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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 Travelers Championship DraftKings/Bets/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Well the U.S. Open has come and gone, and it played out exactly how I didn’t think it would… funny how that happens. I’m not going to harp on the USGA because they didn’t set it up “easy” by any means, there just wasn’t any wind and I think if there was we would have seen a winning score around -3 to -5. So it goes and congrats to Gary Woodland, who is truly one of the better humans on TOUR. If you haven’t seen it yet, go check out his spot with Amy Bockerstette, a girl with Down Syndrome and a competitor in the special Olympics, from the Waste Management where he plays the iconic 16th hole with her. It is a definite tear jerker and to see him surprise her on set of the TODAY show on the Monday after his victory shows his tremendous compassion and a guy that I think everyone can root for throughout the rest of his career. Here is the link to Gary playing with Amy (Gary Woodland and Amy Bockerstette). A great tournament can’t be wrapped up; however, without mentioning Brooks Koepka YET AGAIN, almost taking this thing down. When I saw him birdie the first 4 of 5 holes on Sunday I couldn’t believe he was going to win another one. His last 6 majors’ performances are astounding, and I don’t even know what to say about it at this point. He burned me AGAIN, he’ll probably burn me AGAIN, and that’s all there is to it. It didn’t matter for me though because my week was torched as soon as JT missed the cut… sigh. Onto a surprisingly stacked field at the Travelers…

Course: TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, CT

Fast Facts

  • Par 70, 6,841 yards
  • Pete Dye Design (redesign)
  • Greens: Bentgrass/Poa around 12-12.5 on the stimp
  • Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft. (smaller than average for the TOUR)
  • Short course but rough is penal; fairway hit percent is about 67% (TOUR AVG = 61%)
  • Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF
  • Average winning score around -14 to -15
  • Average Cut Line of E to +1
  • 8 Par 4s from 400-450
  • 2nd shot course with wedges being KEY
  • Potential Corollary Courses: Copperhead (Valspar), Riviera (Genesis), Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage), TPC Sawgrass (PLAYERS)
  • Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Kevin Streelman (former winner), Russell Knox (former winner), Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Moore, Francesco Molinari

 

Course and Weather Notes: I don’t think we’ve seen significant weather advantages in several weeks but I think this is a week to monitor. There is rain expected Tuesday-Friday and with some guys benefiting from even softer conditions and potential lift/clean/place, I would wait to build lineups till Wednesday at the earliest to see if there is a wave advantage. If guys can hit the fairways here, they should have 8-10 wedges into greens per day and it should be a birdie fest so target the fairway finders, wedge studs, and maybe guys who put slightly better on POA/Bent than other surfaces. Lastly, I will definitely take a look at who performs well on Pete Dye tracks (via Fantasy National), as his course type is very particular, and some guys love it, while some don’t.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175)
  • Par 4 BoB (emphasis on 400-450)
  • Opportunities Gained
  • SG: Par 5s
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Poa/Bent mix and inside 10 feet)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($9,800) Projected Ownership: 15%; I preach it week in and week out… can’t let recency bias affect your decisions in DFS no matter how much it costs you… JT was once again let down by his putter last week, losing almost -3 SG: P; however, his irons remained solid as he ranks Top 20 in the field in SG: BS, SG: APP, and Par 4 BoB while ranking 6th in Opportunities Gained and 6th in SG: Par 5s… I’ll lock and load him this week with hopes he brings the putter to play

2) Marc Leishman ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 11%; Going right back to Leishman who didn’t finish “poorly” at the US Open (T35) but after a solid start through his first 2 rounds, he kind of just stalled; still gained in all SG parts of the game but didn’t do anything elite; I think he sets up perfectly for this course as he is an accurate fairway finder who can excel with his wedges; a former winner here, he missed the cut last year but before had made 7 straight cuts with that win and 3 top 17 finishes or better… I like him to contend this week as he has the ability to shoot the low 61 or 62 to get out to a fast start

Fades

1) Jason Day ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 14%; Day is obviously a fantastic putter so that will continue to carry him to made cuts/decent finishes but looking at his irons/rest of his game it’s subpar: 49th in SG: BS, 90th in the SG: APP ranges this week, 54th in Opportunities Gained, and 42nd in SG: Par 5s. If Day doesn’t make just about everything, as he does most week, I don’t see him even close to paying off value at this price and he’s an easy fade for me

2) Tony Finau ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 12%; Aside from his high finish at the Masters and his 2nd place at the Charles Schwab (where he actually GAINED 5 strokes putting), Finau hasn’t looked very good this season; he ranks 65th in key approach ranges this week, 96th in Opportunities Gained, 102nd in SG: Putting, and 95th in Par 4 BoB; he’s made his last 3 cuts here but that’s not enough for me with many better options above and below him

Favorite Pivot

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 15%; His stats still don’t jump off the page like they did last summer when he was crushing tournaments and winning at a decent clip but he has slowly but surely started looking better and better… he finished 35th at the U.S. where he gained 4.4 strokes on approaches (16th best in the field) but just couldn’t chip and lost almost 5 strokes ARG; he’s been a little bit up and down but he’s on his best putting surface, has made his last 2 cuts, and finished 9th at TPC Highlands last year; if he can remain under 12% ownership I’ll definitely be well overweight as we know how good Bryson’s long term talent is…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Kevin Streelman ($8,200) Projected Ownership: 16%; Well it’s 2019 and I think Kevin Streelman is going to be chalk… however, that’s chalk I’m definitely eating; Streelman ranks 2nd in my overall model as he’s a former winner here, is having a career year with 3 Top 6 finishes in his last 5 starts, and has been a GIR machine; he ranks 5th in SG: BS, 15th in the APP ranges, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 29th in SG: Par 5s, and 17th in Par 4 BoB; anytime this season where Streelman has putted average or better he’s finishing in the Top 10 so I think he’s an elite GPP and cash game play this week

2) Bud Cauley ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 6%; Ever since coming back from his injury, Cauley has creeped back up to solid form; sure, he’s missed a few cuts but he also has a 24th place several weeks ago and finished top 10 (T9) at Memorial; he ranks 35th in SG: BS, 28th in the SG: APP Blend, 4th in Opportunities Gained, and 28th in SG: Par 5s; he hasn’t played here in a few years but has made the last 3 cuts when he has… I will definitely take some shots in GPPs and if he stays low owned, we won’t need more than 15% or so

3) Sung Kang ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 5%; I definitely play Sung Kang a lot more than the average DFS player but he has some of the more elite stats week in and week out; he ranks 11th in SG: BS, 9th in SG: Par 5s, 19th in Par 4 BoB, and 32nd in Opportunities Gained; he won a few short weeks ago and is now only $7,300 which I think is quite undervalued; he hasn’t lit this course up but he scores a ton of DK points and has now had a few weeks rest… LOVE him as a solid GPP play this week

Fades

1) Bubba Watson ($8,900) Projected Ownership: 15%; Obviously likes this course and this is a well-known “Bubba Track” but his form, including last week’s putting display, has been pretty bad this year; Bubba has solid ball striking, ranking 14th, but he ranks 76th in the SG: APP Blend, 100th in Opportunities Gained, 90th in SG: Putting, and 74th in Par 4 BoB; he can always turn it on randomly but at this price, he would need to show more than that stats wise; 2 MC and a 63rd in a weak field in his last 3 starts.. no thanks

2) Keegan Bradley ($7,700) Projected Ownership: 12%; To Keegan or not to Keegan? It’s a no this week for me… he should succeed as he hits a ton of fairways and is an all-time elite ball striker and not to mention has made all 8 cuts here; however, he’s already a bad enough putter and this is his worst surface, he hasn’t finished better than T29 in his last 5 tournaments, and he only ranks 89th in Par 4 BoB… full fade for me this week

Favorite Pivot

Sebastian Munoz ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 4%; Definite dart here but Munoz is coming off an 11th place finish 2 weeks ago and has stats to warrant a few GPP darts; 5th in SG: Par 5s, 7th in Par 4 BoB and 38th in the key approach ranges this week; at this ownership, I’m fine owning 10-12% and take away from potential high ownership on Troy Merritt, Mackenzie Hughes, or Nick Watney (whom I all like as well…)

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Charley Hoffman ($8,100), Emiliano Grillo ($7,900), Viktor Hovland ($7,900), Ryan Moore ($7,800), Adam Hadwin ($7,600)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Chris Stroud ($6,400) Projected Ownership: 2%; Well Stroud has been terrible this year, no doubt about that; however, something about this course brings out some form; he MC last year but before had made 9 straight cuts, which included a 2nd, 10th, and 17th; his best stat he has going is his putting splits on this type of surface… this is clearly a punt play at BEST to take in a lineup or two so you can pair together Brooks/Cantlay or Cantlay/Molinari, etc. but I’ll take a shot?

Fades

I probably will not play anyone in the 6k range this week with the exception of a few dart throws on Stroud, Cameron Tringale, maybe Peter Malnati, and maybe Vaughn Taylor

Favorite Pivot

None

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Paul Casey

2) Justin Thomas

3) Kevin Streelman

4) Russell Knox

5) Adam Hadwin

6) Ryan Moore

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Brooks Koepka
  2. Kevin Streelman (!!!)
  3. Patrick Cantlay
  4. Chez Reavie (woof)
  5. Emiliano Grillo
  6. Paul Casey
  7. Jason Day
  8. Sung Kang
  9. Marc Leishman
  10. Troy Merritt (yikes)
  11. T. Pan (GOAT)
  12. Charley Hoffman
  13. Bud Cauley
  14. Justin Thomas
  15. Max Homa (<<< sleeper)

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Emiliano Grillo: 50/1

Marc Leishman: 28/1

C.T. Pan: 100/1

Sebastian Munoz Top 10: 11/1

Sam Burns Top 10: 12/1

Troy Merritt Top 20: 5/1

Random Prop > Mackenzie Hughes Top Canadian: +275

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Casey/Bubba/Cantlay/Bryson/Spieth/Chez/Day

Possible Pivots:

Justin Thomas

Brooks Koepka

C.T. Pan

Tommy Fleetwood

Charley Hoffman

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