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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 3M Open DraftKings/SuperDraft Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: TPC Twin Cities

Fast Facts

  • Par 71 approx. 7450 yards
  • Bentgrass Greens (12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (larger)
  • Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
  • Second year on TOUR
  • Very high GIR% rate (almost 75% compared to TOUR average 63%
  • Water on 14 holes (27 hazards total); 72 total bunkers
  • 2019 Cut: -3
  • 2019 Winning Score: -21
  • Corollary Courses: TPC Boston, Bay Hill, PGA West
  • Course Fit Targets: Dustin Johnson, Emiliano Grillo, Paul Casey, Keith Mitchell, Matthew Wolff (2019 winner), Troy Merritt, Lucas Glover, Hudson Swafford, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 8-6; DK 5-9

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: Well we’ve finally hit cash 2 weeks in a row thanks to the inclusion of Jon Rahm who I said last week in my article, on the podcast, and in final thoughts how under priced he was and how he was too good to have not won recently… he looked awesome and was a key component in cash along with Cantlay and Tiger who despite not finishing that great, scored fine relative to the field. Casey was the lone MC in cash who burned sooooo many people after taking an 8 on a par 3 in which he I believe shanked it out of bunker into the water, ended up fighting back, and then bogeyed the last to miss the cut by one… classic Paul Casey. Last week was an interesting one in that I knew the field was stacked and that the cut% would be low so I kind of punted down low with Norlander in order to stack the rest of the lineup, which worked out as I got 5/6 through. Of note, I focus almost solely on DraftKings but my FanDuel cash has gone 5/6 since the restart and makes me wonder if I should start playing more heavily over there… haha yeah right.

GPP: Despite all the carnage, I actually had 2 of my main 3 GPP teams set up for success later on Friday and all I needed was Casey to par the last (didn’t) and Berger to go +2 over or better in his last 2 holes… welp, Berger bogeyed #8 (his 17th of the day) and then proceeded to DOUBLE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRWAY ON #9 to miss the cut on the number and torch an unreal team. Rahm/English/Steele/Reavie/Reed and Mr. Berger… that stung. I can’t stay mad at him though because he won me an outright and OAD cash the first week back but man… that was tilting. Per usual since the restart, my main GPP team was my worst performer as I had Rahm but surrounded him with DJ who shot some smooth back to back 80s, Tiger who never really got it going, and then Redman who despite continuing his ball striking prowess lost over 6 strokes putting in 2 days… a true feat. Onto the 3M Open and by far the weakest field we’ve had in months but still a Milly Maker contest to burn money!

Course and Weather Notes: The debut of TPC Twin Cities was last year and saw Matthew Wolff eagle the last hole to win at -21 (badass) and it proved to be a birdie fest that rewarded strong Par 5 scorers, strong approach, strong Off The Tee game, and bentgrass putters who catch a hot one. I will put a decent amount of emphasis on APP from all rangers, Ball Striking, SG: Putting on bent and will definitely look a lot into the FantasyNational stat Opportunities Gained, as it measures approaches to 15 or less which will be key on these much bigger greens (6500 sq. ft. on average). Interestingly enough, things can always change (like last week) but there could be a wave advantage with some decent 15-20 MPH winds expected on Friday and Saturday so make sure to wait to make lineups and check the most recent weather on Windfinder.com on Wednesday afternoon/night.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP
  • SG: OTT
  • BoB/Eagles Gained
  • Opportunities Gained
  • SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Paul Casey ($10,100) Projected Ownership: 23%

Key Stats: 16th SG: BS/4th SG: APP/14th SG: OTT/38th BoB/38th Opps. Gained/40th SG: Putting

Form: MC/32nd

History: None

Notes: It’s a shame that the industry is too sharp these days because a few years ago, people would see Casey’s score/missed cut and immediately fade without realizing it was all on one hole… Casey has gained on APP in his 2 tournaments back, gained OTT in both tournaments, and is on the only putting surface that he historically gains strokes… long term form is great and he’s great in all formats

2) Harris English ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 9th SG: BS/20th SG: APP/29th SG: OTT/74th BoB/27th Opps. Gained/9th SG: Putting

Form: 13th/17th/MC

History: MC

Notes: After a rusty week at the Charles Schwab, English bounced back and gained 4.1 T2G, 3.8 on APP and finished T17 at RBC before taking a few weeks off; then, he grinded to a T13 last week, gaining 3.7 on APP, 6 T2G, and continued to putt well… he’s going to end up very popular, but I think he’s one of the best values in this weak field, has winning upside, and when looking at corollary course, particularly Bay Hill, he finished T9 there back in March… like him in all formats

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($10,900) Projected Ownership: 25%

Key Stats: 5th SG: BS/24th SG: APP/9th SG: OTT/1st BoB/58th Opps. Gained/46th SG: Putting

Form: 8th/53rd/MC/33rd/23rd

History: 23rd

Notes: Everyone knows I rarely play Finau and I totally get why he’ll be popular and people will play him, but I will be fading as I expect him to be the highest owned in the slate and after receiving almost a 3k DK price bump from last week, he’s now in the range where his normal T10-T20 finish won’t pay off value and he needs a T5 or better… and well, he’s a coward and doesn’t win so fade for me

2) Matthew Wolff ($9,700) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 10th SG: BS/56th SG: APP/3rd SG: OTT/9th BoB/7th Opps. Gained/96th SG: Putting

Form: 22nd/MC/2nd/MC/MC/54th

History: 1st

Notes: I really like Wolff and won’t root against him despite the fade, but I think he’s going to garner more ownership than we think since he won the inaugural event and because people saw him storm the leaderboard 3 weeks ago in a similarly weak field in Detroit… Wolff has all the tools to compete but he gets VERY hot and VERY cold/streaky so at this price, I want more consistency… hesitant fade

Favorite Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($11,500) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 6th SG: BS/17th SG: APP/8th SG: OTT/3rd BoB/6th Opps. Gained/144th SG: Putting

Form: MC/1st/17th/MC

History: None

Notes: Well then, let’s run it back with a DJ pivot again because last week could not have gone much worse… at an extreme price tag this week, I think people will opt for Finau/Fleetwood/Casey and be on their way so they don’t have to punt at 6k… DJ can easily storm this field and while last week shouldn’t be ignored, we know how strong he is long term and I think he’ll be sub 15% in most contests…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Sam Burns ($8,500) Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 17th SG: BS/64th SG: APP/20th SG: OTT/10th BoB/2nd Opps. Gained/41st SG: Putting

Form: 17th/30th/24th/MC

History: 7th

Notes: Elite birdie maker, ranks 2nd in Opps. Gained/3 straight Top 30s or better, and has gained OTT in every tourney in 2020 except 2 makes me love Burns this week and I think the industry does too… he’s been due for a win and I’m hoping he can catch a hot putter and continue his elite iron play; despite Bermuda being his best surface by far, Burns still historically gains on Bent as well and I think he should be one of the favorites to win this tourney

2) Scott Stallings ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 11th SG: BS/11th SG: APP/39th SG: OTT/6th BoB/18th Opps. Gained/111th SG: Putting

Form: 58th/39th/6th/48th

History: MC

Notes: Stallings is never someone people think about because he’s not that exciting, but his stats the last few weeks have been awesome, he’s gained OTT and T2G in 3 straight events, and I think for this caliber of field he’s much too cheap… if he can just putt average, I think his ARG game struggles will be mitigated and he has great T10 or better upside

3) Sam Ryder ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 13th SG: BS/26th SG: APP/22nd SG: OTT/25th BoB/40th Opps. Gained/10th SG: Putting

Form: 7th/MC/MC/41st/MC

History: 34th

Notes: I’ve liked Ryder since he started on the TOUR back in the 2018 season as he’s an elite birdie maker more so than people realize… he quietly finished T7 at Workday 2 weeks ago, has gained on APP in his last 2 events, and has a very complete game for someone who’s only 7300 in this field… he didn’t light this course up last year but he’s at least played it… improve on the Par 5s and he has huge upside
Fades

1) Luke List ($8,400) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 7th SG: BS/59th SG: APP/2nd SG: OTT/75th BoB/4th Opps. Gained/114th SG: Putting

Form: 10th/MC/21st/MC/MC

History: MC

Notes: List is getting some love this week as he won on the Korn Ferry a few weeks ago and then grinded out a T10 this past week at the Memorial… both are impressive, and I get these he crushes the ball and scores well on Par 5s but this seems like a steep price for a guy who just cannot putt and has not been as elite with his irons this year as he usually is…

2) Will Gordon ($7,700) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 39th SG: BS/41st SG: APP/41st SG: OTT/8th BoB/45th Opps. Gained/99th SG: Putting

Form: MC/3rd

History: None

Notes: I’m not sure why Will Gordon is becoming a popular 7k play again… he had that spectacular run at the Travelers but I think people are getting caught up in stat ranks that are very limited and we don’t exactly know what he’s made of yet… I wouldn’t mind a flier if he was cheap and 5% owned or something but 12-15%? No thanks…

Favorite Pivot

1) Talor Gooch ($7,100) Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 14th SG: BS/15th SG: APP/17th SG: OTT/44th BoB/23rd Opps. Gained/36th SG: Putting

Form: MC/17th/WD/MC/MC/43rd

History: 73rd

Notes: Gooch’s form since the restart hasn’t been much to write home about and his APP game hasn’t been great either, gaining 6.2 at Workday but losing the other 4 tournaments; however, he has gained SG: OTT in his last 3, is a strong bentgrass putter, and if the conditions get windy, he’s actually pretty solid in that category too… I don’t expect over 7% and think he’s a great GPP flier play

OTHERS I LIKE: Doc Redman/Henrik Norlander/Max Homa/Charley Hoffman/Richy Werenski
GPP ONLY/FLIERS: Sepp Straka/Carlos Ortiz/Ryan Armour/Chase Seiffert

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Keith Mitchell ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: His recent stats are straight garbage… however, I like him as a flier as he gained 2.5 on APP at the Memorial, finished T22, and at Bay Hill (corollary) in March, he finished T5… elite Par 5 scorer

2) Brice Garnett ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: My favorite GPP play besides Sam Ryder this week… ranks 22nd in SG: BS, 14th in SG: APP, 27th in SG: OTT and although his finishes are blah, he did finish T23 at this tournament last year

3) Adam Schenk ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Ranks 21st in SG: BS, 1st in SG: OTT, and although his recent finishes are lackluster, he’s made his last 2 cuts, gained on APP in both and is sub 7k… worth some exposure in GPPs for sure

4) Vaughn Taylor ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: I’m always a sucker for Vaughn but I think he has the highest T20 upside of anyone in the 6k range, ranks 12th in Opps. Gained/29th in SG: Putting, and 43rd in SG: APP… despite being a very shorter hitter, Vaughn is still 62nd in SG: OTT, and can score on Par 5s…

5) Cameron Davis ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Ranks Top 20 in the field in SG: Par 5s, is on the only putting surface that he gains strokes and ranks 24th in Opps. Gained/7th in BoB, and 34th in SG: OTT… just find the putter this week dude

Cash Game Options

1) Paul Casey

2) Lucas Glover

3) Harris English

4) Sam Burns

5) Max Homa

6) Richy Werenski

7) Sam Ryder

8) Vaughn Taylor

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 10% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

  1. Tony Finau
  2. Dustin Johnson
  3. Lucas Glover
  4. Matthew Wolff
  5. Brooks Koepka
  6. Doc Redman
  7. Bubba Watson
  8. Harris English
  9. Henrik Norlander
  10. Will Gordon
  11. Sam Burns
  12. Sam Ryder
  13. Sepp Straka
  14. Russell Henley
  15. Luke List
  16. Scott Stallings
  17. Patrick Rodgers
  18. Erik Van Rooyen
  19. Chase Seiffert
  20. Jhonattan Vegas

SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts

Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as Dj/Fleetwood/Brooks, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys. My strategy for this week is to build a few rosters that have the studs that I feel confident will make the cut and can rack up birdies en route to hopefully a T10 or better and mix in 1-2 guys with high risk/high reward birdie upside to differentiate myself. Below is my table of 15 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays to see my SD core for the week!

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Tony Finau

Matthew Wolff

Lucas Glover

Paul Casey

Tommy Fleetwood

OAD Pivots

Russell Henley

Doc Redman

Max Homa

Sam Burns

Henrik Norlander

Charley Hoffman

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