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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 3M Open DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, MN

Fast Facts

  • Par 71; 7431 yards designed by Arnold Palmer
  • 27 water hazards throughout the course with 72 bunkers
  • Large Bentgrass greens
  • VERY wide fairways (avg 38 yards in width) and 3 easy Par 5s all reachable in 2
  • AVG Cut the last 2 years -1 to -2
  • Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
  • Corollary Courses: TPC Deere Run, TPC Summerlin, Keene Trace, Detroit GC, RTJ Trail
  • Top Course Fit Targets: Matthew Wolff, Adam Hadwin, Tony Finau, Ryan Moore, Cameron Tringale, Steve Stricker, Patton Kizzire, Sam Ryder, Adam Schenk, Patrick Reed

Course and Weather Notes: The week after a major is almost always a letdown and while this field is definitely stronger than I expected, it still could get weaker due to 1) late WDs but guys who are drained from last week such as DJ/Louis, etc (so watch out for that), but also 2) it is sure to lack even close to the same drama and intensity as a major like the Open. This course the past 2 years has come down to guys scoring on the long par 4s (6 are 450 or longer), scoring on the Par 5s which the entire field can reach in 2, and getting a hot putter. Similar to courses (also comp courses listed above) like TPC Deere Run, Detroit GC, or Keene Trace (Barbasol), I will put heavy emphasis on APP/OTT/BoB % and SG: Putting on Bent and definiltey try to get contrarian from some chalk guys who are coming over from the Open and may not be as motivated as a normal event. Good luck this week!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards)
  • BoB Gained
  • SG: OTT
  • SG: T2G
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Bubba Watson ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 43rd
  • BoB Gained – 2nd
  • SG: OTT – 3rd
  • SG: T2G – 7th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 3rd
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 71st

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 6th

Last 3 Starts – 6th // 19th // 50th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 6th // 19th // 50th // WD // 80th // 18th  

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Bubba didn’t tee it up overseas last week so not only should he be fresh but he’s having a tremendous season, at least statistically, as he’s top 10 in the field in BoB/SG: OTT/SG: T2G/SG: Par 4s 450-500 and while at this point in his career we normally target him on “bubba tracks” (where he’s had success before), this set up with easy scoring/eagle opportunities on all par 5s/large fairways should suit him perfectly as long as the putter is working

2) Keegan Bradley ($8,800) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 1st
  • BoB Gained – 66th
  • SG: OTT – 17th
  • SG: T2G – 3rd
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 4th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 130th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 14th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 14th // MC // MC // 17th // 18th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 46th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Missed cut last week as somewhat “cheap chalk” and I probably should have expected that; however, Keegan continues to be a ball-striking machine as he’s gained OTT in 6 straight measured events, gained on APP in every event but one in the last full YEAR, and we know the story… if he putts well, which is never, he’ll be in contention

Fades

1) Cameron Tringale ($9,500) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 25th
  • BoB Gained – 20th
  • SG: OTT – 127th
  • SG: T2G – 42nd
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 68th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 6th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 26th

Last 3 Starts – 26th // 14th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 26th // 14th // MC // 26th // 32nd // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 3rd // 42nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Tringale is having an amazing season, but his Vegas odds/DK price combined with expected chalk is a total pass for me as he’s been a little shakier on APP lately, gaining in 3 of his last 5 yet has now lost strokes OTT in 6 straight measured events… he played well at a comp course (Detroit Golf Club), finishing T14, but outside of that his last T15 or better finish was in May at the Valspar

2) Robert Macintyre ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 65th
  • BoB Gained – 35th
  • SG: OTT – 47th
  • SG: T2G – 48th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 72nd
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 118th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 8th

Last 3 Starts – 8th // 18th // 35th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 8th // 18th // 35th // 37th // 49th // 8th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I love Bobby Mac long term and when looking at world rank/strokes gained Total/etc etc this week he’s probably one of the better players but he does seem a bit overpriced and after a T8 at the Open last week I think he could end up being the next “flavor of the week” and go over-owned; it’s a limited sample but Bobby Mac hasn’t shown to be the best putter, having only gained strokes putting in 2 events on TOUR this year out of 7 played (on the PGA TOUR that is)

Favorite Pivot

1) Rickie Fowler ($8,900) Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 51st
  • BoB Gained – 48th
  • SG: OTT – 90th
  • SG: T2G – 37th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 10th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 47th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 53rd

Last 3 Starts – 53rd // 32nd // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 53rd // 32nd // MC // 11th // 8th // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: He’s probably overpriced, his form is clearly not great and obviously I’m just biased here… but he is going to be sub 10%, he made the cut last week (albeit not the best weekend rounds), and has done well on the comp courses as he’s 3/3 in made cuts at Detroit GC, has good history on TPC tracks, and his OTT game shouldn’t kill him here with wide fairways

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Hank Lebioda ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 22nd
  • BoB Gained – 3rd
  • SG: OTT – 75th
  • SG: T2G – 15th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 49th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 1st

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 8th  

Last 3 Starts – 8th // 4th // 5th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 8th // 4th // 5th // 31st // 17th // 51st

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 26th // 34th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: He may be 20-25% owned but it’s hard to argue against Lebioda’s form right now with 3 straight Top 10s, 7 straight made cuts, and positive strokes T2G in all 7 of those events; he’s riding a hot putter right now, which can be viewed as a candidate for regression or a hope that he keeps it up and racks up another T10 finish or better

2) Patrick Rodgers ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 80th
  • BoB Gained – 7th
  • SG: OTT – 2nd
  • SG: T2G – 16th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 6th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 41st

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 5th  

Last 3 Starts – 5th // 23rd // 41st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 5th // 23rd // 41st // 76th // 31st // 50th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 32nd     

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Love this price for Rodgers as he’s on his best putting surface historically, he’s made his last 6 cuts with his most recent coming last week at a comp course where he finished T5…. He’s gained on APP in 4 of his last 6, gained T2G in 5 of his last 6, and while the putter has been cold for SO LONG, when he gets that rolling he can make birdies in bunches

3) Sam Ryder ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 4%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 14th
  • BoB Gained – 22nd
  • SG: OTT – 100th
  • SG: T2G – 64th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 36th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent)- 42nd

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 3rd

Last 3 Starts – 3rd // 58th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 3rd // 58th // MC // 54th // MC // 52nd

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // 34th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Very on brand for me to see one good tournament by Sam Ryder and then go all in, but he gained eleven (11!) strokes on APP last week en route to a T3 finish… per the great Pat Mayo, this course is semi-similar to PGA National, just easier scoring and a little more water, which is where Ryder finished T8 earlier this year… I much prefer him on easy scoring, birdie fests which is exactly what we should get

Fades

1) Maverick McNealy ($8,400) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 62nd
  • BoB Gained – 21st
  • SG: OTT – 9th
  • SG: T2G – 24th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 60th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 15th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 18th

Last 3 Starts – 18th // 21st // 30th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 18th // 21st // 30th // 20th // MC // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I love McNealy in general, but what I don’t love is his expected ownership and price point this week as yes, he has succeeded in easy scoring conditions and is in fine form, but I think I would prefer lower-owned guys that I think have equal or more upside at the same or lower priced; I think McNealy is going to grab a win sooner rather than later but this week I prefer the likes of Keegan/List/Schwartzel around him

2) Chris Kirk ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 42nd
  • BoB Gained – 64th
  • SG: OTT – 101st
  • SG: T2G – 30th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 1st
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 59th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 12th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 12th // MC // 26th // 69th // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 41st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I was a little bit surprised to see projected ownership for Kirk this week as yes he’s been playing well and his last start before the Open was a T12 at Rocket Mortgage; however, if he’s going to be popular, his game is more volatile than I’d like as he can get a hot putter and his irons have been great, but he’s lost strokes OTT in 4 of his last 5 and when he gets in a funk, he can make a ton of bogeys FAST

Favorite Pivot

1) Adam Schenk ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards) – 31st
  • BoB Gained – 4th
  • SG: OTT – 19th
  • SG: T2G – 40th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 39th
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on Bent) – 7th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 15th

Last 3 Starts – 15th // 4th // 41st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 15th // 4th // 41st // MC // 68th // 65th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 41 // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I play Schenk most weeks in much stronger fields at a sub 7k price so why not go all in at 7400 in a weak field??? Schenk has gained strokes OTT in 6 straight events, gained on APP in 5 of his last 7, and is coming off finishes of T4/T15 at birdie fests similar to this event… in fact, Schenk ranks 10th in my course fit ranks this week and I love him as a great value option in all formats

OTHERS I LIKE: Charl Schwartzel // Luke List // Troy Merritt // Jhonattan Vegas // Brandon Hagy // Brian Stuard // Scott Stallings // Bo Hoag // Ryan Armour

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) K.H. Lee ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Slim picks down in this sub 7k range but KH Lee while not exactly “in form” does have a win in his last few starts, has shown an ability to score in his short career on TPC tracks, and has gained strokes OTT in 3 straight events… plus coming off some BABY SWAG

2) Michael Gligic ($6,300) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Ranks 69th in the field in SG: APP (nice), 21st in SG: Putting, and it’s a very small sample but has played much better in the weaker fields like this one this year with a T4 at Corales and T19 last week at the Barbasol

3) Michael Gellerman ($6,100) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Ranks 51st in the field in SG: T2G, 17th in SG: APP, 64th in SG: OTT and is near the min price; again a small sample, but Gellerman has gained over 4 strokes on approach in 3 of his last 4 with the 4th being a gain of 3.5 strokes on APP so if he could just roll some putts he could be a HUGE value at 6100

Cash Game Options

1) Tony Finau

2) Patrick Reed

3) Matthew Wolff

4) Emiliano Grillo

5) Bubba Watson

6) Keegan Bradley

7) Doug Ghim

8) Hank Lebioda

9) Patrick Rodgers

10) Jhonattan Vegas

11) Troy Merritt

12) Adam Schenk

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History

  1. Louis Oosthuizen
  2. Patrick Reed
  3. Hank Lebioda
  4. Dustin Johnson
  5. Luke List
  6. Emiliano Grillo
  7. Patrick Rodgers
  8. Steve Stricker
  9. Bubba Watson
  10. Adam Schenk
  11. Ryan Armour
  12. Charl Schwartzel
  13. Keegan Bradley
  14. Sergio Garcia
  15. Tony Finau
  16. Cameron Tringale
  17. Ryan Moore
  18. Rickie Fowler
  19. Jhonattan Vegas
  20. Cameron Davis

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

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