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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 BMW Championship DraftKings Preview w/ Plays/Fades/Pivots/Value Bets/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Medinah Country Club (Course #3), Medinah, IL

Fast Facts

  • Par 72, 7613 Yards
  • Hosted 1999 and 2006 PGA Championship (both won by Tiger); Ryder Cup in 2012
    • Has gone through heavy redesigns since 2006 (many done by Rees Jones)
  • Greens: Bentgrass running around 12 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
  • Average Green Size: 6,00 sq. ft. (average for the TOUR)
  • 71 Bunkers, 2 Water Hazards
  • Field: 69 (nice) players (1 WD); NO CUT EVENT
  • A LOT of dogleg holes (mainly left) that take driver out of players’ hands
  • Average Score in 2006 was OVER par
  • Expect a winning score similar to last week; around -15 but if someone gets hot, -20
  • Course MUCH longer than it seems; 2 reachable par 5s and a driveable Par 4…
  • Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Gary Woodland, Paul Casey

Course and Weather Notes: It’s tough to say how this course will play this week as it hasn’t hosted a stroke play event since 2006 and the course looks quite different since that time; we saw Tiger win the latest version at -18 which I think is more of an outlier as I believe the cut that week was around +1. I think it will play well into the double digits under par range, but the threat of weather could heavily change things. As a Chicago resident, I can tell you that we had endless rain earlier in the summer, but it has been rather dry the last few weeks; however, we are expected to get rain on/off the next few days and it looks like Medinah may have strong chances of precipitation on Friday-Sunday. I think the ultimate course set up will favor the bombs as this course is LONG, but I don’t think it takes the shorter hitters out of play. Webb is a short hitter, yes, but he excels in the long iron range and is therefore very successful. I would overweight SG: OTT this week and key in on long iron players and Par 5 scorers.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: T2G
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
  • SG: OTT (slight emphasis to distance)
  • SG: Par 5s
  • Birdie-Or-Better/Opportunities Gained
  • Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 17%; Boy, the tournament that JT turns around his putting back to normal he is going to win… in his last 6 events he has gained: +3.9, +1.9, +6.1, +4.5, +5.2, and +6.1 strokes on APP (he ranks 5th in SG: APP blend this week) and putting his last 6 weeks: -3.4, -2.7, -7.8 (!!!!!!!), British Open (no SG: P stats), +1, -1.3; highlighted last week how unusual it was for DJ and after 2 rounds he was the leader… JT is 2nd in the field in SG: T2G, 11th in BoB, 16th in SG: OTT, 13th in GIRs… he has it all just needs to find the putter

2) Adam Scott ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 17%; Will be chalky but then again most players will this week as it’s a 70 person no cut event; 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: APP, 2nd in GIRs, 16th in Par 5s, and 2nd in BoB… LOL if this guy putted even average he would win so many events; he better have the long putter this week or I will be fully fading

Fades

1) Justin Rose ($10,200) Projected Ownership: 15%; Justin Rose is obviously an elite golfer… you can’t play everyone in this small event with only the best of the best; Rose hasn’t been AS sharp as normal however as he’s been gaining, with the exception of the WGC, majority of his strokes with his putter; last week he was flat everywhere and gained almost 8 strokes putting; at the US Open he gained 0.4 with APP and 6.2 with the putter; some possible regression is coming as he ranks 31st in SG: T2G, 39th in SG: OTT, and is the 5th highest priced… I like others around him more

2) Matt Kuchar ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 12%; Probably just had an off week last week but again, can’t play everyone; Fleetwood is 25th in T2G, 54th in SG: APP, 53rd in Par 5 scoring, 42nd in GIRs, and 49th in BoB… he’s an elite OTT player but others above/below him present better value I think

Favorite Pivot

Dustin Johnson ($10,700) Projected Ownership: 11%; This is the only place to pivot because for all guys above 9K, DJ is the only I have lower than about 14%… what a world; yes, he has not been himself whatsoever, but he’s still 9th in T2G, 20th in SG: APP, 23rd in SG: OTT, and 1st in BoB/Opps. Gained; hasn’t looked right the last several weeks but I think we can continue to bet on his long-term abilities here…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700) Projected Ownership: 10%; Going right back to my pivot play from last week and making him a core play; Louis ranks 16th in the field in T2G, 16th in SG: APP, 7th in GIRs, 24th in Bogey Avoidance, 15th in BoB, and 20th in Scrambling; he has shown great form with his irons as he’s gained in 3 tournaments straight, finished Top 20 in 3 straight, and has yet to gain strokes with the putter in any of those finishes; I’m hoping the elevated price keeps his ownership down as well

2) Jason Day ($8,100) Projected Ownership: 7: Ok, he has sucked… we got that out of the way; I’m going to buy into the new caddy, new blood narrative here and play some Day; here’s the bad: 39th in T2G, 42nd in SG: APP, 48th in SG: Par 5s, and 64th in BoB; here’s the good: 8th in SG: OTT, 9th in GIRs; like DJ, I will bet on Day’s long term form here and appreciate that I’m getting a world class/former major winner at sub 10% and take 15-20%…

3) Chez Reavie ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 8%; His results have cooled off since his win, as expected, and I hope that keeps his ownership lower this week; per his stats, he’s still been awesome, ranking 6th in SG: APP, 9th in SG: OTT, 23rd in GIRs, and 17th in BoB… now he’s only 7k and I think a great core guy to have in a no cut event as he can get hot in one round and feed off of that… in for 20-25%

Fades

1) Jordan Spieth ($8,900) Projected Ownership: 9%; I will continue to fade him and have him make me look foolish… the man is gaining 2 strokes PER ROUND over his last 8 rounds… absurd; still 64th T2G (out of 69 guys), 65th in SG: APP, 68th in SG: OTT, 63rd in GIRs, and 49th in SG: Par 5s… no; and his price is now up $900 from last week as well

2) Sungjae Im ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 14%; I will continue to fade the chalky Im who seemingly never takes a week off; I have heard all around that he is a machine and some of the best talent players have ever seen; however, he has lost strokes on APP in 4 of his last 5, ranks 52nd in GIRs, 40th in BoB, and chalk at this price rarely works out; I’m not playing cash this week but I think he could be that potential cash chalk bomb…

Favorite Pivot

Rickie Fowler ($8,800) Projected Ownership: 11%; Not sure if I’ve ever seen Rickie at this price or ownership maybe ever but he was a fade of mine last week and it worked but I like him here… his APP game has been fine, but he’s suffered from SG: ARG (around the green) randomly his last few events; he is on his best putting surface, has been cold with the putter in general, and last week lost on SG: OTT for the first time since the PLAYERS in March; have to take advantage of him at sub 15% so I will try to be overweight at 25% or so

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Paul Casey ($8,400), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200), TIGER MF WOODS ($8,000 and sub 5% owned………………), Joaquin Niemann ($7,300)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Emiliano Grillo ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 7%; Going right back here after he burns me time and time again… now at sub 7K, Grillo is 23rd in T2G, 15th in SG: APP, 27th in SG: OTT, and 18th in GIRs… in just 2 rounds, he managed to gain 4 strokes on APP last week, 2.6 OTT, 2.8 T2G, and -5.2 putting… THAT IS TALENT; he’s such an elite talent that he has to putt average just once for us and he’ll be up there

2) Wyndham Clark ($6,400) Projected Ownership: 5%; Hasn’t been terrific with the irons lately but he’s uber cheap and actually ranks 10th in SG: Par 5s, 15th in Bogey Avoidance, and 1st in Scrambling in this field; further, he’s the best player over the last 24 rounds in SG: P on Bentgrass; he hasn’t had it lately, but he’s an absolute bomber off the tee and can get hot; take 10-15%

My Favorite Cash Game Plays (I WILL NOT BE PLAYING CASH THIS WEEK PERSONALLY)

1) Webb Simpson

2) Paul Casey

3) Jason Kokrak

4) Chez Reavie

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, 0% Course History, and 15% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Rory McIlroy
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Adam Scott
  4. Jon Rahm
  5. Patrick Reed
  6. Brooks Koepka
  7. Justin Rose
  8. Louis Oosthuizen
  9. Patrick Cantlay
  10. Shane Lowry
  11. Abraham Ancer
  12. Tommy Fleetwood
  13. Justin Thomas
  14. Harold Varner III
  15. Collin Morikawa

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Justin Thomas: 16/1

Jason Day: 50/1

Chez Reavie: 100/1

Wyndham Clark Top 10: 10/1

Emiliano Grillo Top 10: +850

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Rose/JT/Rahm/Fleetwood/Louis/Xander

Possible Pivots:

Rickie

Poulter

DJ

Casey

Tiger

Day

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