All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!
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Course: Winged Foot
- Par 70 approx. 7477 yards
- Poa/Bentgrass Greens (13+ on the stimp; FAST); 6600 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)
- Field: 144 players; Top 60 and Ties make the cut
- Designed by A.W. Tillinghast with Gil Hanse revamp in 2016-2017
- Most recent US Open hosted here was 2006, won by Geoff Ogilvy
- 2006 stats: Ogilvy made 9 birdies TOTAL; won at +5
- More 2006 stats: Scoring average of 74.99, Fairways hit at 50%, Greens 52%, Scrambling 40%
- Tight fairways (19-23 yards on avg) with thick rough from 3.5-5 inches
- Corollary Courses: Oakmont, Bethpage Black, Baltusrol, Firestone, Torrey Pines (South Course), TPC Harding Park
- Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Jason Day, Tiger Woods, Charles Howell III, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed
Course and Weather Notes: Didn’t know if we’d even be getting a US Open this year due to the pandemic but it’s here and this course is going to eat these players alive (or at least it should). Winged Foot was the sight of the 2006 US Open which famously saw Phil double his last hole of the day (after only needing a bogey) to give it to Ogilvy who won the tournament at +5, had zero rounds under par, and saw the field cut after Friday at 10 OVER PAR. This course is no joke with only 1 hole having played under par in 2006 and it was the easier 550-yard Par 5 ninth. The fairways are tight, the rough is thick, and I would be shocked to see a winning score under par (I projected between 2 to 4 over for the winner). It’s a weird week in that looking at stats I’m focused on, I have included nothing much with scoring or birdie makers as I think that will be mitigated here with how long the course is, how fast the greens are running, and the fact that if you miss the fairways you quite literally can’t advance it. It’s only Tuesday as of this writing but I’m also seeing possible wind gusts of 20+ mph throughout the day on Friday which would somehow make this even a harder test. Sure guys have gotten better since 2006, there is better equipment, and overall players just hit it farther; however, I am laser focused on the guys who hit a ton of fairways and mitigate the mistakes. I don’t think the bomb and gauge or elite birdie makers can’t succeed here, but in terms of fantasy scoring, I think a lot of the birdie fest guys such as Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, and even Si Woo Kim have every chance to win but will be tough to return value with a lack of scoring opportunities. The last thing I’ll note is that I’m putting much more of an emphasis in my rosters and bets on guys who I project to finish in the Top 20 or better, which sounds obvious, but many weeks you have guys who may finish T38 but come Top 15 in scoring due to birdies but I will definitely take less risk on fliers who may very well shoot 85 on Day 1 and be totally out of things.
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance:
- SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ AND 75-125)
- SG: Around the Green
- Driving Blend (SG: OTT + Fairways Gained + Driving Distance)
- Bogey Avoidance
- GIRs Gained
- SG: T2G
SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts
Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as DJ/Fleetwood/Brooks, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys.
Similar to other stacked fields, we have some serious values on what I think are very high-quality players with very good multipliers. Because this field is 144 players and a lower cut rate than normal (Top 60 and ties as opposed to Top 65 and ties), I think I will take a riskier approach and try to catch some luck with higher multiplier/higher upside players. Maybe I’m getting suckered in, but I think Martin Kaymer is an awesome value at a multiplier of 1.55; he used to be one of the best in the world until an injury plagued him but he’s a grinder who knows how to save par and take his medicine. I like Corey Conners as long as he doesn’t miss the green (highest GIR% on TOUR but short game is iffy at best), Kevin Streelman is having one of the better stretches of his career and hits a ton of fairways… down lower I love the plays on Matthew Wolff and Tyrrell Hatton as Wolff has the coveted massive distance and is very accurate off the tee while Hatton is getting some serious buzz but plays tough courses well. I think some interesting leverage spots are Justin Rose, who still is a world class player but has been awfully volatile this season, Harris English who people are off after 1 bad week a few weeks ago, and Louis Oosthuizen who has a fantastic US Open record and is striking it great right now.
Below is my table of 15 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays to see my SD core for the week!
StatHero Ranks and Thoughts
Several months ago, we partnered with a very innovative fantasy company called StatHero and what makes them so enticing is similar to betting, you’re not competing against 100k people in a GPP contest with less than a 0.001% chance of winning but rather playing against them. The rules are simple, you beat the “StatHero” team, you move on, and if you don’t, you lose. The goal is to get to the end and either decide with other users if you want to split the pot or you can keep playing to try to get the mega prize. One of the bigger advantages is that you can actually see StatHero’s lineup before you construct your own so you know what you’re up against and how contrarian/different you want to get. Below I will post the scoring format and will give my thoughts for how I would construct this week as well as show what StatHero is using for Round 1.
Note that for PGA it is round by round, not the full tournament, and you have an “MVP” spot in which you get 2x points. You get to pick 5 players (TOUR Championship I believe they’re using 4 players instead of 5 due to the limited field) but you have to be careful because once you use players in a round, if you advance, you can’t use the same players again.
It’s super fun and we had a TON of success last year in NFL so go download it on the Apple Store and Android users should be able to download from the Google Play store very, very soon.
StatHero Lineup: U.S. Open Round 1 ($10 entry, $1000 up top!)
CPT – Webb Simpson
Player 1) Jon Rahm
Player 2) Adam Scott
Player 3) Viktor Hovland
Player 4) Mark Hubbard
StatHero Lineup: U.S. Open Round 1 ($25 entry, $1500 up top!)
CPT – Justin Thomas
Player 1) Dustin Johnson
Player 2) Patrick Cantlay
Player 3) Xander Schauffele
Player 4) Rory McIlroy
Interesting to see the StatHero lineup this week as I feel like it’s almost chosen at random but this week, in both contests, their lineups are pretty stacked. My favorite plays in a vacuum and who I would feel comfortable rostering at CPT would be Webb (in the $25 entry), Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jon Rahm. This tournament will have us embracing some serious variance and shocking MCs so it’s hard to say that anyone is really “safe” but I do think using the top guys who play well in tough fields/tough courses in Round 1 is the only way to beat those lineups. I’ll list below some guys I would use in the flex spots but a few names I personally am avoiding this week are Bryson (misses too many fairways), Tony FInau (prefer him on birdie fests), and a lot of the lower tier names. Fill ins below:
Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, Harris English, Paul Casey, Matthew Wolff, Louis Oosthuizen, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood (if you’re feeling riskier)