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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 US Open DraftKings Picks/Value Bets/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

We’re already to the 3rd major of the year and how lucky that we get to see some West Coast golf at one of the most iconic golf courses in the world. I think some of the casual fans will be shocked to see just how tough this course can get with thick rough, swirling wind coming in from the ocean, and bumpy and firm Poa greens that could easily get baked out over the 4 days. Let’s get into some picks, a recap of the important stats, and anything else we can find to help win the trimmed down Milly Maker tournament this week ($100 entry but only about 33k entries instead of the usual almost 200k).

Course and Weather Notes: I put out an extensive course preview last week for full trends, key stats, course notes, narratives, possible corollary courses, and more! This will continue to be widely talked about throughout the DFS industry but even though as of right now the conditions look rather “calm” and wind isn’t too bad, this can change on a dime and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some mid round carnage as the waves and wind come in from the Pacific. As I wrote in my course preview, there could be guys hitting a flip wedge onto the 7th green only to have guys hitting a hard 7 iron 20 minutes later. The rough is thick, these fairways are THIN, and no longer are there backstops and rough to hang up balls that miss the green close to the ocean… those are going in. I hope we see some tough conditions and a winning score around the even to -3 range.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: T2G/SG: BS
  • All Around Ranking
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 100-125/200+)
  • Driving Blend (Total Driving/SG: OTT/Fairways Gained)
  • Scrambling
  • SG: Putting Blend (emphasis on inside 15 feet)
  • Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Tiger Woods ($10,700) Projected Ownership: 15%; I should probably just have a Tiger section of the article because when am I not going to play him? I like this set up for him beyond the obvious in that he’s won here and shows up for big tournaments… hopefully he takes the driver out of his hand and hits that stinger all week because that’s all he needs; he’s 7th in my key approach distances this week (see above), 4th in GIRs Gained, and 13th in SG: BS; Tiger knows he doesn’t need, nor is he going to get to that insane -12 score this week and I see that as a key advantage… I will be overweight for sure

2) Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 16%; I’ve grown quite tired of having a guy rank #1 in my overall model, fading him to get leverage, and then him burning me; Cantlay is clearly on fire, has played excellent in both majors this year and comes in ranked #1 in T2G, 4th in SG: BS, 5th in my APP blend, 2nd in Bogey/Double Avoidance, 9th in the Putting Blend, and 6th in Scrambling… wow; he’s also coming off a win in a loaded Memorial field and 3 straight Top 10s before that; I didn’t think Cantlay could close before the Memorial, he proved me wrong, and I’ll be starting some teams with him this week… will target 30-35% exposure

3) Justin Thomas ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 13%; Easily the top play on the board me and just a tremendous misprice; JT hits a ton of greens and last week, take out him putting very poorly, and he probably finishes Top 5 after ranking 2nd in T2G beyond Rory; prior to hurting his wrist at Honda, JT was arguably the best iron player in the world and with injury concerns completely gone, I think he not only competes but wins this week; I will certainly have him in my main GPP lineup, possibly cash, and hope to be way overweight the field

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($11,600) Projected Ownership: 16%; By law of averages, I can’t be wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME I FADE BROOKS, so I’ll go back here again; is he a great play? Yes. Is he one of the best in the world? Yes. Only reason I have to fade is at this price tag, he needs to come probably T4 or better, he’s said he doesn’t like California courses, he’s consistently won on longer tracks (shorter course here), and Poa is his worst putting surface… he probably wins by 6 shots now

2) Jordan Spieth ($10,300) Projected Ownership: 15%; Jordan Spieth’s rank in my model for Putting and Scrambling: 4th and 3rd respectively; Spieth’s rank in BS, APP Blend, and Driving Blend: 112th, 146th, and 125th, respectively… do I think his putting is all luck? Absolutely not. I just think he hasn’t been accurate enough with his driver to WIN here which at this price, he needs to finish highly; if he burns me, I’m ok with that but I like plays around him more

Favorite Pivot

Francesco Molinari ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 8%; People just don’t play him, me included, but what a perfect course set up… squeezed in between Day, Hideki, Fleetwood, JT, etc. I don’t see much ownership at all for a guy who hits a ton of fairways, has competed very highly in the last few majors, and can scramble very well… if he brings his putter, I can definitely see a top 10 and you don’t need much at all to be overweight the field

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800) Projected Ownership: 18%; Love him this week, as I do many weeks, and he’ll most likely be a cash game lock for me; 3rd in the field in my favorite APP distances, 10th in SG: BS, 13th in Scrambling, and 19th in the Driving Blend; also, Hideki has actually GAINED strokes putting in his last 3 tournaments… oh yes. Is it finally his time? Maybe but he’s a core play in all formats

2) Adam Scott ($8,600) Projected Ownership: 18%; Sure to be chalk but for good reason: Scott has continued his insane iron play and ranks 6th in SG: BS, 4th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, 7th in Scrambling, 9th in GIRs Gained, and 16th in key APP ranges; now, if I see he’s using a short putter, he’s a full fade, but he’s racked up Top 10s in his last 2 tournaments, and has GAINED strokes with his putter 9 tournaments in a row… what is going on? Core play in all formats.

3) Billy Horschel ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 7%; Not a guy you think of to be playing “great” in his last few but Horschel has quietly had a very solid last several tournaments: rattled off 5 straight made cuts, a very quiet Top 10 at Memorial, and before that a 19th at Charles Schwab and 23rd at the PGA Championship; has gained strokes on approaches in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and T2G and OTT in his last 5 straight; per my stats model, he ranks 16th in SG: BS, 11th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, 30th in Scrambling, 16th in GIRs Gained, and 10th in the Driving Blend; love him as a core GPP play

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($8,400) Projected Ownership: 10%; Not sure what’s been going on with Finau this year, but besides the Masters, he hasn’t been good; he ranks 30th in SG: BS, 65th in the APP Blend, 136th in Scrambling, 55th in GIRs Gained, and 101st in the Driving Blend… no thanks for me

2) Phil Mickelson ($8,200) Projected Ownership: 10%; I like the narrative of him winning the grand slam finally on both his birthday and Father’s Day but Phil’s stats are terrible, he misses way too many fairways, and this course will play nothing like it did back in February; full fade

Favorite Pivot

Marc Leishman ($7,800) Projected Ownership: 7%; I think there are a ton of good pivots/leverage options, and I’ll list others below, but I think Leishman is a fantastic pivot off some chalk around him this week; Leishman has gained strokes on approaches in every tournament this year and is coming off a very solid T5 at the Memorial; he ranks 21st in the key approach distances, 14th in Scrambling and although he’s low ranked in my Driving Blend, if he keeps the driver away, I think he’s the type of consistent golfer we’re looking for… at this price, he’s a great GPP play that I’ll have around 20-25%

Other Pivots I Like: Kevin Na ($7,700), Emiliano Grillo ($7,400), Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,300), Tyrrell Hatton ($7,200), C.T. Pan ($7,100), Jimmy Walker ($7,000), Lucas Glover ($7,000)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Jason Dufner ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 5%; Duf Daddy has really turned things around this year; he ranks 19th in SG: BS in this field along with 18th in the key approach distances, 11th in GIRs Gained, and 4th in the Driving Blend; his only woes are how bad of a putter he is but at this price, and for a former major winner I might add, we are looking at a hopeful made cut and some upside; I like his odds for that and I’ll play him at around 10-15% in GPPs and hope to be well overweight

2) Brian Stuard ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 3%; Another total dart play here but no one will own him (and why would they, it’s Brian Stuard), but he does rank 10th in the key approach ranges, 20th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, 22nd in Scrambling, and 40th in the Driving Blend… with such little options down here this week, I’ll take 5-7% maybe as a flier and hope for elite iron play from him

Fades

I will be fading all players under $6,600 this week… most of them are qualifiers and while a few may make the cut, trying to play that guessing game seems like a -EV move… maybe a punt on Carlos Ortiz at $6,100??

Favorite Pivot

None

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Justin Thomas

2) Hideki Matsuyama

3) Adam Scott

4) Paul Casey

5) Matt Kuchar

6) Webb Simpson

7) Henrik Stenson

8) Brandt Snedeker

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 5% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Patrick Cantlay
  2. Dustin Johnson
  3. Brooks Koepka
  4. Rory McIlroy
  5. Matt Kuchar
  6. Tiger Woods
  7. Paul Casey
  8. Adam Scott
  9. Webb Simpson
  10. Xander Schauffele
  11. Rickie Fowler
  12. Hideki Matsuyama
  13. Rory Sabbatini
  14. Kevin Na
  15. Billy Horschel
  16. Justin Rose
  17. Shane Lowry
  18. Jon Rahm
  19. Jason Day
  20. Gary Woodland

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Justin Thomas: 30/1 (already bet)

Marc Leishman: 80/1 (already bet)

Billy Horschel: 150/1

Billy Horschel Top 10: 10/1

Viktor Hovland Top 20: 9/1

Jimmy Walker Top 20: 5/1

Phil Mickelson to MISS the cut: +165

Jon Rahm to MISS the cut: +275

Sergio Garcia to MISS the cut: +150

Top South African: Erik Van Rooyen +375

Top Spanish Player: Rafa Cabrera Bello +450

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – DJ/Tiger/Brooks/Spieth/Phil/Rory/Xander/Scott/Snedeker

Possible Pivots:

Webb

Fleetwood

Casey

Woodland

Leishman

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