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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 John Deere Classic DraftKings Picks/Preview and Value Bets

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Took a week off last week as it was the 4th of July (one of my favorites), a very weak field at a new course, and I simply didn’t have a ton of interest. I did catch the ending on Sunday and I’m not only happy for Wolff on getting his victory in less than 5 starts on the TOUR, but it shows just how bright the PGA future is with so much young talent out there. I will of course miss the days of Tiger when he retires but I think the future of the game is in great hands with the likes of Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Matt Wolff, Collin Morikawa, and many more. This week we get by far the weakest field of the year as most are resting or already over in the UK for the British Open next week. This will be another scoring/wedge fest with a likely winning score in the low -20s. Let’s get into it!

Course: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, IL

Fast Facts

  • Par 71, 7,268 yards
  • A. Weibring Design and has hosted the tournament since 2000
  • Greens: Bentgrass with around a 12 on the stimp (average)
  • Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft. (average for the TOUR)
  • Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF
  • Expected to be a wedge/birdie fest (I predict winning score -20 to -23)
  • Average cutline around -3
  • Imperative to score on the 3 reachable and very scorable Par 5s (all 550-600 yards)
  • Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Zach Johnson (former winner), Ryan Moore (former winner), Scott Brown, Brian Harman, Kyle Stanley, Sunjae Im, Charles Howell III

Course and Weather Notes: Weather looks pretty solid for all 4 days of the tournament as there is expected rain leading up but none currently predicted on the weekend. Similar to course setups we’ve seen recently, guys can be expected to have several wedges in per day as there are 3 Par 4s under 400 yards and 3 Par 5s in which 2/3 are reachable in 2 by the entire field. We should be targeting plays that excel from 150 yards and in, score on Par 5s, and have the ability to make eagles. Lastly, I put some bogey avoidance in my model as most winners here keep it to the low single digits in bogeys for the week to coincide with extreme birdie-making.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP (emphasis on <150 yards)
  • BoB Gained/Eagles Gained
  • SG: Par 5s
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Victor Hovland ($10,900) Projected Ownership: 17%; Pretty shocking to take a glance at DK pricing this week and see the 3 young rookies up top but here we are… not a ton of data on any of these guys but Hovland has an elite SG: OTT game, is a killer with his wedges, and has 3 Top 13s or better in his last 4 starts, which includes the US Open last month; in his 7 starts on TOUR this year he’s only gained strokes putting 1 time so if he can find the flatstick (and Bent is his best surface so far), he could follow up the impressive Wolff win with one his own…

2) Collin Morikawa ($10,700) Projected Ownership: 17%; I actually like Morikawa significantly better than Wolff and Hovland as he has continued to put up solid performance after solid performance with a 6th, 14th, 35th, 36th, and 2nd in his last 5 starts with no missed cuts… similar to Hovland we have very limited data, but Morikawa has gained strokes with his approaches in every start this year, including 10.7 last week… he =’s shown his ability to tear up easy courses the last 2 weeks so I think he’ll rack up birdies again and be towards the top of the leaderboard

Fades

1) Zach Johnson ($9,600) Projected Ownership: 15%; His course record here is pretty remarkable with a win, 3 runner ups, a 3rd, and a 5th; however, he has been horrible this year and has shown just about no form with his last 5 results: 58th, 35th, MC, 54th, MC, and per his stats, he ranks 61st in SG: BS, 41st in SG: APP, 83rd in Opportunities Gained, 63rd in Par 5s, and 116th in BoB Gained… easy pass for me

2) Sam Burns ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 13%; I feel like I play him every week but I can’t justify Burns at this price even in this field; he’s an elite Par 5 scorer (2nd in the field) but aside from that ranks 71st in SG: APP, 35th in Opps. Gained, and 34th in Bogey Avoidance which aren’t terrible numbers but at that price we would need better than that… I’ll fade hesitantly

Favorite Pivot

Charles Howell III ($9,500) Projected Ownership: 10%; Howell was in some pretty terrible form but has made his last 3 cuts, has only missed 1 cut in his last 8 starts at TPC Deere Run, and should get lower ownership being sandwiched between Harman and ZJ… he ranks 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 17th in SG: Par 5s, and is trending up over his last 8 rounds both T2G and in SG: APP… if I see 10% I could see him in 3-4 lineups of my 20 max build

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Kevin Tway ($8,900) Projected Ownership: 9%; I really hope Tway doesn’t garner a bunch of buzz because he lines up perfectly this week: 19th in SG: BS, 22nd in Opps. Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 8th in SG: Par 5s, and 26th in BoB Gained… he missed the cut in a weak field 2 weeks ago, but before that had made 5 straight cuts, including a 5th at the Travelers… if Tway can continue his solid wedge and T2G play he can definitely contend on what is his best putting surface…

2) Cameron Tringale ($7,700) Projected Ownership: 15%; Not sure how a chalk Tringale is going to work out but that’s where we’re trending right now… I play him basically every week so why stop now? He ranks #1 in my overall stats model as he’s 8th in SG: BS, 2nd in SG: APP, 15th in Opps. Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 5th in SG: Par 5s, and 13th in BoB Gained… in his last 5 starts he has 1 MC, a Top 5, and 2 Top 23 finishes and this seems like much too cheap a price for this terrible field…

3) Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 4%; This price makes literally no sense… Vegas may not be an elite stud but 7400 in this field??? His form is awful as he’s missed 4 of his last 5 cuts, but he ranks 7th in SG: BS, 1st in Opps. Gained, 7th in SG: Par 5s, and 2nd in BoB Gained… that’s right, he has the stats but just has been slightly off with his irons and is normally a poor putter; if he’s going to be single digits, I will take some shares as he’s won in legit fields before and is FAR too cheap…

Fades

1) Bronson Burgoon ($7,800) Projected Ownership: 10%; People are going to see his runner up finish last year and click his name but Burgoon hasn’t finished better than 35th this year, has missed 8 of his last 13 cuts, is on his worst putting surface and is much too volatile for this price… hard pass…

2) Sam Ryder ($7,500) Projected Ownership: 13%; I liked Ryder to begin the week but as I’ve dug into podcasts and articles it would appear he’s going to be the chalk of this range so I will definitely either full fade or only use a share or two… he ranks 21st in Bogey Avoidance and 24th in SG: BS but he’s only 79th in BoB Gained and 60th in SG: Par 5s… he could definitely do well but if he’s going to be over 15% it’s a fade

Favorite Pivot

J.T. Poston ($7,800) Projected Ownership: 7%; I think Poston goes overlooked here as he’s between why I project to be an extremely chalky Vaughn Taylor, Cameron Tringale, Peter Malnati, and Mackenhughes… Poston rates out 18th in SG: BS, 32nd in SG: APP, 20th in Opps. Gained, and 23rd in BoB Gained and while his form isn’t spectacular, he is coming off an 11th place at the Rocket Mortgage and has made both of his cuts at TPC Deere Run in 2018 and 2017… If he’s low owned I like being overweight the field at around 15%

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Ryan Palmer ($8,600), Joel Dahmen ($8,400), Vaughn Taylor ($7,700), Troy Merritt ($7,500)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Matt Every ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 2%; Not in very good form and with bad course history, Every acutally has decent stats for this course, as he ranks 29th in SG: APP, 26th in Opps. Gained, and 31st in BoB Gained at a sub 7k price tag… this is a pure dart play but Every will flash out of nowhere with zero form to speak of and just rack up birdies, so I don’t see why not here either…

2) Peter Uihlein ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 1%; Almost the same story as Every, Uihlein has been in pretty terrible form and has never played this course before… he ranks 54th in SG: APP, 19th in Opps. Gained, and 43rd in Bogey Avoidance… nothing about him or Every is a stud but if you take 5-7% you’ll be massively overweight with some decent dart throws

Fades

I probably will not play anyone in the 6k range this week with the exception of a few dart throws on Alex Prugh, Sebastian Munoz, Josh Teater, and Tyrone Van Aswegen

Favorite Pivot

None

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Ryan Palmer

2) Joel Dahmen

3) Cameron Tringale

4) Vaughn Taylor

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 15% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Brian Harman (OH GOD)
  2. Vaughn Taylor
  3. Joaquin Niemann
  4. Cameron Tringale
  5. Kevin Tway
  6. Troy Merritt
  7. Jason Dufner
  8. Zack Sucher
  9. Collin Morikawa
  10. Matthew Wolff
  11. Viktor Hovland
  12. Kyle Stanley
  13. Joel Dahmen
  14. Ryan Palmer
  15. Sungjae Im

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Ryan Palmer: 50/1

Kevin Tway: 66/1

Cameron Tringale: 80/1

Peter Uihlein Top 10: 12/1

Sebastian Munoz Top 10: 12/1

Matt Every Top 20: 5/1

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Hovland, Im, Niemann, ZJ, Howell, Morikawa

Possible Pivots:

Ryan Palmer

Joel Dahmen

Jhonattan Vegas

Troy Merritt

Kevin Tway

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