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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 Sony Open

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Courses: Waialae Country Club

Fast Facts

  • Par 70, 7044 yards
  • Bermuda greens; average speed around 11-11.5 on the stimp
  • Field: 144 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
  • Main course defense is wind (normal winner around -22 to -24; last year was -11)
  • Average Cut Even or -1
  • Hitting fairways is key (52% fairways hit on average compared to 62% TOUR average)
  • Corollary Courses: East Lake/Memorial Park/Seaside (RSM Classic)/Sedgefield/TPC Southwind/Harbour Town GL
  • Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson/Jim Furyk/Chez Reavie/Billy Horschel/Sergio Garcia/Kevin Kisner/Sungjae Im/Zach Johnson/Charles Howell III/Daniel Berger

 

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: Approach (emphasis on 125-175)
  • Fairways Gained
  • BoB Gained
  • SG: T2G
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
  • Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($11,100) Projected Ownership: 27%

Key Stats: 24th SG: APP/22nd Fways Gained/33rd BoB/13th T2G/27th SG: P/19th Scrambling

Form: 17th/37th/10th/17th

Course History: 3rd/4th/13th/13th/13th/20th/38th/46th

Notes: The best in the field by a pretty decent margin and the ownership should follow… always tough to pay up to 11k+ in cash but Webb has been consistent as ever here with 6 straight T20s, he thrives on Par 70 Bermuda green tracks, and struck it great last week with the irons, just lost a ton of strokes OTT

2) Daniel Berger ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 24%

Key Stats: 15th SG: APP/55th Fways Gained/14th BoB/24th T2G/18th SG: P/20th Scrambling

Form: 10th/23rd/17th

Course History: 38th/14th/45th/42nd/13th

Notes: Some of the most consistent ranks among my key stats this week, has made 8 straight cuts, has 8 T25s or better in his last 10 starts, and while he hasn’t lit up this course, I think he comes in with great form and although no T10s at Waialae, he hasn’t missed any cuts either; great cash play

Fades

1) Joaquin Niemann ($10,400) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 28th SG: APP/58th Fways Gained/1st BoB/3rd T2G/37th SG: P/63rd Scrambling

Form: 2nd/23rd/44th/17th

Course History: 57th

Notes: I really like Niemann and he could come in lower owned than I think, but he feels overpriced to me compared to the names around him as I would rather play Morikawa/Hideki/Berger and although he comes in hot after making a whopping 31 birdies last week, this course is quite different

2) Abraham Ancer ($9,400) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 77th SG: APP/8th Fways Gained/23rd BoB/59th T2G/10th SG: P/43rd Scrambling

Form: 17th/12th/13th/35th

Course History: 38th/29th/MC

Notes: Not sure I buy the Ancer hype this week… last week was the first tournament he gained on APP since September and he lost over 2 OTT, lost over 5 T2G, and did almost all his work with the putter; at this price, I want more consistency and similar to Niemann, I much prefer the guys around Ancer

 Favorite Pivot

1) Adam Scott ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 8th SG: APP/126th Fways Gained/22nd BoB/41st T2G/49th SG: P/112th Scrambling

Form: 21st/34th/32nd

Course History: MC/56th/8th/MC

Notes: For starters, I saw Adam Scott is back to the broomstick putter this week… so he’s back in play! In typical Scott fashion last week, he gained 6.8 strokes on APP (3rd best in the field), 3.4 T2G and then lost over 3 putting and over 4 around the green; he will always be a bad putter, but on a course that rewards longer approaches, and has much smaller greens, I’ll take Scott at very low ownership and a fair price

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Russell Henley ($8,700) Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 1st SG: APP/6th Fways Gained/51st BoB/1st T2G/62nd SG: P/2nd Scrambling

Form: MC/30th/29th/4th

Course History: MC/66th/MC/13th/MC/17th/51st/1st

Notes: My favorite pick in this field as similar to English, Henley had a fantastic 2020 but couldn’t capture a win as his normally strong Bermuda putting went by the wayside; his form is iffy, but it’s also been a long break and I love how consistent his APP/T2G game has been for many months now

2) Russell Knox ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 14th SG: APP/23rd Fways Gained/71st BoB/23rd T2G/127th SG: P/55th Scrambling

Form: 23rd/MC/15th/16th

Course History: 32nd/43rd/10th/11th/MC/13th/MC/MC/MC

Notes: I like how Knox sets up for this course as he’s had success at Harbour Town GL (former winner); his form and putting are… bad; however, he has gained on APP in his last 4 tournaments, T2G in his last 5 and if he can just putt average, he can smash his value at only 7400

3) Scott Piercy ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 19th SG: APP/56th Fways Gained/36th BoB/11th T2G/90th SG: P/10th Scrambling

Form: 40th/18th/32nd/14th

Course History: 45th/33rd/25th/57th/13th/2nd/MC/15th/23rd

Notes: Piercy is pretty much a way worse Hideki/Scott/etc where he’s great T2G, as he’s gained over 4 strokes T2G in each of his last 3 tournaments, is a decent ARG player, but just a garbage putter; ultimate high risk/high reward as he will implode on his first 9 and miss the cut, or he can rack up birdies

Fades

1) Marc Leishman ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 86th SG: APP/83rd Fways Gained/136th BoB/84th T2G/128th SG: P/52nd Scrambling

Form: 24th/MC/13th/70th

Course History: 28th/3rd/47th/20th/28th/37th/5th/9th/27th

Notes: I simply don’t understand the love for Leishman this week… yes, his course history is solid, but his form for nearly a year now has been horrific, his stats are terrible, and although you could bet a little bit on his Hawaii history, I would much rather play almost any player similarly priced to him

2) Cameron Davis ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 81st SG: APP/109th Fways Gained/6th BoB/73rd T2G/34th SG: P/91st Scrambling

Form: MC/68th

Course History: 9th/MC

Notes: I love Cam Davis, but he’s fallen out of some form, and his main weapon with the driver is distance, not accuracy, as shown by his 109th rank in the field in Fairways Gained; if we find out there’s major wind, he gets a small bump, but Bermuda greens are his worst surface, he’s lost strokes on APP in 2 of his last 3, lost T2G in 3 straight, and I think could be sneaky high owned in the lower 7k range

Favorite Pivot

1) Branden Grace ($7,100) Projected Ownership: 2%

Key Stats: 38th SG: APP/40th Fways Gained/58th BoB/64th T2G/123rd SG: P/128th Scrambling

Form: 8th/49th/30th/MC/40th

Course History: 13th (2017)

Notes: Complete dart here but I don’t think anyone will own him and if nothing else at least he’s been solid on the comp courses (former winner at Harbour Town GL); his form is blah, but he did have an 8th place in his most recent start on the Euro and he’s at least played this course before; if the conditions are poor, he could win at a lower score like -12 and if he makes the cut, the upside is huge at what should be 1-2% owned

OTHERS I LIKE: Kevin Kisner/Patton Kizzire/Chez Reavie/Matthew NeSmith/J.T. Poston/Brandt Snedeker

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Doug Ghim ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 9%

Quick Hits: May be one of the more popular sub 7k plays but has great stats, ranking 8th in the field in T2G, 6th in SG: APP, and 8th in BoB

2) Brian Gay ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: A large cap between them but he did win in his 2nd to last start and is one of the better putters on TOUR; 33rd in BoB, Top 50 in Fairways Gained and Scrambling; 4 T25s here in 9 starts

3) Adam Schenk ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Was super chalk for a while in swing season in the 8k range while he was riding a long made cut streak but now cheap and has the best cut probability in this range + T20 upside; Top 50 in the field in T2G/APP/BoB/SG: Putting on Bermuda

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson                          

2) Daniel Berger

3) Kevin Kisner

4) Russell Henley

5) Charles Howell III

6) Brian Harman

7) Sebastian Munoz

8) Russell Knox

9) Scott Piercy

10) Charley Hoffman

11) Doug Ghim

12) Adam Schenk

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History Rank

  1. Harris English
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Kevin Kisner
  4. Russell Henley
  5. Cameron Smith
  6. Daniel Berger
  7. Ryan Palmer
  8. Zach Johnson
  9. Sungjae Im
  10. Joaquin Niemann
  11. Scott Piercy
  12. Collin Morikawa
  13. Sebastian Munoz
  14. Abraham Ancer
  15. Emiliano Grillo
  16. Hideki Matsuyama
  17. Kyle Stanley
  18. Brian Harman
  19. Patton Kizzire
  20. Talor Gooch

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

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