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Course: Torrey Pines (South Course) / Torrey Pines (North Course)

Fast Facts

• Torrey Pines (South) Par 72; ≈ 7700-7800 yards; longest on tour
  • Torrey Pines (North) Par 72; ≈ 7300 yards
• Average Cut: -1 or -2
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Bethpage Black (NORTHERN TRUST/US Open)
  • Club de Chapultepec (WGC – Mexico)
  • Muirfield Village (The Memorial)
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo/PGA Championship)
  • Riviera CC (Genesis Invitational)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
• SG: OTT (heavy emphasis on Driving Distance)
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Poa)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (19 players):

Plays

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 32^nd // 14^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 13^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 2^nd

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 123^rd // 17^th

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 22^nd // 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 25^th // 14^th // 7^th // 2^nd // 31^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 5^th  

Notes: Bryson doesn’t have elite course history here but it’s important to remember that he’s a completely different player now as the #1 ranked player in the field, by far, in Driving Distance, which should give him a significant advantage with how long this course is, he’s only missed 1 cut since last February, and just needs to find the putter again as he’s lost strokes in 3 of his last 4 measured events on the greens

2) Talor Gooch ($8,900) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 9^th  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 9^th // 6^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 68^th // 14^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 39^th // 12^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 10^th  

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 78^th // 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 27^th // 15^th // 1^st // 60^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 48^th // 36^th // 3^rd // 51^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 15^th   

Notes: Playing elite golf right now and although it may be odd seeing him in this pricing tier, his form the last several months is terrific with last week his first MC since last August with a win, T4, T5, 2 T11s, and a T15 in his last 11 starts; his best putting surface by far is Poa, he’s made all 4 cuts at the Farmers and he’s a great course fit

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($10,300) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 94^th // 15^th  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 99^th // 16^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 78^th // 16^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 6^th  

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 62^nd // 11^th  

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st  

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 45^th // 8^th // 6^th // MC // 10^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // 18^th // MC // 51^st // 43^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 4^th

Notes: All of DJ’s stats will look terrible as he hasn’t played in a while (on the PGA TOUR at least) and didn’t have as elite a season as year’s past in 2021; however, I think this is a great buy-low spot on DJ based on the unknowns surrounding him but he’s a great course fit with a lot of success at WGC – Mexico, US Open courses, and the Genesis

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 24%

Play/Fade/Context: Could copy and paste the same story each week on Rahm… he’s the best player in the world, without question, his last 5 starts here: 7^th // 2^nd // 5^th // 29^th // 1^st and he came T14 last week and didn’t even play particularly well… not to mention he won the US open at Torrey last year

Tony Finau → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: I normally try to get away from the Finau mega-chalk weeks but it’s tough here… his course history is incredible with 7/7 made cuts with a T2 // T6 // T13 // T6 // T4 // T18 // T24 in that span; Finau has gained strokes on APP in 7 straight events, gained T2G in his last 4, OTT in his last 4, and at only 9100 instead of 10K+ I’m fine eating the chalk here, especially in cash, with the form + history

Will Zalatoris → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: Willy Z is a great talent and his ball striking game is one of the best in the field, but as a chalky option after his first T10 or better (in a no cut) since the PGA Championship last May and a very, very poor putter and poor around the green game I’m fine pivoting off him here so guys like Sungjae/Scheffler/Leishman/Gooch/Conners

Sam Burns → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: I mentioned on the pod that it’s weird to see Burns in this price range and Vegas odds of 20/1 or so, but it’s very deserved; Burns has made 10 straight cuts with a Win // T2 // T5 // T7 // T8 and 3 other T20s or better in that span; I don’t dislike Burns at all and haven’t made up my mind, but my only pause is that generally he plays/torches weaker fields as opposed to strong field events and at only $200 more, I slightly prefer Bryson as a better course fit/lower owned option

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (44 players):

Plays

1) Justin Rose ($7,900) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 86^th // 38^th  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 65^th // 25^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 98^th // 35^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 18^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 8^th  

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 25^th // 10^th  

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 9^th // 12^th // 57^th // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – MC // 1^st // 8^th // 4^th // MC // MC // 33^rd

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 37^th  

Notes: Rose had a down last several months as he dealt with injuries but he has quietly made his last 10 cuts with a recent T6 finish at the BMW PGA Championship on the Euro Tour and is an obvious course fit as a former winner here with a win, a Top 5, and a Top 10 in 3 of his last 4 starts at Torrey Pines; I like targeting Rose in strong field/harder courses with his strong short game and I think a lack of high ranks in the key stats should keep his ownership pretty low

2) Lanto Griffin ($7,700) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 55^th // 28^th  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 45^th // 18^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 65^th // 28^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 6^th  

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 6^th  

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 29^th // 13^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // 40^th // 64^th // 7^th // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 7^th // MC // 12^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 27^th    

Notes: Similar to my thoughts on Burns/Gooch, it may seem like Lanto is overpriced, but he’s in great form with 5 straight made cuts that includes a T6 // T7 // and a T3 last week at the Amex; Lanto has gained strokes OTT in 3 straight events, gained T2G in 4 of his last 5, and has come T12 or better at Torrey in 2 of his last 3 tries

3) Patrick Rodgers ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 45^th // 22^nd  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 71^st // 28^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 57^th // 25^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 82^nd // 32^nd

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 11^th  

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 28^th // 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 40^th // 57^th // 17^th // 4^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: MC // 9^th // MC // MC // 4^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 25^th

Notes: Rodgers’ course history is nothing short of bizarre with 4 MC and a T9 and a T4… great short game, great California player and Poa putter, and a great course fit with a T12 last year at the Genesis and a T37 at Quail Hollow; Rodgers makes for a great boom or bust GPP play as someone who is volatile, not only in course history, but looking at his last 10 starts he has 3 T6 finishes or better and a T23 along with 3 MC and a weak T57 at the RSM Classic

 

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Joaquin Niemann ($7,700) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 44^th // 21^st  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 68^th // 27^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 63^rd // 27^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 81^st // 31^st

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 7^th  

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 125^th // 39^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 23^rd // 28^th // 45^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 49^th // 72^nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 38^th  

Notes: I like taking a chance on Niemann similar to that of Rose or DJ; his long term form and stats are great but he won’t be on many people’s radar due to the long layoff and his last 2 starts were both MC (in November); he hasn’t played this tournament in a few years, but he has made both cuts at Torrey and is a much different player compared to his start in 2020/2019; the putter is always a worry, but he’s quietly in the top 30 in the field in Driving Distance Gained and is a good scrambler despite being a below average putter

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Luke List → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: Chalk Luke List just never feels good but man… it’s hard to look at his stats and just move on as he’s ranked 2^nd in the field SG: T2G/8^th SG: APP/3^rd SG: OTT/7^th Driving Distance/2^nd BoB and Top 40 in Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance… he’s made his last 4 cuts at Torrey with a T10 and T12 in that span so I like him as a “safeish” cash play but think if he approaches the 18-20%+ ownership range, he’s worth a fade in GPPs… I like him as an outright at 70/1 as my main exposure

Maverick McNealy → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: McNealy is in great form the last several months with only 1 MC in his last 15 starts, 9 finishes of T25 or better, and a solid Poa putter… I like McNealy and his stats as he’s 21^st in the field in SG: T2G/14^th SG: APP/7^th SG: OTT but my only pause is his poor scrambling ability (136^th in the field) and if he garners heavy ownership, I probably will lean towards a pivot to guys like Homa/Rose/Keegan

Ryan Palmer → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: Palmer has made 4 straight cuts and it’s hard to ignore his course history with a T2 // T21 // T13 // T2 in 4 starts at Torrey and has sneaky distance, ranking 26^th in the field in Driving Distance Gained along with 20^th in SG: OTT/21^st SG: APP/16^th SG: T2G… however, this is still Ryan Palmer who has a terrible short game, ranking 79^th in Scrambling and 127^th in SG: Putting; he’s not a bad play, but not someone I’m prioritizing

OTHERS I LIKE: Corey Conners // Cameron Tringale // Aaron Wise // Jhonattan Vegas // Keith Mitchell

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (83 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) J.J. Spaun ($6,900) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Pretty much fell off the Earth the last 2 years or so but has shown some signs of life, is a California guy (from San Diego) so used to these Poa greens and despite a shakier iron/OTT game, has a strong short game (ranks 20^th in the field in Bogey Avoidance/14^th in Scrambling); obvious risk but will be virtually unowned and has made 7 of his last 8 cuts on TOUR with a T7/T16/T25 (last week) and has gained strokes OTT in his last 3 and over 3 strokes T2G in 2 of his last 3 starts

2) Hank Lebioda ($6,500) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Played well for a while last week until falling off on Sunday; ranks Top 20 in the field in Birdies or Better, ranks 29^th in Scrambling, and 13^th in SG: Putting on Poa greens… has only made 1 cut at Torrey out of 3 tries, but he ranks 35^th in my course comp rankings; has played this tourney 5 times and made 3 of 5 cuts with a T23/T30/T9 in that span and if he can limit the huge numbers and get the putter back working, he has solid T30 or better upside at only 6500

3) Jason Dufner ($6,400) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: I don’t know why I can never quit Dufner… so strong across the key stats: 25^th in the field in SG: T2G/22^nd SG: APP/29^th BoB and although he’s a horrendous putter has actually gained strokes in 4 of his last 5 measured events with the flat stick…

4) James Hahn ($6,400) → pOWN%: <1%

Quick Hits: Punt that is mostly based on course fit as he ranks 27^th in my course comp model as a past winner of both the Genesis and the Wells Fargo (both course comps), a 6^th at Memorial, and worth a shot in GPPs at what should be near zero OWN% where there’s a ton of risk, obviously, but a guy who can get hot and rack up birdies

 

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Tony Finau

3) Marc Leishman

4) Talor Gooch

5) Justin Rose

6) Lanto Griffin

7) Luke List

8) Aaron Wise

9) Jhonattan Vegas

10) Charley Hoffman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 10% Course History

1. Jon Rahm
2. Justin Thomas
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Sam Burns
5. Luke List
6. Talor Gooch
7. Lanto Griffin
8. Scottie Scheffler
9. Marc Leishman
10. Aaron Wise
11. Tony Finau
12. Xander Schauffele
13. Dustin Johnson
14. Tom Hoge
15. Justin Rose
16. Will Zalatoris
17. Mackenzie Hughes
18. Matthew Wolff
19. Sungjae Im
20. Bryson DeChambeau