards Higgins after he saw 7 targets and a few near scores last week and Ja’Marr Chase who has looked God-like with more TDs than all other rookie WRs combined through 5 weeks. Boyd is more suitable on DK as someone who presents a low aDOT (5.7) but has been a steady target for Burrow with 6.8 per game/25% of the team targets/22% of the red zone targets. Boyd may have a lower ceiling than Higgins, and certainly has a lower floor than Chase, but he gives us the highest floor of the three and should be the only one without shadow coverage this week as he does most of his work out of the slot.

What I Worry About → The worries here are pretty obvious as we have three talented receivers who all average around the same targets per game but Chase the massive leader and clear alpha with a 43% air yards share and Higgins an explosive WR in his own right. It’s possible Boyd gets his targets but doesn’t give us enough value without a TD and it’s worth noting that upon Higgins return last week his targets dropped from 11 in Week 4 to only 5 in Week 5.

Robby Anderson

Karma Position Rank: 26

DK Proj. OWN%            3.8%
FD Proj. OWN%            3.7%

What I Like → There is always a “woulda/coulda/shoulda” in gambling (and life), but man, Darnold threw a ball out of bounds last week that if he hit Robby would have been a TD without question (look it up). DJ Moore is the beast in this offense, that can’t be argued, but Robby is still seeing targets! He has 18 targets through his last 2 weeks with only 7 catches for 76 yards to show for it. Despite a very poor season thus far, Robby is still seeing 30% of the team’s air yards, 5.6 targets per game, and should see a lot of the very dusty Bashaud Breeland… he’s only 4800 on DK (5500 on FD) and while he is super high boom/bust, if he catches some deep balls, he has slate-breaking upside and will be owned by no one.

What I Worry About → The worries here are abundant; I won’t lie to you. First off, Robby has been mostly living in the shadow of DJ Moore and second, with the potential return of CMC, his target share will certainly fall (and maybe drastically) which gives an even greater likelihood of his TD drought and lack of usage continuing… obviously Robby is a GPP only play and someone I would probably only use as part of a stack given the inconsistency and production this year.

Tier 3

Van Jefferson Jr.

Karma Position Rank: 28

DK Proj. OWN%            2.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            1.1%

What I Like → If we’re talking just tournaments (which we are), Van Jefferson makes for an elite pivot off of the likes of Kupp/Woods/Higbee at a dirt-cheap price for someone who’s seen 16 targets over the last 3 weeks, seeing 21% of the Rams’ air yards this season, and running a route on nearly 96% of Stafford’s drop backs. Is there risk? Massive; however, with a huge aDOT of 14.9, a YPT of 11.0, and about 4-6 targets per game, I think he’s worth the risk as part of a Rams team stack and/or Rams/NYG game stack with him “busting” more often than “booming” but tremendous leverage when he does hit.

What I Worry About → The worries are pretty obvious… Van is still the clear #3 in the offense with Kupp/Woods combining for 18 targets a game and over 50% of the team’s air yards and target share and if we add in Higbee we get about 70% of the team targets through those three… so Van is certainly a mega risk/reward play and I wouldn’t use him as a one off but rather as part of a stack given that his floor is very much in the range of 0-2 points.

John Ross III

Karma Position Rank: 48

DK Proj. OWN%            5.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            3.7%

What I Like → Pure punt here, but with Golladay sidelined, Slayton very questionable, and the Giants team in utter disarray, Ross’ speed keeps in play for a flier that can literally pay off his salary in 1 play. 9 targets over the last 2 games with the Giants’ top 3 WRs all injured, Ross has quietly seen 20% of the team’s air yards and run a route on 94.2% of Daniel Jones’ drop backs (per PFF).

What I Worry About → Shepard is most likely returning which should move Ross down and given his play style, his floor is more likely to hit than his ceiling, as shown by his 5 targets last week that resulted in 1 catch for 13 yards… like Jefferson, I would only play him in as a cheap run back in a game stack or in cash if all 3 NYG WRs are out again but the risks are pretty clear cut here nevertheless.

TE

Travis Kelce

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            14.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            15.2%

What I Like → The main reason I mention Kelce here is not to waste everyone’s time because we know how good he is, but because through the first 4 weeks is DK price was 8000+ yet this past Sunday (off the main slate) and this week he’s dropped to only 7000… while that is still very high for a “TE” (he’s not even a TE tbh), given his ability/ceiling/usage, this price is pretty laughable. Of note, I have Kelce’s projected ceiling at EIGHT (8!!!!) points higher than Kelce/Andrews, with Waller in particular only being $400 cheaper on DK (massive $1500 cheaper on FD). Since Kelce is more or less a receiver with TE designation, we’re underpaying for someone who has the same target share as Ja’Marr Chase but more total targets per game, more red zone usage, and a better/pass heavy team.

What I Worry About → The concern is that I just spent some time writing why Kelce is so underpriced, therefore probably jinxing him into a game similar to that in Week 4 vs. the Eagles when he only had 4 catches for 23 yards… but let’s ignore that.

Dalton Schultz

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            3.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            3.1%

What I Like → I feel like this is VERY likely to regress to expectations but while I can still write this, I feel like I must: over the last 3 weeks, Amari Cooper has 12 targets, Lamb 12 targets, and Dalton Schultz… 22 targets. LOL. Over that same span, Schultz has finished the week as TE1/TE5/TE8… maybe Dak will start to focus in on Lamb/Cooper, but right now, Schultz is sub 5k on DraftKings (6500 on FD), is seeing 6.2 targets per game, 17% of the red zone targets, and trails only Jonnu Smith (who has run 50 less route) in Targets/Route of all TEs on the slate (0.25), and yes, that’s higher than Kelce/Andrews/Waller/Hockenson/others!

What I Worry About → The worries here are 1) the matchup is one of the tougher this year as the Pats have only yielded 5.4 DK points (4.4 FD points) on average to the TE position this year, granted the best TE they’ve faced by far is Gesicki in Week 1, but nevertheless, there may not be as much separation/opportunity for Schultz in the game script. Second, and much more obvious, is Schultz has most likely far exceeded in terms of production when looking at his actual points versus expected which could be a sign for some regression to the mean on top of Blake Jarwin still running the same number of routes as Schultz but having seen far less targets so far this season.

Hunter Henry

Karma Position Rank: 9

DK Proj. OWN%            3.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            1.9%

What I Like → While the snap shares are pretty close for Henry and Jonnu Smith, Henry has 10 catches for 107 yards and 2 TDs over the last 2 weeks, while Jonnu Smith ran just 6 total routes Week 5 vs. the Texans. For the season, Henry has run 135 routes to Smith’s 71 and this week get’s a solid matchup as the Cowboys are 2nd to last in DVOA against TEs (FootballOutsiders). While I still expect Smith to get targets, it’s encouraging for Henry to see consistent snaps, edging Smith for the season (Henry 71% of team snaps, Smith 55% on average).

What I Worry About → The concerns here are pretty plentiful, unfortunately, as yes Henry is seeing the routes instead of the blocking role, but Smith is still seeing 3-5 targets per game and is seeing nearly 28% of the red zone targets compared to Henry’s 13%. While I think Henry is the more trustworthy/consistent option (especially in terms of TD equity), Smith is still live to catch a TD with his decent usage in the red zone.

Jared Cook

Karma Position Rank: 8

DK Proj. OWN%            5.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            3.2%

What I Like → I feel like Jared Cook is 50 years old and been on 20 teams; however, despite my perceived age of him, he’s seeing over 5 targets per game, 13% of the Chargers’ team targets and just under 15% of the red zone targets. While the numbers may be skewed as the Ravens have faced a murderer’s row of TEs through 5 weeks, they are giving up nearly 20 fantasy points a game to the position (2nd most in the league) and like others I’ve mentioned above, I think Cook presents an interesting pivot in a Chargers or LAC/BAL game stack that is much riskier sure but will be very low owned. Cook has run a route on 87% of Herbert’s drop backs (155 routes total) compared to Parham and Anderson, who have run a route on 70-75% of drop backs and have run a combined total of 128 routes through 5 weeks.

What I Worry About → The concerns are pretty straightforward here: 1) With Cook one of 3 TEs who see meaningful snaps each game, there is a lot of risk of him being held out of the end zone, as Parham has only seen a combined 5 targets the last 2 weeks for 4 catches but 2 of those have been TDs. To go along with that, while Cook still leads the TEs in snap share/targets, it’s worth noting that Parham has seen his snap% increase the last 3 weeks while Cooks’ has mostly stayed the same/slightly crept down.

Stacks

Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.

The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.

DraftKings Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)

FanDuel Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)

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