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Course: Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, MS

Fast Facts

• Par 72; 7461 yards
• Average-sized Bermuda greens (6200 sq. ft. on average)
• 4 Par 5s (3 of 4 reachable by most of the field)
• Easy to hit greens (about 70% on average) with harder to hit fairways (54% vs. TOUR avg. of approx. 62%)
• Expected Cut: -1 or -2
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses: Golf Club of Houston, East Lake, Copperhead, Quail Hollow, TPC San Antonio, TPC Southwind, Sedgefield CC
• Top Course Fit Targets: Sergio Garcia, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Luke List, Corey Conners, Charley Hoffman, Keith Mitchell, Denny McCarthy, Aaron Wise, Kevin Streelman

Course and Weather Notes: After an extensive offseason of 2 weeks, we are BACK for the 2021-2022 PGA TOUR season! Normally an alternate field event, we get a weak but not terrible field considering the Ryder Cup was this past week and an interesting course that yields plenty of scoring but does not usually turn into a MEGA birdie-fest (i.e. -25 or better) with an average winning score in the range of -18 to -20. While the greens are on the easier side to hit (around 70% compared to the TOUR average of around 65%), if you are missing the greens, there are some tough up and downs, not to mention, if you’re scrambling this week instead of making birdies, you’re probably missing the cut anyways. I will be focused on BoB, Par 5 scoring as there are 4 Par 5s in which 3 are reachable and one of them (8^th hole) plays very difficult year after year in terms of birdie rate. With many players having taken some time off, the field strength low, and the overall volatility of winners over the years, I think it’s worth taking some more risk than usual in GPPs and trying to target the “ceiling” players over the “safe” cut-makers as the fall tour events tend to be wonkier than events played starting in January. Good luck this week and here’s to a great season!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• SG: Par 5s
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Sungjae Im ($10,300) → Projected Ownership: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 9^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 29^th
• BoB Gained – 16^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 28^th
• SG: Par 5s – 30^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 49^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 20^th

Last 3 Starts – 20^th // 3^rd // 16^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 20^th // 3^rd // 16^th // 24^th // 46^th // 22^nd      

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 28^th // 2^nd // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: Was ho-hum at the TOUR Champ but I think Sungjae has been rounding back into the form of his previous 2 years… his best putting surface by far is Bermuda, before the TOUR Champ he had gained strokes on APP in 8 straight events, had made 8 straight cuts, and has 5 T25s or better in his last 9,  including a 3^rd at the BMW Championship… maybe my OWN% prediction is off but I think he could go overlooked as people look to pay up for Burns/Zalatoris/Sergio over Sungjae

2) Seamus Power ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 16^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 25^th
• BoB Gained – 30^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 55^th
• SG: Par 5s – 48^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 27^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 31^st

Last 3 Starts – 31^st // 60^th // 1^st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 31^st // 60^th // 1^st // 8^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 19^th // 18^th // 29^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 49^th

Notes: Thought his form would cool way off after his first win and while his finishes weren’t great after, he’s made 11 straight cuts with SEVEN (7!) T25s or better in that span with a win, 2 T8s, and a T9… in 4 tries, Power has 2 T20s and I would consider him a much better player than even 2 years ago and I love the potential leverage here as Hoffman soaks up a lot of ownership right above him

Fades

1) Sergio Garcia ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 14^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 51^st
• BoB Gained – 10^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 2^nd
• SG: Par 5s – 37^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 74^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 14^th

Last 3 Starts – 14^th // 6^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 14^th // 6^th // MC // 26^th // 25^th // 19^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 1^st

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: Sergio looked awesome at the Ryder Cup as he’s clearly one of the better match play players of all time; however, I think many will see that and see that he won here last year and lock him in, causing what I think is much too higher ownership at a high price point… Sergio’s form isn’t bad but as one of the higher priced players he’ll need to be locked in with the putter (unlikely) and come somewhere in the Top 5 or so to hit value

2) Cameron Davis ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 79^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 105^th
• BoB Gained – 12^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 67^th
• SG: Par 5s – 18^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 42^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 1^st  

Last 3 Starts – 1^st // 14^th // 59^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 29^th // 31^st // 60^th // 28^th // 55^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 6^th // 28^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 82^nd  

Notes: I love Cam Davis as a player, but since his win at the Rocket Mortgage, his best finish is T28 and he’s lost strokes T2G/OTT/APP in 3 of his last 5 while also seeing his hot putter cool way off… his course history isn’t bad with back to back made cuts and a T6 last year, but I think with his distance and strong Par 5 scoring he goes over owned and I prefer guys like Munoz/Streelman/Power in a similar price range at lower ownership (I also believe those guys have a similar ceiling/range of outcomes)

Favorite Pivot

1) Kevin Streelman ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 36^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 23^rd
• BoB Gained – 23^rd
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 106^th
• SG: Par 5s – 92^nd
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 65^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 52^nd

Last 3 Starts – 52^nd // 64^th // 7^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 52^nd // 64^th // 7^th // 19^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 4^th // MC // 10^th // 18^th // MC    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 9^th

Notes: Coming off a tremendous year, I love Streelman even at nearly 9k as I think that will lower his ownership along with his lack of distance and Par 5 scoring… looking back to last season, Stewart Cink won twice and Phil won a major… the “old” guys can still compete, or at the least, provide DraftKings scoring value! Streelman has a T18/T10/T4 in 3 of his last 4 starts at CC of Jackson and if the putter can be average, he has T10 upside or better

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) C.T. Pan ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 6^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 21^st
• BoB Gained – 87^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 19^th
• SG: Par 5s – 104^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 101^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 6^th

Last 3 Starts – 6^th // MC // 29^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 6^th // MC // 29^th // 3^rd // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 12^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 98^th

Notes: I haven’t played CT in quite a while as he is a very poor putter and his form wasn’t great the last season for the most part… while this price may seem a little high, I like targeting CT in large field GPPs as his range of outcomes is wider than most, when he puts it all together, he finds himself at the top as he did 2 weeks ago with a T6 finish… Pan finished T12 here last season, he’s gained strokes T2G in his last 4 measured events and quietly ranks 6^th in the field in SG: T2G, 21^st in SG: APP, and 19^th in SG: OTT

2) Scott Stallings ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 88^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 66^th
• BoB Gained – 40^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 30^th
• SG: Par 5s – 78^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 6^th

Last 3 Starts – 6^th // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 6^th // MC // MC // 18^th // 39^th // 55^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 6^th // 28^th // 39^th // 43^rd // MC // 28^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 36^th

Notes: Stallings’ stats are interesting as historically he presents a bad short game but carries a lot of DK scoring upside as his distance gives him a lot of eagle looks… this week, he ranks 4^th in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda and while I wish his APP numbers were better (gained 2 weeks ago, but lost 3 tournaments before that), he has gained OTT in 7 straight events and while last year was his best finish by far, he’s played here 6 times and made 5/6 cuts with 3 T30 finishes or better

3) Luke List ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 20^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 43^rd
• BoB Gained – 106^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 8^th
• SG: Par 5s – 34^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 133^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 51^st

Last 3 Starts – 51^st // 70^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 51^st // 70^th // MC // 58^th // 5^th // 4^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // MC // 2^nd // 28^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 4^th  

Notes: Anyone who’s played DFS golf for a few years knows the story with List… elite ball striker/T2G game and just a horrendous putter, which is shown recently as he’s lost strokes putting in 5 straight… but there is hope as he’s only 7500, should be well under 10% owned, and has gained strokes T2G in 6 straight events, gained OTT in 5 of his last 6, and does have a T2 finish here back in 2019… putter will probably let him down, but it’s worth nothing he ranks 4^th in my course fit ranks this week

Fades

1) Doug Ghim ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 22^nd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 65^th
• BoB Gained – 8^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 10^th
• SG: Par 5s – 49^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 121^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 31^st // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 31^st // MC // MC // 18^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 23^rd // MC // 71^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 93^rd

Notes: I usually fade Ghim and this week is no different… always more popular than I think and while he’s normally great ball striker, he’s lost strokes on APP in his last 4 events, has missed 3 of his last 4 cuts, and think he’s overpriced compared to others around him…

2) Matthias Schwab ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 57^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 85^th
• BoB Gained – 133^rd
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 69^th (nice)
• SG: Par 5s – 65^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 134^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 12^th

Last 3 Starts – 12^th // 27^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 12^th // 27^th // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 113^th

Notes: Coming off the Korn Ferry, I like Schwab long term but he’s getting some buzz and my main issues are 1) there is very limited data so I can’t discern if this price is right and 2) from what I do see, his short game is lacking and his APP game can get hot but is ultimately inconsistent… if he’s going to be owned at 7% or more, I’m fine waiting till we see more rounds and collect more stats on him

Favorite Pivot

1) Lucas Glover ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 2%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 84^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 36^th
• BoB Gained – 41^st
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance) – 112^th
• SG: Par 5s – 122^nd
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 125^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 38^th

Last 3 Starts – 38^th // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 38^th // MC // MC // 57^th // MC // 1^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – MC // MC // 14^th // 5^th // 39^th // 22^nd   

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 18^th  

Notes: Every time I write up Glover it doesn’t feel great and he lets me down a lot… but he’s played this course a lot with 3 T22s or better in 6 tries, and while he’s not popping in stat models as he normally does, he ranks 18^th in my course fit model, he won’t be owned by anyone and while he’s missed a few cuts recently, he’s only 6 starts removed from a long-awaited return to the winner’s circle (10 years!)

OTHERS I LIKE: Aaron Wise // Patton Kizzire // Keith Mitchell // Tom Hoge // Scott Piercy

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brian Stuard ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Not in elite form but we have a new season, most guys have had a few weeks off and before 2 MC (1 in the FedEx cup playoffs), Stuard had 4 straight T15s including a 6^th and an 8^th… great short iron player, strong Bermuda putter, and ranks 14^th in the field in BoB and 2^nd in SG: Putting

2) Ryan Moore ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: I’ve been fading Moore for a long time here as he hasn’t looked great but his stats have gotten better, as he’s 15^th in the field T2G, 40^th in SG: APP, 38^th SG: Par 5s, and 31^st in SG: OTT… at sub 7k, I think he has the upside as well as tiny ownership… no course history, but worth noting he ranks 2^nd overall in course fit this week

3) Adam Schenk ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: I keep playing Schenk and he usually lets me down… so we’ll go right back! Schenk is only 6700 and ranks 7^th in SG: Par 5s, 14^th in SG: Putting, and has made all 4 cuts at CC of Jackson with back-to-back T40s and a 7^th in 2019… at this price, we just want a made cut and we have great value

Cash Game Options

1) Sungjae Im

2) Mito Pereira

3) Charley Hoffman

4) Seamus Power

5) Scott Stallings

6) Patrick Rodgers

7) Luke List

8) Lucas Glover

9) Brian Stuard

10) Adam Schenk

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 7% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 13% Course History

1. Sungjae Im
2. Corey Conners
3. Sam Burns
4. Sergio Garcia
5. Seamus Power
6. Mito Pereira
7. Patrick Rodgers
8. Harold Varner III
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Charley Hoffman
11. Will Zalatoris
12. Aaron Wise
13. Sebastian Munoz
14. T. Pan
15. Cameron Tringale
16. Luke List
17. Scott Stallings
18. Kevin Streelman
19. Roger Sloan
20. Scott Piercy

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!