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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 British Open DraftKings Picks/Euro Tour Fliers/Value Bets/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

I always love watching the British (not “The Open”) as we get extended coverage with NBC at the helm, I get to wake up at 3 am to watch Tiger and see all my lineups dead, and we always see some of the most unique links courses in the entire world year in and year out. This year we get a course that hasn’t been played in over 60 years and some interesting narratives with it being close to home to the likes of Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell in Northern Ireland. In the DFS world, we get back to the normal $20, 150 max milly maker after the $100 entry at the US Open and a plethora of other strong contests. It’s the last major of the year so we have to go a little heavier (for degens like myself) and take down the million so I can break even on the season. Onto some course and weather and PICKS…

Course and Weather Notes: I put out an extensive course preview last week with full trends, key stats, course notes, narratives, possible corollary courses, and more! Similar to the US Open last month, the true teeth of this course is WIND. Groundbreaking, I know. I have checked the weather the last 3 days in a row, a few times a day, and each time has been significantly different than the previous day… no surprise there. Long term forecasts have a decent amount of rain and potential for 30+ MPH gusts on the weekend, which I hope happens for some serious tilting, but we could see a winning score anywhere from -3 to -15 in my opinion depending on the weather. The latest on the course is that the rough is THICK and akin to most Links/Open courses, although this particular course has less bunkers than most (64), they are incredibly deep and often times require a sideways shot out or barely advancing the ball. I would target elite fairway hitters, but that’s just me…

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: T2G/SG: BS
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
  • SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
  • Scrambling
  • BoB Gained
  • SG: Par 5s
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • 3 Putt Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,600) Projected Ownership: 20%; He’ll be chalky with his recent form, OWGR ranking, stats, etc. but he’s the best player in the field this week and my pick to win… not much to say that you don’t already know: #1 in SG: BS, #1 in T2G, 4th in SG: OTT, #1 in Bogey Avoidance, #1 in BoB Gained and his last 4 British Opens he’s finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 1st… If I’m playing a 3 max I probably have him in 100% and if I’m playing 20 lineups, I would have him in 70-80% of my lineups

2) Justin Rose ($9,900) Projected Ownership: 12%; We haven’t seen Justin Rose in a while as his last start was at the US Open last month, where he finished 3rd; I think he’s starting to get talked up but as I mentioned on the pod, I’m hoping he gets SLIGHTLY overlooked as he wedged in between 2 mega popular players in Tiger Woods and Tommy Fleetwood… he ranks 9th in Scrambling for the week and 17th in 3 Putt Avoidance and although his ball striking is in the Top 5 or Top 10 like it normally is, he’s a great majors player and has 2 Top 6s and 2 Top 23rds or better in the last 5 years… I’ll target 30-40% exposure

3) Bryson Dechambeau ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 9%; After a lackluster first several months of the year, Bryson has really starting popping again having finished 2nd 2 weeks ago (could have been a winner if he hadn’t flubbed a chip) and 8th 2 weeks before that; per his stats, he’s 11th in my key SG: APP range, 18th in SG: BS, 11th in BoB Gained, and 24th in 3 Putt Avoidance… Bryon’s only played in 2 British Opens before this but I think he has the pedigree to win a major here soon and it could very well be this week… plus, we’re getting decent leverage if he indeed stays 10% or less owned; 30% for me

Fades

1) Jon Rahm ($10,600) Projected Ownership: 15%; Yes Rahm is an elite player, yes his last 3 starts have been a 3rd, 2nd, and most recently, a 1st, but I think his potential of getting into trouble and blowing up here is pretty high… per his stats, he ranks 33rd in SG: BS, 43rd in the key approach range, 46th in Bogey Avoidance, and most importantly, 95th in Scrambling… his British Open course history is pretty brief but unimpressive also with a MC last year and a 44th and 59th the 2 years prior… can’t play everyone and he’s a fade for me

2) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,700) Projected Ownership: 12%; Will be interested to track this ownership as we get closer to lock but I have a feeling it’ll be higher than my current projected as he’s always mega popular; I don’t think Tommy has looked as strong this year as he doesn’t have a Top 10 finish since the weak field at the Byron Nelson (in May); his stats aren’t spectacular either as he ranks 47th in SG: BS, 65th in SG: OTT, 97th in SG: Par 5s, 49th in BoB Gained, and 39th in Scrambling… I think this is too high a price and one that definitely won’t return value

Favorite Pivot

Tiger Woods ($10,200) Projected Ownership: 10%; Well here we are… Tiger Woods in the pivot section; now, his ownership will probably get higher than this, maybe 12-13% or so but people seem to be full fade on him and I’m not sure why? I’ve heard “it’s too cold” and “he hasn’t played,” but I don’t really care about that; he ranks 4th in the key approach range, 10th in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: Par 5s, 10th in BoB Gained, and 18th in Bogey Avoidance; he held the lead at one point last year and ultimately finished 6th… I think with his price and others around him he will be at some of the lowest ownership of the year and I’m fine taking around 20-25% to be double the field… plus it’s TIGER FUCKING WOODS

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Adam Scott ($8,800) Projected Ownership: 20%; Will probably be one of the chalkier plays on the slate but can’t ignore how solid he’s playing this year… he’s 2nd in my overall model as he ranks 1st in SG: Par 5s, 4th in BoB Gained, 7th in Scrambling, 3rd in SG: BS, 2nd in T2G, 2nd in the key approach range, and 12th in Bogey Avoidance… wow; he hasn’t played since the US Open but his last 3 finishes are 7th, 2nd, and 8th, all in elite fields; further, he has made his last 9 British Open starts in a row which includes 3 Top 25s, a Top 10, and 3 Top 5s… I assume that’s good enough for everyone? 40-50% exposure in GPPs and a cash lock for me

2) Gary Woodland ($8,200) Projected Ownership: 9%; Guy wins the US Open, misses a cut at a dumb event and is now projected for under 10% ownership… lol ok; Gary’s stinger/very low ball flight is PERFECT for this weather environment, and, not to mention, he ranks 7th in SG: BS, 5th in SG: APP, 7th in SG: Par 5s, and 3rd in BoB gained… is he the best scrambler? No, but he hits a ton of greens; he is 7/7 for made cuts at the British and expect him to put up a very solid performance again

3) Patrick Reed ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 10%; This one hurts because I can’t stand the guy but as I said on the pod, Reed never needs to be “in form” to contend or put up a Top 10; however, he actually HAS been gaining form with 4 straight made cuts, including a Top 5 at the 3M Open; he has a mixed history at the British with 3 made cuts (including 3 Top 28s or better) and 2 MC; his stats are solid as well, ranking 14th in SG: T2G, 19th in SG: APP, 9th in SG: Par 5s, 18th in BoB Gained, 34th in Scrambling, and 33rd in 3 Putt Avoidance… this is pretty cheap for a still Top 25 player in the world and a great GPP play in my opinion

Fades

1) Graeme McDowell ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 8%; Great story that he made the qualifying for the course he grew up on and I like the guy/hope he does well but this is expensive for this field and an easy fade for me… he’s a decent scrambler and putter but has subpar stats otherwise: 72nd in SG: BS, 54th in SG: APP, 114th in SG: OTT and going to be difficult to pay for that with a loaded 7k range

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 8%; Made a bet on Hatton a few weeks ago and am now regretting it… he’s too much of a hot head in my opinion for this course and his stats aren’t that great either, per his European Tour stats, 201st in GIR, 159th in SG: Putting, 101st in SG: OTT, 96th in Driving Accuracy, and 89th in Scrambling; his form is decent with only 1 MC in his last 7 starts but only one of those resulted in a Top 10; per his Open form, he finished 5th in 2016 but in his 7 starts has 5 MC and 51st on top of it… not worth the price and not worth the higher ownership as a potential “sleeper”

Favorite Pivot

Lee Westwood ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 4%; It’s so important in a week like this to of course use Fantasy National but for some, like Westwood, he’s predominantly a Euro player and so his stats on the PGA Tour will look minimal and weak; his Euro stats look like this: 15th in SG: T2G, 6th in SG: APP, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Scrambling, and 48th in GIR… pretty damn solid; his form is respectable as well with 4 straight made cuts that includes a 23rd, 18th, and 10th… can he win? Probably not, but he does have 2 3rd place finishes and a runner up in his British Open history; great GPP play at 10-15% exposure

Other Players I Like: Paul Casey ($8,300), Matt Wallace ($8,100), Webb Simpson ($7,600), Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,100), Kevin Streelman ($7,000)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Billy Horschel ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 4%; This seems like a misprice to me… he ranks 21st overall in my model, ranking 22nd in SG: T2G, 17th in SG: APP, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, 29th in SG: OTT, 20th in 3 Putt Avoidance, and 15th in Scrambling; Billy has made 5 cuts in a row, including a Top 10 at the strong Memorial field; when we get down here, we just want a made cut and Billy has that and a TON more upside; we don’t need too much to be heavy overweight so I’ll target 12-15%

2) Joaquin Niemann ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 7%; Will have to monitor this ownership as he really could get over 10% but Niemann has been playing lights out; 11th in SG: T2G, 25th in SG: APP, 7th in SG: OTT, 22nd in SG: Par 5s, 16th in BoB Gained, and 30th in Scrambling; further, here are his last 4 starts: 10th, 23rd, 5th, 5th… he’s coming here with probably the best form that doesn’t include a win and I think I’ll be heavy overweight at 20+%

Euro Fliers

Andrea Pavan ($6,400) Projected Ownership: 2.5%; a win a few weeks ago and a 4th at the Scottish last week…

Justin Harding ($6,400) Projected Ownership: 1.3%; not in form but an elite talent that is too cheap

Oliver Wilson ($6,400) Projected Ownership: <1%; made 7 cuts in a row, which includes 2 Top 8 finishes and a 19th at the Irish

Tom Lewis ($6,700)Projected Ownership: <1%; 10th on the Euro in GIR, 47th in Scrambling; not in form but a flier that no one will take; most risky play of them all

Andy Sullivan ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 3.5%; made 5 straight cuts with a runner up at the Irish

Mike Lorenzo-Vera ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 4%; holds a 9th and 2nd in last 3 starts; 16th at PGA Championship

Paul Waring ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 1%; 4 Top 25s or better in his last 5 starts, including a 6th and a 7th;

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 1%; has a win and 3rd in his last 4 starts

Fades

Besides the Euro fliers above I will be fading most everyone in the 6k range

Favorite Pivot

Adam Hadwin ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 3%; I think most will play some Euros, Niemann, or Horschel but Hadwin has really improved his form as of late and per his stats, ranks 14th in SG: APP, 25th in SG: BS, 23rd in SG: Par 5s, and 6th in BoB Gained… coming off a 4th place finish 2 weeks ago and a 6th at the RBC Canadian several weeks ago… only 3% ownership makes a great 5-10% play in GPPs

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Adam Scott

3) Matt Kuchar

4) Henrik Stenson

5) Paul Casey

6) Webb Simpson

7) Rafa Cabrera Bello

8) Kevin Streelman

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Rory McIlroy
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Patrick Cantlay
  4. Matt Kuchar
  5. Justin Rose
  6. Henrik Stenson
  7. Hideki Matsuyama
  8. Dustin Johnson
  9. Gary Woodland
  10. Chez Reavie
  11. Paul Casey
  12. Xander Schauffele
  13. Brooks Koepka
  14. Joaquin Niemann
  15. Webb Simpson
  16. Bryson DeChambeau
  17. Shane Lowry
  18. Jason Day
  19. Jon Rahm
  20. Tiger Woods

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Matt Kuchar: 50/1 (already bet); still don’t mind it at 33/1

Louis Oosthuizen: 66/1 (already bet); I love lighting money on fire

Lee Westwood: 125/1

Paul Casey: 50/1

Bryson Dechambeau: 40/1

Mike Lorenzo-Vera Top 20: 12/1

Top Spanish Player RCB: +325

Top French Player Mike Lorenzo-Vera: +165

To Miss the Cut: Phil Mickelson +120/Zach Johnson +110/Tommy Fleetwood +310

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Rory/Brooks/Rose/Rahm/Schauffele/Scott

Possible Pivots:

Jason Day

Marc Leishman

Hideki Matsuyama

Webb Simpson

Patrick Cantlay

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