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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 Memorial DraftKings and SuperDraft Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

Sign up for the BEST STATS DATABASE for DFS Golf at fantasynational.com/dfskarma and sign up for CORE plays below from DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft along with props from MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks!

Course: Muirfield Village

Fast Facts

  • Par 72 approx. 7450 yards
  • Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)
  • Field: 133 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
  • Average Cut: +2
  • Average Winning Score: -14
  • Corollary Courses: Augusta National, Bay Hill, Firestone, PGA National
  • Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Paul Casey, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 7-6; DK 4-9

GPP Results – See table below

 

Cash: A couple weeks ago I mentioned how I had a 3/6 in cash going into the weekend, basically dead, and then proceeded to have just about everything go right that needed to as Berger won and I believe my other 2 guys finished somewhere inside the Top 10. This week, karma hit me nicely as the complete opposite happened as I had a gross 4/6 but had nearly all my 4 guys fall back, with the exception of Woodland, on the weekend. Hideki, per usual, had no putter all weekend, Kuchar couldn’t stop leaving himself 15-foot par putts, and Hadwin had a brutal Saturday that saw him lose any drive and have a middling T35 finish. The biggest shock of the week was the popular play in both tournaments/cash in which Joel Dahmen shot +7 on Thursday to take himself out of it and polished it off on Friday with another several over. I ended up on Morikawa in tournaments but in hindsight, this is probably the 3rd week out of 5 that fading Hovland has 100% cost me as putting him or Morikawa in would have easily cashed in double ups… I need to work on my roster construction because the rest of the field is eating heavy chalk so if you can’t beat em join em…

GPP: Going into Friday I needed good rounds from Homa and Rose to somehow get 2 of my 3 GPP lineups to a 6/6 which I feel like with the new cut rules and the volatility of golf is so rare these days… but alas, Homa missed the cut by 1 and Rose imploded to something like a +10 over 2 days. My main core lineup (provided on DFSKarma.com) was pretty solid as Horschel shot up the leaderboard on Sunday to finish T10, Morikawa ended up winning, and Woodland caught a very hot putter on both Saturday/Sunday to finish up in the Top 5. Winnings could have been so much even with a 5/6 if Im had really done anything and had Kuchar struck his irons at all over his last 3 days he could have maybe made a run into the Top 15. Overall, what an incredible tournament and that last round, especially the back nine for the last group was incredible… the future of golf is very, very bright. Onto the 2nd week of Muirfield and the most stacked field in terms of “Strength of Field” maybe ever…

 

 

 

 

 

 

Course and Weather Notes: Well let’s run it back and man I hope we get something similar to last week’s final round (without the continued horrific coverage by the PGA TOUR and Golf Channel/CBS) because that was epic. You’ll hear it everywhere but the rough has been growing since last week and should play around 5 inches thick (yikes) and the greens will be running around 14 on the stimp so I don’t expect the course to be torn up like last week or at least not as much. Jon Rahm had a quote on Monday saying he thinks this is going to play somewhat similar to a US Open which was interesting to hear in that he is implying the importance of saving par and not making doubles/triples rather than it being a birdie fest… I’m looking at similar stats to last week with maybe a little bit more emphasis on Opps. Gained and Scrambling and possibly slightly less on BoB but nothing major.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150+ yards)
  • BoB Gained
  • Scrambling
  • Opportunities Gained
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 Yards

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 15th SG: BS/27th SG: APP/6th BoB/21st Scrambling/41st Opps. Gained/75th Par 4s 450-500

Form: 7th/11th

History: 1st/4th/35th

Notes: Not sure why Cantlay is under 10k this week as the defending champion of last year as well as 2 straight T11 finishes but it is what it is and I will gladly eat the chalk for someone who clearly likes this course and flashed some SERIOUS form on Sunday as he skyrocketed up the leaderboard with I believe 8 birdies, an eagle, and a few bogeys… will be popular for good reason and I like in all formats

2) Jon Rahm ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 28th SG: BS/72nd SG: APP/21st BoB/28th Scrambling/31st Opps. Gained/105th Par 4s 450-500

Form: 27th/37th/33rd/MC

History: MC

Notes: It seemingly took Rahm till literally the last second, but he finally flashed what he’s capable of this past Sunday as he fired a 64 on Sunday to go from dead last to a T27 finish and for the tournament gained 4 strokes on APP, 5.1 T2G and had very middling ARG and putting numbers… this price is way too low for someone of his caliber and I plan to have heavy exposure in 3 maxes and 20 max builds

Fades

1) Justin Thomas ($10,900) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 2nd SG: BS/5th SG: APP/11th BoB/5th Scrambling/12th Opps. Gained/5th Par 4s 450-500

Form: 2nd/MC/8th/10th

History: MC/8th/4th/MC/MC/37th

Notes: There is literally not one person above 9k that I am fully comfortable fading… JT is so elite as shown by his stats above and while I don’t think he will have any sort of “hangover” after his runner up finish in the playoff, I can’t play anyone and I’ll just buy the narrative that it’s tough to lose a playoff then go right back for a Top 5 or better… he could very easily win for what it’s worth…

2) Webb Simpson ($9,600) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 16th SG: BS/28th SG: APP/8th BoB/46th Scrambling/10th Opps. Gained/33rd Par 4s 450-500

Form: 8th/1st/MC

History: 67th/11th/MC/MC/7th

Notes: Ok… like I just above I could make a strong case for any of these guys to be a core play; however, I will grasp at straws and fade Webb because he’s best putting surface is by far Bermuda greens and he hasn’t played this course since 2017… that’s all I got… Webb has the chance to reach #1 in the world this week, just saying… pressure?

Favorite Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($10,300) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 8th SG: BS/8th SG: APP/2nd BoB/61st Scrambling/14th Opps Gained/12th Par 4s 450-500

Form: 1st/17th/MC

History: 8th/MC/3rd/13th/46th/MC/19th/4th

Notes: I love where DJ is priced both from a raw stand point and who he’s priced in between because I think he ends up being the forgotten man surrounded by Cantlay, Morikawa, Rory, JT and Bryson… when DJ gets hot and wins, he tends to do it a lot in a short period and I think he’s set up for that… he’s gained over 7 strokes T2G in each of his last 2 tournaments and is my favorite guy to win this week as of now…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Abraham Ancer ($8,500) Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 4th SG: BS/2nd SG: APP/9th BoB/51st Scrambling/30th Opps. Gained/73rd Par 4s 450-500

Form: 11th/2nd/14th

History: 65th/57th

Notes: Except for maybe Hovland, I’m pretty sure Ancer has struck the ball the best since the PGA restart as his last 3 tournaments have yielded 4.7 SG: APP, 11.8 SG: APP, and 4.2 SG: APP to go along with 6.7/13.7/5.1 T2G over the same tourneys… I think a win is coming very soon, maybe even this week, and as long as he doesn’t have to scramble TOO much (not his strong suit) and finds an average putter, he’ll be in contention

2) Joaquin Niemann ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 20th SG: BS/16th SG: APP/32nd BoB/37th Scrambling/21st Opps. Gained/58th Par 4s 450-500

Form: 31st/63rd/5th/32nd

History: 27th/6th

Notes: Per usual, since the restart, Niemann has been a ball striking machine, gaining strokes T2G/OTT/APP in all 4 tournaments and also per usual, has been putting terribly… people may forget that 2 years ago when he had barely played on the TOUR he was actually leading this tournament but ended up faltering and finishing 6th… he knows this course and gained 4.1 on both APP and T2G last week and is sub 8k… sign me up

3) Doc Redman ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 18th SG: BS/9th SG: APP/14th BoB/69th Scrambling/8th Opps. Gained/1st Par 4s 450-500

Form: 21st/11th/21st/58th

History: MC

Notes: Completely different fields but it is kind of funny to me that 2 weeks ago at Rocket Mortgage Redman was 25+% owned in places and was around 10k on DraftKings… now he’s 7600 and probably going well under 10%… ball striking MACHINE and now finished 21st or better in his last 3, I love him at that price as a terrific value and someone I’m interested in using in cash potentially…
Fades

1) Gary Woodland ($8,600) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 9th SG: BS/53rd SG: APP/4th BoB/141st Scrambling/80th Opps. Gained/64th SG: Par 4s

Form: 5th/MC/62nd/9th

History: 52nd/23rd/49th/4th/MC/57th/16th/MC/6th

Notes: I love Gary and will always root for him; however, his putter caught legit fire on the weekend as he ended up gaining 7 strokes putting for the week while losing ARG and gaining only 1.3 on APP… again, maybe he ball strikes his ass off this week but I’m not expecting a putting performance like that again and he’ll get elevated ownership after people see the T5

2) Kevin Streelman ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 10th SG: BS/15th SG: APP/12th BoB/82nd Scrambling/20th Opps. Gained/10th Par 4s 450-500

Form: 7th/2nd/MC/MC

History: 4th/44th/13th/8th/18th/MC/MC/MC/7th

Notes: This one hurts my soul… I love Streelman and think he’s an absolute goat but as I try to not have biases against guys I dislike I need to follow suit the other way… Streelman has been striking it well, but long term he’s an average putter at best and the last 2 weeks he’s gained 5 strokes in each tournament while continuing to lose ARG… I think he’ll get popular this week and would rather pivot elsewhere

Favorite Pivot

1) Byeong Hun An ($7,700) Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 79th SG: BS/56th SG: APP/94th BoB/85th Scrambling/118th Opps. Gained/9th Par 4s 450-500

Form: MC/46th/MC/60th

History: 17th/2nd/25th/11th

Notes: As someone who’s new to losing money on Benny An’s putter every week, last week was quite the ride as I FULLY think he makes the cut without a weather delay that halted his hot fire round; I don’t think anyone goes back to him this week after seeing his first round and a MC but in the second round he gained over 3 strokes on APP alone and was on his way to an average putting week… back to the well

OTHERS I LIKE: Rickie Fowler/Daniel Berger/Paul Casey/Sergio Garcia in ALL FORMATS
GPP ONLY/FLIERS: Justin Rose/Kevin Kisner/Harris English/Brendan Steele/Harold Varner III

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Chez Reavie ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Ranks 13th in SG: APP, 14th on Par 4s 450-500, and 19th in Scrambling… goes through super highs and super lows; gained on T2G and APP his last 2 tournaments and quietly finished T17 last week

2) Bernd Wiesberger ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Almost no PGA Tour stats but he’s a Top 30 ranked player in the world, has won 3 times in the last year, and has shown serious birdie upside over on the Euro… I wouldn’t load up on him but I like 10% or so in a 20 max

3) Talor Gooch ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: 29th in SG: BS, 17th in SG: APP, 44th in Opps. Gained, and ranks out pretty well on the comp courses for the week (27th in SG: Total); can get on VERY hot birdie runs

4) Tyler Duncan ($6,300) Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Criminal price for my main man Duncan… 44th in SG: BS, 38th in SG: APP, 35th in Scrambling and despite a poor weekend performance 2 weeks ago, he gained on both APP and T2G in the previous 3 tournaments and has shown to be a strong SG: ARG player… just need a made cut to hit serious value

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Viktor Hovland

3) Hideki Matsuyama

4) Tiger Woods

5) Abraham Ancer

6) Matt Kuchar

7) Joaquin Niemann

8) Paul Casey

9) Doc Redman

10) Lucas Glover

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

  1. Justin Thomas
  2. Bryson DeChambeau
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Collin Morikawa
  5. Webb Simpson
  6. Daniel Berger
  7. Xander Schauffele
  8. Abraham Ancer
  9. Kevin Streelman
  10. Viktor Hovland
  11. Patrick Cantlay
  12. Joaquin Niemann
  13. Gary Woodland
  14. Lucas Glover
  15. Kevin Na
  16. Rory McIlroy
  17. Sergio Garcia
  18. Doc Redman
  19. Justin Rose
  20. Adam Hadwin

SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts

Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as Rory/DJ/Cantlay, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys. My strategy for this week is to build a few rosters that have the studs that I feel confident will make the cut and can rack up birdies en route to hopefully a T10 or better and mix in 1-2 guys with high risk/high reward birdie upside to differentiate myself. Below is my table of 15 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays to see my SD core for the week!

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Patrick Cantlay

Justin Thomas

Xander Schauffele

Viktor Hovland

Gary Woodland

Rory McIlroy

Tiger Woods

OAD Pivots

Kevin Kisner

Patrick Reed

Billy Horschel

Dustin Johnson

Daniel Berger

Rickie Fowler

PGA Core Plays & Props

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