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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 WGC Mexico DraftKings Preview and Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec

Fast Facts

  • Par 71 approx. 7345 yards
  • Actual sea-level distance more like 6800-6900 yards (Mexico at about 7,400 altitude)
  • Only played here since 2017
  • Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (slightly smaller than TOUR average)
  • Driving Accuracy 59% compared to TOUR average 61%
  • GIR% 66% compared to TOUR average 66%
  • Field: 72 players; No cut
  • Average winning score around -17
  • Corollary Courses: Riviera, Firestone CC, Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines
  • Course Fit Targets: Dustin Johnson (2-time winner), Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 3-3; DK 2-4

GPP Results – See table below

Starting this season, and feel free to skip if you’re not interested, I will be writing a more in depth recap of not only the week ahead, but perhaps more importantly, what went into my thought process for both my cash game team (only 1 per week) and my main GPP team (I multi-enter each week but play my one “main” team in all multi entry/single entry/3 entry max, etc.).

Cash: Well we got back on track in a big way this past week as cash destroyed, beating the cash line by around 75+ points depending on the contest, we had the winner in there, and if you follow me over at BetKarma, we had a 33/1 outright on Scott that hit as well. I think this past week I really liked my roster construction in cash… enough so that I finalized it Wednesday morning and didn’t change it. DJ’s price made no sense at 10k despite his form, which got us a Top 10 despite him still not having his best stuff, Hideki made the cut on the number and in classic Hideki fashion stormed up the leaderboard for a T5, and then Adam Scott held his composure all weekend after a bogey free 64 on Friday to get the win. I didn’t care about the Scott layoff and thought he was much too cheap for his talent and his prowess at Riviera. The other pieces of cash, Carlos Ortiz, who I play every week, returned his value and then some with a T26 and it honestly could have been much better if he putted like he usually does. I rarely go below 7k for cash but I thought his talent was better than that price tag and given the loaded field I knew he would be pushed down. Corey Conners once again burned me, but it didn’t matter after Hideki made the cut along with a Bubba MC and Xander/Tony largely at the bottom of the leaderboard all weekend. Paul Casey, similar to DJ, had a price tag that made no sense at all in which he had one bad Sunday in tough conditions at Pebble to see him sub 8k… bizarre to me and seemed like a lock for any and all cash games.

GPP: My main team was similar to cash except I swapped out a MC for another MC in which Niemann missed the cut on the number after bogeying the last hole… classic. I also played Keegan who in hindsight, yes that was a terrible play, but I thought he could ball strike his way around here and couldn’t believe that he lost over 5 strokes in ROUND ONE ALONE. That was truly remarkable and even though I had Scott on that team, the other pieces weren’t great as Morikawa ended up fine but my high-priced guy in Jon Rahm never got much going and finished T17 I believe but not enough for a major cash. What kept things from being a GREAT week over a solid week was Tiger Woods and Justin Thomas in which Tiger putted maybe the worst weekend of his entire life and JT… well I just didn’t know what was happening on THU/FRI. He couldn’t hit his irons straight and he couldn’t putt… just very odd and something I haven’t seen from him in the 4+ years I’ve been watching.

Course and Weather Notes: It’s weird to look at this field and notice it’s actually weaker than last week’s invitational but that’s the draw that Tiger Woods gets and he, along with Cantlay (having surgery on a deviated septum), Brooks (knee is aggravated) and a few other top players in the world will be skipping the first WGC event of 2020. This is the 4th edition on this course and the key things to remember are the elevation change, as noted above, in which despite being listed as 7300+ yards, it plays significantly shorter and a bomber like DJ has the ability to probably drive 3-5 of the Par 4s and easily get to the Par 5s with a short iron. Because it plays short, Driving Distance isn’t paramount but obviously never hurts. Target strong wedge players (excel between 75-150 yards) who are good Poa putters and can rack up birdies. As far as the weather, there looks to be possible semi-tough winds the first few days but 1) that can always change and 2) with how tree lined this course is, a lot of the wind is mitigated. Lastly, I personally won’t be playing cash games this week as I don’t like no cut events for that since there isn’t nearly the same edge; however, I will still list some cash game targets at the bottom for those interested.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: T2G
  • SG: APP (emphasis on <150 yards)
  • BoB Gained
  • GIRs Gained
  • SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)
  • Opportunities Gained

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,600) Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 1st SG: T2G/7th SG: APP/1st BoB Gained/4th GIRs Gained/23rd SG: P (Poa)/3rd Opps. Gained

Form: 5th/3rd/4th/1st/3rd

History: 2nd/DNP/7th

Notes: Rinse and repeat with Rory… not exactly saying anything groundbreaking but he’s far and away the best player here this week; he has 10 Top 10s or better in his last 12 starts with 2 wins and it’s legitimately shocking he hasn’t won more… he should gouge this course relatively easily; he’s a near lock for me in Single Entry GPPs despite the price and expected ownership

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,400) Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 4th SG: T2G/13th SG: APP/19th BoB Gained/3rd GIRs Gained/12th SG: P (Poa)/30th Opps. Gained

Form: 23rd/16th/MC/2nd/10th

History: 14th/18th/DNP

Notes: He’s certainly going to end up as mega chalk but we’ve seen him in no-cut/WGC events before and he has the ability to shake off mediocre rounds and go very, very low; normally his best putting surface, Xander has struggled on Poa the last few weeks and especially through 3 rounds at Riviera, he could not make anything… I don’t expect that to last and I think we have value at only $9,400 for a guy who makes a ton of birdies and can make multiple eagles as well

Fades

1) Jon Rahm ($10,600) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 10th SG: T2G/29th SG: APP/10th BoB Gained/5th GIRs Gained/3rd SG: P (Poa)/36th Opps. Gained

Form: 17th/9th/2nd/10th/2nd

History: 45th/20th/3rd

Notes: Never a good feeling to fade Rahm but you can’t play everyone and in trying to figure out who not to play, I’ll side with Rahm’s poor course history; something about this course must not fit his eye… further, last week his irons were weak, losing 1.5 strokes on APP and the past 2 weeks, he’s lost strokes around the green, which can be important to avoiding bogeys here… I’ll fade Rahm this week but definitely don’t feel fantastic about it

2) Webb Simpson ($9,800) Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 6th SG: T2G/1st SG: APP/2nd BoB Gained/13th GIRs Gained/2nd SG: P (Poa)/10th Opps. Gained

Form: 1st/3rd/10th

History: 39th/37th

Notes: When you look his stats this seems like just a bad choice to fade, and maybe it is, but again, I can’t play everyone, Webb has weak course history, and at that price, I would rather pay up $200 for Hideki or drop down to Scott/Xander/Fleetwood for less money; the ultimate deciding factor was me favoring guys here with more distance if I can, which is something Webb certainly doesn’t have

Favorite Pivot

1) Bryson Dechambeau ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 9th SG: T2G/47th SG: APP/44th BoB Gained/34th GIRs Gained/22nd SG: P (Poa)/13th Opps. Gained

Form: 5th/52nd/8th/MC/15th

History: 56th

Notes: I think with his persona as the “scientist” everyone thought Bryson would be able to figure out the changes in yardages last year and succeed… yet he proceeded to finish outside the Top 50; I liked what I saw from Bryson this past week as he very quietly finished T5 and did so by gaining over 10 strokes T2G and over 3.5 on APP while losing 1.6 strokes putting… I think he has winning upside here and although labeled as a “pivot” he will still be over 10% owned I think so I will look to have around 25-30% exposure

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Sergio Garcia ($8,600) Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats (Euro): 14th SG: T2G/20th SG: APP/47th GIR%/47th SG: OTT/124th SG: P

Form: 37th/6th/23rd/8th/MC

History: 6th/7th/12th

Notes: Well it looks like we’re eating some Sergio chalk… that should end well; Sergio clearly likes this course given his past 3 years here and after what I call a nightmare 2019, he seems to have regained some form, making his last several cuts and last week at Riviera he finished Top 10 in the field T2G and unsurprisingly, finished bottom 10 in SG: Putting, losing 4 strokes; this is a good price and since he looks to be 20+% owned, I may go around field average and look to find leverage elsewhere

2) Abraham Ancer ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 20th SG: T2G/28th SG: APP/12th BoB Gained/16th GIRs Gained/25th SG: P (Poa)/61st Opps. Gained

Form: 43rd/6th/2nd/38th/33rd

History: 39th/52nd/DNP

Notes: Wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up higher owned due to playing in his home country, but Ancer has gained on APP in his last 4 measured events, has 2 Top 6 finishes in his last 3 starts, and looking back at last year, he played great with his irons/off the tee but couldn’t putt… I like for some large upside

3) Chez Reavie ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 4%

Key Stats: 14th SG: T2G/27th SG: APP/27th BoB Gained/23rd GIRs Gained/58th SG: P (Poa)/20th Opps. Gained

Form: 10th/25th/MC/MC/MC/27th/13th

History: 65th/52nd/DNP

Notes: His form is mixed and his course history isn’t good; however, we will get Chez at almost no ownership due to that string of missed cuts in which he was going through an equipment change and couldn’t hit his irons; this past week he gained over 5 strokes T2G and although SG: APP wasn’t terrific, over 4 days I think Chez has T20 upside or better and at sub 5% we only need 10-12% to be overweight the field by over double

Fades

1) Matt Kuchar ($8,800) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 33rd SG: T2G/16th SG: APP/26th BoB Gained/20th GIRs Gained/1st SG: P (Poa)/62nd Opps. Gained

Form: 2nd/38th/16th/1st/MC/14th/14th

History: 50th/58th/20th

Notes: Last week was something else as Kuchar gained over 9 strokes putting while losing strokes on APP and T2G to then finish T2… his ball striking has been very weak this year, his course history is poor, and he’s an easy fade for me no matter what the ownership

2) Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats (Euro): 158th SG: T2G/185th SG: APP/152nd GIR%/112th SG: OTT/75th SG: P

Form: 17th/MC/56th/MC/12th

History: 19th/3rd/38th

Notes: People just like playing Bello in these WGC events and majors and I don’t really know why because he rarely finishes very high (exception would be 2018) and if you look at his Euro stats or high PGA stats they’re not that impressive; last week he finished 17th at Riviera but did it mostly putting and around the green as he actually lost 0.5 strokes on APP; he’ll end up in the teens in ownership and a definite fade for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Branden Grace ($7,800) Projected Ownership: 4%

Key Stats (Euro): 6th SG: T2G/5th SG: APP/49th GIR%/53rd SG: OTT/18th SG: P

Form: MC/MC/9th/17th/1st

History: 33rd/30th/32nd

Notes: This one is definitely riskier as Grace can start to struggle and never regain form the whole tournament; however, he also has the ability to get hot and go super low… I hope people see his 2 MCs and avoid but I love him as a GPP pivot play; he’s great T2G and on SG: APP, he’s coming off a win a few weeks ago and although his course history isn’t stellar, it’s reasonable enough and at sub 8k, we don’t need him to win, we just want some upside

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Sebastian Munoz ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: 27th SG: T2G/22nd SG: APP/5th Opps. Gained/20th BoB Gained; gained on APP in 3 of his last 4

2) Carlos Ortiz ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 13%

Quick Hits: 24th SG: T2G/32nd SG: APP/21st SG: P (Poa)/21st GIRs Gained; he could end up as actual chalk but he’s just way too cheap for his form; Poa is by far his best putting surface too

European Tour Fliers for GPPs

Victor Perez

Lucas Herbert

Michael Lorenzo-Vera

Ryan Fox

Cash Game Options

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Tommy Fleetwood

3) Paul Casey

4) Sergio Garcia

5) Scottie Scheffler

6) Carlos Ortiz

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% Course History, and 15% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Rory McIlroy
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Jon Rahm
  4. Webb Simpson
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Louis Oosthuizen
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Bryson Dechambeau
  10. Matt Kuchar
  11. Patrick Reed
  12. Marc Leishman
  13. Abraham Ancer
  14. Collin Morikawa
  15. Dustin Johnson

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Dustin Johnson

Rory McIlroy

Tommy Fleetwood

Xander Schauffele

Sergio Garcia

OAD Pivots

Patrick Reed

Abraham Ancer

Gary Woodland

Louis Oosthuizen

Collin Morikawa

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