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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson DraftKings Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: TPC Craig Ranch, Dallas, TX

Fast Facts

  • Par 72; 7468 yards
  • Bentgrass greens (around 11-12 on the stimp)
  • Larger greens (6800 sq. ft. on average)
  • Short rough with short Par 5s and longer Par 4s
  • Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
  • Average Cut: N/A
  • Holes with Water Hazards: 13
  • Wind is course’s main defense but expect a birdie fest
  • Corollary Courses: Glen Abbey, Liberty National, Muirfield, Old White TPC, TPC Summerlin, TPC Four Seasons
  • Top Course Fit Targets: Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, James Hahn, Ryan Palmer, Sebastian Munoz

Course and Weather Notes: We get a new course on tour after Trinity Forest was scrapped and we get a course that upon first glance seems like it favors bombers, it should be a birdie fest, and it will be imperative, like it is every week, to be on point with the irons and especially the long irons. I think there will be a ton of narratives all over the place, but I will be putting a premium on SG: OTT with an importance on distance but not completely as I don’t want guys who spray it off the tee. I want guys who score on Par 5s which seems obvious but with all of them under 570 yards, i.e., gettable in two by most of the field, I want guys who can take advantage of those and who excel from 175+ yards for not only the Par-5s but for the six Par-4s that are 450 yards or longer and 3 Par 3s that are 200 yards or longer. With so many unknowns about the course and “course fit” I think it’s a good week to avoid the “super chalk” especially the cheaper under 8k and under 7k chalk and with a full field and only T65 and ties making the cut, the 6/6 % should be low per usual.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: Ball Striking
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
  • SG: OTT
  • Birdie or Better Gained
  • SG: Par 5s
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards
  • SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Jon Rahm ($11,000) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 3rd SG: BS/5th SG: APP/4th SG: OTT/19th BoB/12th SG: Par 5s/53rd SG: Par 4s/62nd SG: P

Form: MC/7th/5th/5th/9th/32nd/5th

Course Fit Rank: 5th

Notes: I clearly cursed Rahm last week saying how great he’s been with no missed cuts but his ball striking/T2G game was great as always, he just struggled with the putter and around the greens on Day 1 that was hard to fight back from… still probably the best play in the field

2) Will Zalatoris ($9,700) Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 16th SG: BS/4th SG: APP/64th SG: OTT/9th BoB/15th SG: Par 5s/78th SG: Par 4s/65th SG: P

Form: MC/42nd/2nd/28th/21st/10th/22nd/15th

Course Fit Rank: 102nd

Notes: I will absolutely play a narrative with Zalatoris as he said he’s been playing this course consistently since he was 12 and knows how it should play… he had a poor putting week last week and a terrible OTT week after a grueling Masters, but we all know how good he is and I love him to post yet another high finish in his young career

Fades

1) Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,500) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 22nd SG: BS/84th SG: APP/5th SG: OTT/11th BoB/22nd SG: Par 5s/1st SG: Par 4s/2nd SG: P

Form: 4th/34th/18th/9th/10th/11th/5th

Course Fit Rank: 28th

Notes: Fitz really doesn’t struggle playing longer courses despite not being known as a “bomber” but I’m fading due to ownership and the fact that he’s lost strokes on APP in his last 3 measured events but has just made any and all putts that has propelled him to the top… if the flat stick goes cold, he could be a bust in this range

2) Sam Burns ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 26th SG: BS/22nd SG: APP/81st SG: OTT/2nd BoB/4th SG: Par 5s/28th SG: Par 4s/15th SG: P

Form: 1st/4th/39th/MC/MC/MC/3rd

Course Fit Rank: 132nd

Notes: I really like Burns and his high birdie upside is solid for this course, but I would just prefer others in this price range and I don’t expect him to gain over 9 strokes putting again like he did in route to his first win a few weeks ago

Favorite Pivot

1) Sergio Garcia ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 5th SG: BS/49th SG: APP/9th SG: OTT/24th BoB/7th SG: Par 5s/38th SG: Par 4s/148th SG: P

Form: MC/MC/5th/9th/32nd/MC

Course Fit Rank: 16th

Notes: Great Texas player, one of the top ball strikers in the field, and his “best” (relative obviously since he sucks at putting everywhere) is on Bentgrass greens… Sergio has more distance than people realize and has the ability to get really hot as long as he’s not missing every 3-footer

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Charl Schwartzel ($8,100) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 29th SG: BS/20th SG: APP/71st SG: OTT/56th BoB/66th SG: Par 5s/36th SG: Par 4s/94th SG: P

Form: 14th/21st/2nd/26th/69th/53rd/MC/MC/62nd

Course Fit Rank: 10th

Notes: Charl really has turned his form around as he’s made his last 5 cuts in a row and has gained 4.6 and 6.8 on APP in his last 2 starts; historically a strong putter, if he keeps up this ball striking and returns to more normal form with the flatstick, I think he’s a very sneaky play with T10 or better upside

2) Talor Gooch ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 14th SG: BS/10th SG: APP/55th SG: OTT/59th BoB/51st SG: Par 5s/67th SG: Par 4s/57th SG: P

Form: 26th/MC/17th/56th/46th/5th/43rd/12th

Course Fit Rank: 121st

Notes: Surprised to see him chalky as he’s one of my favorite plays this week but he’s great on Bentgrass, has gained on OTT in his last 3 events and his best ranks, per his stats, are ball striking and long approaches… I think he’s underpriced and has win equity

3) Tom Hoge ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 8th SG: BS/1st SG: APP/47th SG: OTT/10th BoB/43rd SG: Par 5s/90th SG: Par 4s/103rd SG: P

Form: MC/MC/MC/25th/12th/MC/22nd/MC/52nd

Course Fit Rank: 26th

Notes: Man if Hoge could putt… he’s gained OTT in his last 4 events, has gained on APP in his last 10 events, and gained T2G in 7 of his last 10; he has the distance, he can make birdies in bunches and if he can just not lost 3 or more strokes on the greens, he has upside at this very cheap price

Fades

1) Thomas Pieters ($8,600) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 21st SG: BS/24th SG: APP/28th SG: OTT/18th BoB/65th SG: Par 5s/18th SG: Par 5s/96th SG: P

Form: 8th/13th/13th/15th

Course Fit Rank: 71st

Notes: I like Thomas Pieters but I think his stat ranks in any model/ranks, etc. are skewed because he plays almost exclusively on the Euro Tour and then opposite field events and majors… his last 6 tournaments with SG data on FantasyNational are the Corales, Puerto Rico Open, the US Open in 2020, the British Open in 2019, the US Open in 2019, and the PGA Championship in 2019… he hits it a long way but also makes a ton of big numbers… I’ll pass at that ownership

2) Doug Ghim ($7,500) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 1st SG: BS/2nd SG: APP/20th SG: OTT/39th BoB/85th SG: Par 5s/12th SG: Par 4s/138th SG: P

Form: MC/11th/33rd/44th/MC/29th/36th/MC

Course Fit Rank: 55th

Notes: Ghim ranks well in just about everything and I know I often write about a guy just needing a putter one week (Hoge) but at one of the chalkiest plays of the slate AND a horrendous putter week in and week out, it’s an easy fade for me…

Favorite Pivot

1) Matt Kuchar ($8,200) Projected Ownership: 5%

Key Stats: 55th SG: BS/80th SG: APP/86th SG: OTT/49th BoB/31st SG: Par 5s/99th SG: Par 4s/24th SG: P

Form: 18th/MC/12th/3rd/MC/44th/MC

Course Fit Rank: 2nd

Notes: I almost never play Kuchar and he had a rough go of it for a while but I think he will come in low owned and he’s gained strokes on APP and T2G in 3 of his last 4 measured events, he rates out well per his course fit, and despite not being the longest hitter, he scores well on Par 5s and can super-hot with the putter

OTHERS I LIKE: Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Luke List, Aaron Wise, Brandt Snedeker, Jhonattan Vegas, Wyndham Clark

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) K.H. Lee ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Very volatile but has made his last 5 cuts and has gained strokes T2G in his all 4 of those stroke play events; his putter is his biggest weakness by far but as we saw at the Waste Management, when he finished T2, if he can just putt average (gained 0.9 strokes putting), he can rack up birdies

2) Roger Sloan ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Purely a high upside play as Sloan can get very hot but also extremely cold… his best putting surface is Bent and while no tremendous finishes, he’s gained on APP in 6 of his last 7 measured events, gained T2G in 9 of his last 10 measured events and like KH Lee just needs to putt semi-average to pay off this price tag

3) Kris Ventura ($6,400) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Ranks 33rd in SG: Par 5s, 41st SG: OTT, 32nd SG: P on Bent, and 28th in BoB; however, he also ranks 87th in SG: BS, 112th in SG: APP, and 104th on SG: Par 4s from 450-500 so at his price we don’t need him to do a ”ton” but he’s definitely risky

Cash Game Options

1) Bryson DeChambeau

2) Jon Rahm

3) Jordan Spieth

4) Will Zalatoris

5)  Scottie Scheffler

6) Talor Gooch

7) Brandt Snedeker

8) Jhonattan Vegas

9) Tom Hoge

10) Wyndham Clark

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course Fit this week

  1. Jon Rahm
  2. Jordan Spieth
  3. Bryson DeChambeau
  4. Matt Fitzpatrick
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Scottie Scheffler
  7. Brooks Koepka
  8. Daniel Berger
  9. Sergio Garcia
  10. Will Zalatoris
  11. Lee Westwood
  12. Ryan Palmer
  13. Si Woo Kim
  14. Luke List
  15. Marc Leishman
  16. Matt Kuchar
  17. Jhonattan Vegas
  18. Sam Burns
  19. Thomas Pieters
  20. Talor Gooch

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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