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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 Rocket Mortgage DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

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Course: Detroit Golf Club

Fast Facts

  • Par 72 approx. 7400 yards
  • Medium Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5200 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)
  • Easy to hit fairways (almost 70%) with a premium on Approach from 125-175/GIRs
  • Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
  • 2019 Cut: -5
  • 2019 Winning Score: -25
  • Corollary Courses: Riviera, Silverado Country Club, Sedgefield CC, East Lake GC
  • Course Fit Targets: Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Kevin Na, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson Dechambeau, Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, Brandt Snedeker

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 6-5; DK 3-8

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: When I finalized my cash lineup on Wednesday I thought it was perfect for double ups in that it had a “safe” floor with upside… it was not safe. Morikawa missed his first cut as a professional, Harman missed 2 putts of a combined 28 inches on Friday to miss the cut by 2, Scottie Scheffler bogeyed both Par 5s on Friday to miss the cut on the number, and Justin Rose… I don’t even know what happened to him on Friday. That was a long-winded way of saying my 2/6 lineup DID NOT cash in double ups. Sungjae made the cut on the number, Dahmen had a fine weekend and finished T20 (he’s a goat), but after all those disasters on Friday, I didn’t have to worry about a sweat because I was far out of it. I should have eaten the chalk with Hovland, which was a massive mistake, as a 3/6 with him in it would have cashed I believe and it’s a mistake I’ve made the first 3 weeks, which is eating the wrong chalk. I don’t have any dislike for Hovland, I just worried he could have an off week and be a chalk bomb… WRONG!

GPP: As is the theme with this review, my main GPP lineup was also a sad tale. Homa continued to make zero putts and missed the cut by 2, Woodland continued to have his 2-3 blows up holes over 2 rounds to miss the cut by 2, and Vaughn… well Vaughn was a risk and I thought he might make a charge, but he just didn’t have the putts. I thought I might have a chance at a min cash when Leishman/Xander/Rahm were close to the top after Friday, but Leish had a horrific weekend, Rahm never really got going, and Xander’s weak APP game finally got the best of him as he finished T20. I’m ready to forget about that crazy week (less than 2% of people got a 6/6 in the milly maker) and move onto by far the weakest field we’ve had since the COVID break.

Course and Weather Notes: We finally get a weaker field than these first 3 stacked ones but still get some big names with Rickie Fowler (Mr. Rocket Mortgage), Bryson, Finau, Reed, Webb, and some other decently ranked golfers at Detroit Golf Club. This was a new event last year so we only have 1 year of data go to off of but it’s clearly a scoring fest with easy to hit greens, easy to hit fairways, and a winning score that should exceed -20 or higher. Nate Lashley went wire to wire last year after getting in as an alternate and while I don’t quite see that happening again, I do like a long shot to get it done… focus on elite birdie makers (that should be every week), those who score well on Par 5s (3 of 4 should be reachable in 2 by the whole field), and some emphasis on Bent/Poa mix putters. I don’t see much in the weather except for it being HOT, so maybe an edge in Showdown this week as the guys who are off early should have much softer and receptive greens.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
  • BoB/Eagles Gained
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Par 4 BoB
  • SG: Putting (Bent/Poa Mix)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Viktor Hovland ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 23%

Key Stats: 1st SG: BS/3rd SG: APP/15th BoB, Eagles/3rd Opps. Gained/6th P4 BoB/94th SG: Putting

Form: 23rd/21st/11th

History: 13th

Notes: I believe this is where he made his PGA TOUR debut last year and finished 13th… Hovland has been a ball striking machine and it’s hard to see him slowing down… this is chalk I will eat and move on; I will play him in all formats

2) Kevin Na ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 12th SG: BS/20th SG: APP/21st BoB, Eagles/90th Opps. Gained/5th P4 BoB/2nd SG: Putting

Form: MC/5th

History: None

Notes: I almost never play Kevin Na, but this is the exact course he can get scorching hot on and go nuclear with irons/putting; I think his back is fine after his performance last week and despite missing the cut at Charles Schwab, he still gained 2 strokes on APP, he just couldn’t putt… he might get ownership after that finish but I like his upside here

NOTE: OBVIOUSLY BRYSON IS THE BEST PLAY IN THE FIELD, I JUST DID NOT WRITE HIM UP SINCE EVERY OTHER WRITE UP WILL FEATURE HIM; ELITE PLAY IN ALL FORMATS

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 21st SG: BS/68th SG: APP/9th BoB, Eagles/133rd Opps. Gained/10th P4 BoB/66th SG: Putting

Form: 23rd/33rd/MC

History: None

Notes: People know I rarely play Finau since he’s always chalk, but his finishes have gotten worse over the last 3 weeks, he’s lost strokes on APP in all 3 tournaments and his price is now about 1000 more expensive than the last few… would much rather pivot from this chalk to others in the 9k range

2) Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 10th SG: BS/31st SG: APP/26th BoB, Eagles/10th Opps. Gained/31st P4 BoB/69th SG: Putting

Form: MC/55th

History: None

Notes: Since I’m jumping off after playing him the last few weeks he’ll probably burn me, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together as the first week he couldn’t putt and the last week he couldn’t hit his irons so at this elevated price and probably 15+% ownership, I’ll pivot elsewhere

Favorite Pivot

1) Bubba Watson ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 9th SG: BS/69th SG: APP/41st BoB, Eagles/20th Opps. Gained/9th P4 BoB/36th SG: Putting

Form: MC/52nd/7th

History: MC

Notes: Not a “Bubba” track, a MC last week at a place he’s won 3 times, and a MC here last year all adds up to Bubba being sub 10% and a great GPP leverage option; it does worry me that he’s looked shaky the last 2 weeks, but he can go very low if he gets the putter working and he ranks #1 in SG: Total on the course comps that I listed above; elite Poa putter, and mostly missed the cut last week due to a very weak putting performance

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Erik Van Rooyen ($8,000) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 23rd SG: BS/33rd SG: APP/29th BoB, Eagles/92nd Opps. Gained/23rd P4 BoB/81st SG: Putting

Form: 21st/MC

History: None

Notes: A little surprised to see his expected ownership to be honest but I still really like him as a play in this 8k range; he has less rounds of data compared to others as he plays primarily on the Euro Tour, but his best putting surface is Poa and he did come 21st at RBC Heritage after a solid 5.4 strokes gained T2G; I think he’s an excellent option in a 3 max GPP

2) Harold Varner III ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 3rd SG: BS/2nd SG: APP/18th BoB, Eagles/2nd Opps. Gained/21st P4 BoB/70th SG: Putting

Form: 32nd/MC/19th

History: MC

Notes: He’s getting a ton of buzz, which makes me a little nervous as he could be a 7k chalk bomb, but his stats have been fantastic since the break, gaining 5.7 strokes on APP at Charles Schwab and 7.2 at the Travelers, but unfortunately his short game faltered hard in both appearances; I think he’s too cheap for this field and view him as a play in all formats

3) Tyler Duncan ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 8th SG: BS/9th SG: APP/20th BoB, Eagles/5th Opps. Gained/46th P4 BoB/123rd SG: Putting

Form: 32nd/28th/38th

History: MC

Notes: My favorite DK value of the week and also my favorite longshot bet at 150/1; Duncan’s APP and ball striking are immaculate and if he can just find the putter consistently for all 4 days he will be right there; has made all 3 cuts since the restart and gained 4.3/2/and 3.7 strokes on APP the last 3 weeks as well as 2.2/3.7/7/5 T2G… he won back when the swing season started so he can win in these weaker fields and I hope he can find at least some average putting in Detroit
Fades

1) Doc Redman ($8,500) Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 2nd SG: BS/1st SG: APP/17th BoB, Eagles/1st Opps. Gained/20th P4 BoB/136th SG: Putting

Form: 11th/21st/58th

History: 2nd

Notes: Doc Redman is very, very good; one of the better young ball strikers in the game today; however, I cannot justify paying 8500 at 20+% ownership for a guy that has been in the 6k or low 7k range for a better part of the last year… if he burns me, he burns me but I’ll take the risk of fading him at that price

2) Kyle Stanley ($7,100) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 27th SG: BS/29th SG: APP/88th BoB, Eagles/9th Opps. Gained/71st P4 BoB/150th SG: Putting

Form: 24th/MC

History:21st

Notes: So Stanley has one week where he finishes T25 and gains 2.4 strokes on APP and he’s now projected at over 10% ownership? LOL. He has gained strokes putting 1 time this calendar year and still missed the cut… that is an auto fade for me and I don’t really understand the love

Favorite Pivot

1) Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,300) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 64th SG: BS/10th SG: APP/25th BoB, Eagles/64th Opps. Gained/28th P4 BoB/29th SG: Putting

Form: 28th/MC

History: None

Notes: I’m surprised he has any buzz at all… in his 2 starts since the break he has gained strokes both T2G and on APP and although has very limited stats on the PGA TOUR, he has shown upside in strong field events which gives me confidence in this weaker field as he finished Top 20 at the WGC HSBC, Top 30 in WGC Mexico, and 18th at the Arnold Palmer earlier this year

OTHERS I LIKE: Rory Sabbatini/J.T. Poston/Adam Hadwin (chalk)/Brandt Snedeker/Brian Harman
GPP ONLY/FLIERS: Scott Stallings/Lucas Glover/Sebastian Munoz/Michael Thompson/Talor Gooch/Tom Hoge

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Sam Burns ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: 4th in Opps. Gained/4th in BoB, Eagles in this field while sitting ranked 43rd in SG: BS; he has super high upside if he gets the putter working

2) Jason Dufner ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Always has a terrible short game but has quietly made 7 straight cuts which is all you need at this price; 45th SG: BS, 43rd SG: APP, 42nd Opps. Gained

3) Chesson Hadley ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 6th in SG: BS, 18th SG: APP, 11th in BoB, Eagles but can be just so volatile; love him as a GPP dart in a 3 max or having 7-10% exposure in a 20 max

4) Cameron Davis ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: 13th SG: BS, 14th Opps. Gained, 19th P4 BoB, 14th BoB, Eagles… he’s a great young talent you just need to find the weeks he putts well, which has not been the last few tournaments

Cash Game Options

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Viktor Hovland

3) Sungjae Im

4) Rory Sabbatini

5) Adam Hadwin

6) Brian Harman

7) Harold Varner III

8) Brant Snedeker

9) Mark Hubbard

10) Lucas Glover

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 25% Recent Form, 5% Course History, 10% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

  1. Bryson Dechambeau
  2. Viktor Hovland
  3. Patrick Reed
  4. Tyrrell Hatton
  5. Webb Simpson
  6. Lucas Glover
  7. Doc Redman
  8. Kevin Na
  9. Harold Varner III
  10. Bubba Watson
  11. Rory Sabbatini
  12. Michael Thompson
  13. Brian Harman
  14. Adam Hadwin
  15. Tony Finau
  16. Tyler Duncan
  17. Chesson Hadley
  18. Scott Stallings
  19. Sungjae Im
  20. Will Gordon

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Viktor Hovland

Tyrrell Hatton

Bryson DeChambeau

Doc Redman

Tony Finau

OAD Pivots

Bubba Watson

Erik Van Rooyen

J.T. Poston

Brandt Snedeker

PGA Core Plays & Props

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