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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 Waste Management DraftKings Picks/Fades/Pivots and OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: TPC Scottsdale

Fast Facts

  • Par 71; 7260 yards
  • Greens: Bermuda which run around 12-13 on the stimp (FAST)
  • Average green size around 6000 feet
  • Average Driving Distance about 15 yards longer than TOUR average (296 vs. 282)
  • Field: 128 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut after Round 2
  • Average Cut around Even
  • Average winning score around -13 to -15
  • Corollary Courses: TPC Sawgrass (PLAYERS Championship) and Stadium Course (The AMEX)
  • Course Fit Targets: Hideki Matsuyama (2 time winner), Scottie Scheffler (elite birdie maker), Emiliano Grillo (elite ball striker), Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 2-1; DK 1-2

GPP Results – See table below

Starting this season, and feel free to skip if you’re not interested, I will be writing a more in depth recap of not only the week ahead, but perhaps more importantly, what went into my thought process for both my cash game team (only 1 per week) and my main GPP team (I multi-enter each week but play my one “main” team in all multi entry/single entry/3 entry max, etc.).

Cash: Phew. Unlike at the American Express where I thought I may have had a chance with a 5/6 lineup in cash to end up in the money, this past week I was about 80% sure my lineup was dead around 3 hours into the tournament. I was seriously high on Lanto and I KNEW I should have pivoted after I heard him get talked up and that I knew he would be chalk; however, I had been burned by chalk the last several weeks so I let it ride. Well, after 5 holes in which he had made 2 doubles, then finished his first nine with a 41 and finished the day losing 3.1 strokes putting I knew he was pretty much out of it. Now Carlos Ortiz, another cheaper guy I was high on, took a different route. He botched the North Course, otherwise known as the “easier one” to shoot +2 on Day 1 to more or less ensure a MC but then made it official by making no birdies until his 4th to last hole on Day 2. Lastly, we have Munoz, who like the other 2 I loved coming in as all his stats lined up; however, he too lost over 3 strokes putting in one round, shot +2 on Day 1 on the “easier” course. So, to recap the cash lineup, I really liked all the value plays I made but they were all sunk after Day 1 and my cash sweat was pretty much over. Now we move to GPP which was somehow even worse.

GPP: Lol. That’s all I can say about this team. I knew I had a bunch of cheaper chalk guys so I tried to differentiate with anchoring my team with Tiger and Rickie. Tiger ended up fine, as he finished T9 but Rickie… well Rickie did not. I liked Fowler’s finishes in his last few despite not closing and I knew he would be low owned at a tournament that he historically hadn’t played very well, and his resulting ownership followed suit. On Day 1, Rickie, a notoriously fantastic putter, missed putts of the following lengths: 6 feet, 7 feet, 2 feet, 8 feet, and 4 feet. He ended up shooting 75 on the day and would have needed a 68 on Friday to make the cut in which he naturally shot… 69. The other pieces of my main team, as I’ve mentioned I do before, came partially from my cash lineup in Munoz/Lanto/Ortiz who all missed the cut. Finally, I played a low owned Matt Jones who did make the cut and made a few eagles but the putter let him down as well as he lost over 2 strokes on the greens for the week despite his usual stellar SG: OTT performance.

Overall, cash team went 2/6 and GPP went 2/6. I also don’t want to come off as if I’m making any excuses for the above lineups because they clearly sucked and a lot of the coin flip decisions I had or gut feelings I had were dead wrong. I had a decision between Lanto and paying up for Leishman… but I went Lanto. I had a decision to play Reed in my main lineup and as my OAD pick for the week or Rickie… I chose Rickie. And lastly, in cash, I pivoted off Ryan Palmer to drop down to the lower 7k range to avoid some chalk… huge mistake. Easily in my Top 3, maybe my all time, worst weeks ever and I am excited for what is probably the most fun tournament to watch all year, the Waste Management!

Course and Weather Notes: As mentioned above, this is one of the most electric events of the entire year as over 600,000 total patrons will attend over 4 days and a large majority will be inside the 16th hole which is a literal stadium. A short par 3 but with crowd buzzing, people hammered, and the possible pressure of a lead, it is anything but easy. I suggest searching for “Waste Management 16th Hole” if you’ve never seen it before because it’s truly incredible. The weather looks great all week with light to no winds and we have a pretty stacked field with many of the world’s Top 50 coming to play. This course is all about approach, approach, approach. These greens are sneaky fast and the guys that are locked in on that 150-200 yard range should excel and have plenty of birdie opportunities. There are water hazards on 6 of the holes so the big numbers are there but the guys that can birdie all the reachable par 5s (3 of them) and go a few under on the drivable #17 should end up near the top.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards)
  • SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
  • BoB Gained
  • GIRs Gained
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500
  • SG: Par 5s

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($11,200) Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 2nd SG: BS/4th SG: APP Blend/2nd SG: Par 5s/1st SG: OTT/1st BoB/22nd GIRs Gained

Form: MC/1st/5th

History: 3rd/17th/MC/MC/17th

Notes: Not much that needs to be said about JT… he’s a beast and although his course history here is mixed I love him at the discount to Rahm in both price AND ownership; I probably won’t pay up in cash but he’s an spend for single entry/3 maxes along with MME GPP lineups

2) Webb Simpson ($10,300) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 11th SG: BS/9th SG: APP Blend/28th SG: Par 5s/75th SG: OTT/3rd BoB/40th GIRs Gained

Form: 3rd/10th/2nd

History: 20th/MC/2nd/14th/10th/8th/8th/MC

Notes: Coming off a 3rd at the Sony I love Webb in this spot and it’s probably where I’ll start my cash games this week; not a long hitter but very accurate and can rack up birdies on Par 5s and is coming in with 3 straight Top 10s… he will be chalky I think for sure so I will look to differentiate elsewhere

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($9,600) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 4th SG: BS/12th SG: APP Blend/3rd SG: Par 5s/7th SG: OTT/20th BoB/9th GIRs Gained

Form: 6th/14th/5th/10th/MC

History: MC/MC/MC/MC/22nd

Notes: I like this new format because it highlights who I’m fading in spite of a lot of positive results; Finau’s stats are impeccable, his form is great, but when we get to his course history it’s quite the anomaly; I will fade for 2 reasons here: 1) I think this will be a case of “everyone is fading him, so I’ll play him at low ownership” and all of sudden he’s 20% owned and 2) I know course history isn’t everything but 4 straight? Something clearly doesn’t work for him here

2) Matt Kuchar ($9,400) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 101st SG: BS/79th SG: APP Blend/52nd SG: Par 5s/116th SG: OTT/119th BoB/112th GIRs Gained

Form: 1st (rando Asian Tour Event)/MC/14th/14th/MC/14th

History: 4th/5th/9th/30th/33rd/43rd

Notes: Kuchar always seems to play well here and his form isn’t awful as he did win recently (albeit in a scrub event) and has had a weird string of 3 straight T14 finishes before that… and then we look at his stats and see that he has been horrendous in just about every category as of late and it makes a fade of him that much easier in favor of guys who are in better form and possess the key stats we want

Favorite Pivot

1) Gary Woodland ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 28th SG: BS/34th SG: APP Blend/27th SG: Par 5s/30th SG: OTT/30th BoB/19th GIRs Gained

Form: MC/7th/7th/20th

History: 7th/1st/MC/33rd/MC/37th/16th/26th/5th

Notes: I’m hoping some people have a bitter taste in their mouth who got burned last week by a chalk Woodland (me included) but he’s already won here and is a perfect fit with those stinger irons he can hit off the tees and his GIRs numbers; tough to find a “pivot” in this range as most will be high owned by I love Gary as a bounce back candidate

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Sungjae Im ($8,800) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 26th SG: BS/35th SG: APP Blend/21st SG: Par 5s/24th SG: OTT/4th BoB/18th GIRs Gained

Form: 36th/10th/21st/11th/3rd/39th

History: 7th

Notes: Im hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s British Open, has gained strokes T2G in his last 5 measured tournaments, is on his best putting surface, and seems to me that he’s very, very close to his first win; finished 7th in his first and only appearance here last year so I expect him to rack up birdies and subsequent DK Points, as he’s averaging the 6th most in the field over his last 5 tournaments (87.8)

2) Corey Conners ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 10th SG: BS/27th SG: APP Blend/7th SG: Par 5s/19th SG: OTT/14th BoB/1st GIRs Gained

Form: 12th/19th

History: None

Notes: One of the very best ball strikers on TOUR, as shown above by his stats, but will he find the putter? He does putt about 0.5 strokes better on Bermuda and if he can gain anything over zero strokes on the greens, he is almost guaranteed a T12 or better… a core play for me this week

3) Emiliano Grillo ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 3rd SG: BS/7th SG: APP Blend/46th SG: Par 5s/14th SG: OTT/38th BoB/7th GIRs Gained

Form: MC/21st/41st

History: 33rd/57th/63rd/45th

Notes: He’s gonna pop in any stat model as he’s elite T2G but his Achilles heel will always be the putter… has made all 4 cuts here and I’m hoping that his lack of form and known bad putting skills will keep people off of him; I’m not sure if it’s a good sign or not but he has GAINED strokes putting in his last 2 events so maybe trending?
Fades

1) Viktor Hovland ($8,400) Projected Ownership: 15

Key Stats: 1st SG: BS/3rd SG: APP Blend/20th SG: Par 5s/2nd SG: OTT/18th BoB/34th GIRs Gained

Form: 23rd/MC/MC

History: None

Notes: I like Hovland a lot and I know he’s going to win soon, just look at his stats; however, what gives me pause is that he’s traveling from Saudi Arabi, his form isn’t that superb, and he’s never played here before… seems a little expensive given the options around him

2) Byeong Hun An ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 61st SG: BS/30th SG: APP Blend/30th SG: Par 5s/83rd SG: OTT/27th BoB/100th GIRs Gained

Form: 68th/MC

History: 20th/23rd/6th

Notes: Very solid course history at TPC Scottsdale but I definitely see him being the low/mid 7k chalk and that makes him an easy pivot for me; his ball striking hasn’t been what it usually is and he struggles in the key par 4 range this week as well (450-500 yards where he ranks 121st in the field)

Favorite Pivot

1) Matthew Wolff ($8,000) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 30th SG: BS/83rd SG: APP Blend/34th SG: Par 5s/6th SG: OTT/29th BoB/68th GIRs Gained

Form: 21st/61st/11th

History: 50th

Notes: Bounced back very well last week after shooting 76 in the first round and is such an elite OTT player that I love this price; already a winner on TOUR and cut maker at this event last year, I love Wolff’s upside for GPPs; Over his last 5 tournaments he is gaining 3 strokes, on average, OTT and is returning to his best putting surface, Bermuda

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Chesson Hadley ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 29th in SG: BS/19th in SG: APP Blend/10th BoB; has finished 20th/5th here last 2 years

2) Cameron Tringale ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: 14th SG: BS/22nd SG: APP Blend/23rd SG: Par 5s/27th GIRs Gained; cheap cash game option

3) Sebastian Cappelen ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: 55th SG: Par 5s/25th SG: OTT/18th Par 4s 450-500; last 2 starts were a 21st and a 6th

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson

2) Hideki Matsuyama

3) Gary Woodland

4) Sungjae Im

5) Corey Conners

6) Vaughn Taylor

7) Joel Dahmen

8) Cameron Tringale

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Jon Rahm
  2. Justin Thomas
  3. Webb Simpson
  4. Ryan Palmer
  5. Xander Schauffele
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Gary Woodland
  8. Hideki Matsuyama
  9. Rickie Fowler
  10. Collin Morikawa
  11. Scottie Scheffler
  12. Bubba Watson
  13. Brandt Snedeker
  14. Sungjae Im
  15. Brendan Steele

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Hideki Matsuyama

Webb Simpson

Bubba Watson

Gary Woodland

Matt Kuchar

OAD Pivots

Sungjae Im

Ryan Palmer

Scottie Scheffler

Corey Conners

Ryan Moore

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