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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Colonial Country Club

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7200 yards
• Fast Bent Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALLER than TOUR average)
• Driving Accuracy is key; only about 55% of fairways are hit
• Field: 148 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Average cut around +2
• Average winning score around -12
• Corollary Courses (Pete Dye tracks): Harbour Town GL, TPC Potomac, TPC Sawgrass, Waielae CC
• Course Fit Targets: Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Russell Knox, Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia, Keegan Bradley, Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 4-4; DK 2-6

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: Recap returns next week

GPP: Recap returns next week

 

Course and Weather Notes: WE. ARE. BACK. Wow it has felt like forever since I’ve gotten to write about golf, talk on a pod, tilt my guys missing 3 foot putts, and sweating the cut on a fine Friday afternoon. This week golf returns with a BANG to say the least with DK putting up a millionaire maker in what I presume will be the most unpredictable event we have seen in many, many years. Before we get into the course I wanted to outline a few things that most will see around the DFS industry as well as a couple of my thoughts about the week ahead and the ensuing volatility. There is obviously no, at least statistical, current form stats as most haven’t played competitively since the Players in early March so it is not something that I, or really anyone, should weight for the week. However, what I will say, is that I think this is the best opportunity to gain leverage in GPPs as I think there will certainly be some overreaction as to who is “in form” and who should have expected rust. This field is wide open for the most part, but I keep seeing things from numerous sources saying we have no idea what they’ll do, etc, etc, etc but I don’t think we’re dealing with a situation where Justin Rose is showing up to the course ball in hand, tee in hand, hungover, and hasn’t picked up a club in 3 months. There will obviously be rust from not playing competitively and no fans or grandstands will be odd, but I would still be willing to bet with some confidence that a lot of the superstars should look relatively fine over the 4 days even if they look a little off on day 1. While I think course history is important to look at, I think there’s a chance that people will weigh it TOO heavily when many of these guys haven’t played here and/or are completely different players than a year or two ago. Tread a little lightly, don’t blow your entire bankroll, and embrace the volatility!

Colonial is a Par 70, 7200 yard track that only has 2 par 5s of which one is reachable in 2 (#1). The fairways are tough to hit, the greens are tough to hit, and with it being a less than driver course, many of the studs have their ultimate weapon, their driver, taken away. This is all about keeping it in the fairway, hitting greens, and is the reason I will weigh long term basic stats like GIRs, Opps. Gained, Fairways Gained, and throw in a little bentgrass putting stats.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150+ yards)
• Fairways Gained
• BoB Gained
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 3^rd SG: BS/4^th SG: APP/127^th Fways Gained/2^nd BoB Gained/52^nd GIRs/37^th SG: P

Form: Been hanging out with Rickie probably slamming Coors Lights

History: None

Notes: I think ownership above 10k should be pretty spread out but I think JT will be the lower owned than Rahm/Rory for sure… best iron player in the world and I don’t feel like people are mentioning him

2) Rickie Fowler ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 68^th SG: BS/73^rd SG: APP/79^th Fways Gained/41^st BoB Gained/43^rd GIRs/13^th SG: P

Form: Chilling with the boys probably shooting his 46^th commercial of the year

History: MC/14^th/MC/54^th/5^th/16^th/38^th

Notes: Not worried about his stats and maybe I’m following a narrative but watching him in the match play a few weeks ago he looked VERY sharp and probably had 7+ birdies on his own ball… he’s played here a lot and I think could end his long win drought this week

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 32^nd SG: BS/52^nd SG: APP/135^th Fways Gained/31^st BoB Gained/16^th GIRs/71^st SG: P

Form: Probably hasn’t been practicing (or so he’ll tell you)

History: 2^nd

Notes: Played well here 2 years ago but I almost never play him; he looked very injured still before COVID so maybe he got right but I don’t really have interest despite the price; would rather pivot

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: BS/10^th SG: APP/102^nd Fways Gained/57^th BoB Gained/3^rd GIRs/65^th SG: P

Form: Probably winning millions at poker since he’s incredibly lucky

History: MC/MC/48^th

Notes: Literally always burns me but hasn’t played that great here and ALWAYS comes in high owned no matter what… would rather eat the chalk elsewhere and hope the Xander doesn’t luck box a few eagles this week

Favorite Pivot

1) Justin Rose ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 86^th SG: BS/43^rd SG: APP/100^th Fways Gained/40^th BoB Gained/78^th GIRs/17^th SG: P

Form: Recording a Morgan Stanley commercial

History: 58^th/1^st/71^st

Notes: I really thought I could maybe get Rose at <10% ownership but it seems like people are thinking the way I am… he has new irons after dropping those Honma ones he was playing where he looked terrible; I’m betting on long term form here and he’s still a world class player, ranked 14^th in the world and only 9k… should be WAY less owned than Morikawa above him too

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Gary Woodland ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 7^th SG: BS/6^th SG: APP/92^nd Fways Gained/18^th BoB Gained/15^th GIRs/103^rd SG: P

Form: Being nice guy Gary and probably doing something for charity

History: 73^rd

Notes: I love playing Woodland at less than driver courses because he has the ability to hit that beautiful stinger off the tee every hole and going into the break he looked VERY strong and focused in my eyes… one of my favorite mid-range plays of the week

2) Daniel Berger ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 25^th SG: BS/51^st SG: APP/32^nd Fways Gained/9^th BoB Gained/41^st GIRs/88^th SG: P

Form: Trolling around on his boat doing some fishing in Florida with a fat dip in

History: 53^rd/MC

Notes: I expect him to ultimately be one of the chalkier options but I think he’s finally past his injury as he looked great before COVID hit and I think he’s going to return to the winner’s circle soon… if he can putt halfway decent and still has his irons locked in he has Top 5 upside

3) Brian Harman ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 75^th SG: BS/98^th SG: APP/31^st Fways Gained/42^nd BoB Gained/109^th GIRs/26^th SG: P

Form: Hopefully figuring out how to hit his driver out of his own shadow

History: 31^st/14^th/7^th/25^th/10^th/30^th/MC

Notes: Definitely not a fan of this guy but can’t have biases in DFS… has played here a lot with 3 Top 25s to his name and on a course where distance doesn’t matter, he sets up great; all a narrative, but I have read that he’s been grinding recently trying to figure out these bent greens… who knows
Fades

1) Tony Finau ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 12^th SG: BS/8^th SG: APP/108^th Fways Gained/36^th BoB Gained/6^th GIRs/121^st in SG: P

Form: Sitting at home stone cold sober figuring out how to finish Top 10 with no wins in all the majors

History: 2^nd/29^th/34^th/19^th

Notes: I never really play Finau as he’s always high owned but on a less than driver course I think that takes away one of his bigger strengths; further, his stats rate out well and I get the play, but I can’t play everyone and would rather each chalk with guys who are better putters than Finau

2) Kevin Na ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 114^th SG: BS/46^th SG: APP/83^rd Fways Gained/69^th BoB Gained/115^th GIRs/6^th SG: P

Form: Lobbying to get the PGA TOUR to increase the amount of time he gets between shots

History: 1^st/4^th/42^nd/10^th/MC/13^th/40^th/22^nd

Notes: Clearly Na likes this course and is normally a great GPP guy who’s under 5% owned but with so many casuals entering the milly maker, I think so many will see his last 2 finishes here (1^st/4^th) and just plug him in, which leads to decent chalk in the lower 7k range… easy fade for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Jason Day ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 69^th SG: BS/114^th SG: APP/113^th Fways Gained/39^th BoB Gained/40^th GIRs/46^th SG: P

Form: Getting his 78^th back procedure

History: 31^st/50^th

Notes: Boy now those are some stats… I think Day is the ultimate leverage play of the tournament; strong WD risk? Oh yeah; is he healthy? No idea; however, he has had extended rest, which he normally takes anyway and if he isn’t healthy now then will he ever be? When he gets hot on the greens he can go nuclear so if he stays under 10% I think he’s a tremendous GPP play

OTHERS I LIKE: Kevin Kisner/Harris English/Joel Dahmen/Ryan Palmer in ALL formats
GPP ONLY/FLIERS: Ian Poulter/Rory Sabbatini/Corey Conners/Sebastian Munoz/Joaquin Niemann

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Kevin Streelman ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: I play him every week but he’s very consistent and ranks 42^nd in Fways Gained/20^th in BoB Gained/33^rd in GIRs and if he can putt average or better he has Top 15 upside

2) Sung Kang ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Totally boom or bust; ranks 11^th in BoB Gained/35^th in SG: BS/37^th in GIRs but can also start his front nine with a 40 and miss the cut by 10 shots… if he makes the cut, literally no one will own him

3) Jimmy Walker ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: With his public health issues I don’t think anyone plays him… which I understand but before COVID he was playing well; he ranks 25^th in SG: APP, 30^th in SG: P, and has finished top 20 here the last 2 years with a 10^th 5 years ago

4) Carlos Ortiz ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: At this price, if he makes the cut, he’s hit value and gives the rest of your roster so much talent; 48^th in SG: APP, 48^th in BoB Gained, 44^th in GIRs and only 6600… worth a couple shares I think

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson

2) Sungjae Im

3) Collin Morikawa

4) Gary Woodland

5) Matt Kuchar

6) Daniel Berger

7) Kevin Kisner

8) Harris English

9) Billy Horschel

10) Ryan Palmer

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 50% Key Stats, 0% Recent Form, 20% Course History, 20% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Jon Rahm
2. Webb Simpson
3. Tony Finau
4. Bryson Dechambeau
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Marc Leishman
7. Sungjae Im
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Jim Furyk
10. Justin Thomas
11. Gary Woodland
12. Collin Morikawa
13. Joaquin Niemann
14. Brooks Koepka
15. Viktor Hovland
16. Corey Conners
17. Billy Horschel
18. Patrick Reed
19. Tom Hoge
20. Ryan Palmer

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Webb Simpson

Jordan Spieth

Kevin Na

Tony Finau

Kevin Kisner

OAD Pivots

Gary Woodland

Billy Horschel

Justin Rose

Abraham Ancer

Jason Day

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