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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com. Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com. Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter.

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Courses: TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, AZ

Fast Facts

  • Par 71; 7261 yards at semi-altitude
  • Over seeded larger than average Bermuda greens (7000 sq. ft. on avg.)
  • Field: 132 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
  • Average Cut: Even
  • Emphasis on Par 4 scoring, with all Par 4s over 400 yards except 1 (Drivable 17th)
  • Driving Distance about 15 yards longer than TOUR average (295 compared to 280)
  • Corollary Courses: Harbour Town GL, Port Royal/Sea Island (Seaside), Sedgefield, TPC Southwind
  • Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Brooks Koepka, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, Daniel Berger, Denny McCarthy, Billy Horschel, Ryan Moore, Brian Gay

Course and Weather Notes: It’s a shame that we don’t get to listen to one of the best, if not THE best, crowds of the year down in Scottsdale as the 16th is some of the best entertainment all year on TOUR, but nevertheless, we get a great field for Super Bowl weekend at one of the better back nines for drama before settling in to watch the Chiefs and Bucs go at it. This course has trouble lurking as 6 holes have water, but present great risk/reward as all Par 5s are gettable in 2 shots (albeit with water surrounding) before we get to the short Par 3 16th that should play much less stressful this year with less crowds, the famous drivable Par 4 17th, and the tough finishing 18th hole. I think course history is definitely in play but I would mainly use it as a separator as the field, at least to me, seems stronger than year’s past so while I like a certain player pool of guys in the 9k and above range, you can make a case for really anyone up there as they all possess substantial win equity. Target strong mid-iron players as all Par 4s with the exception of the 17th are over 400 yards, strong Bermuda grass putters, and maybe mix in those desert golf guys if you’re really splitting hairs! Onto the picks…

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: Approach (emphasis on 125-175)
  • SG: OTT
  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: T2G
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
  • SG: Par 4s (emphasis on 400-450)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Xander Schauffele ($11,000) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 7th SG: APP/11th SG: OTT/7th BoB/6th T2G/2nd SG: P/6th SG: Par 4s

Form: 2nd/5th/17th

Course History: 16th/10th/17th

Notes: I’m going attach an image below via our partners at FantasyNational because although I am not a huge Xander guy, and almost always get him wrong, he’s playing too well right now to not be rostered heavily until further notice… APP game has been great, 4 Top 5s in his last 6 (excluded TOUR Championship limited field), and has never finished worse than 17th here in 3 tries

2) Daniel Berger ($9,600) Projected Ownership: 25%

Key Stats: 20th SG: APP/35th SG: OTT/5th BoB/26th T2G/12th SG: P/21st SG: Par 4s

Form: 7th/10th/23rd

Course History: 9th/MC/11th/7th/58th/10th

Notes: Should be one of the highest owned of the week, but I love the spot for Berger as he’s a great Bermuda putter (12th in the field), has gained on APP in his last 6 measured tournaments, has made every cut since last July and has finished T10 or better in Scottsdale his last 2 tries

Fades

1) Rory McIlroy ($10,600) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 61st SG: APP/1st SG: OTT/3rd BoB/13th T2G/41st SG: P/22nd SG: Par 4s

Form: 16th/3rd/5th

Course History: None

Notes: This fade is a purely “can’t play” everyone as we’re splitting hairs in a strong field like this one and I prefer Webb for $500 less or going up to Xander for $400 more; Rory is immensely talented, obviously, but his APP game has been average, at least for him, he’s never played this course, and is also coming off of 2 straight tournaments where he was in Abu Dhabi and immediately played Torey the week after, so may be some fatigue

2) Ryan Palmer ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 47th SG: APP/29th SG: OTT/8th BoB/21st T2G/16th SG: P/8th SG: Par 4s

Form: 2nd/41st/4th

Course History: MC/60th/MC/MC/24th/2nd/48th/5th/55th/MC

Notes: Well, I faded Palmer at sub 9k and he burned me so I might as well get burned again! Maybe it’s sticker shock because Palmer has been playing great, but similar to the case with Rory, I would rather play Harris English, Will Zalatoris, etc over him on top of the fact that I think some putter regression is coming as he’s gained in 5 straight tournaments, including 7.8 last week SG: P despite historically being about an average putter at best… plus, course history isn’t great

 Favorite Pivot

1) Harris English ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 50th SG: APP/16th SG: OTT/12th BoB/43rd T2G/9th SG: P/35th SG: Par 4s

Form: MC/32nd/1st/5th/6th

Course History: 16th/MC/MC/57th/3rd/40th/9th/57th/15th

Notes: English hurt me last week, as I presume he did many others, but I’ll chalk it up to golf is a volatile game and he couldn’t recover after an opening round +6 where he couldn’t chip and made 3 doubles… English has still been playing great the last year or so, is terrific on Bermuda greens, and before last week had 4 Top 10s in his previous 6 starts so I’ll take the lower ownership here

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 8th SG: APP/6th SG: OTT/2nd BoB/7th T2G/71st SG: P/3rd SG: Par 4s

Form: 37th/17th/10th/10th

Course History: 45th

Notes: My favorite bet of the week and favorite DFS play of the week (per usual) as he’s such a ball striking machine, gaining T2G, APP, and OTT in 4 straight measured tournaments and while we’re always signing up for poor putting, if he can just be average, like he was at the OHL/RSM, he has Top 10 and higher upside at what I think is much too cheap a price

2) Sam Burns ($7,700) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 54th SG: APP/2nd SG: OTT/21st BoB/8th T2G/32nd SG: P/9th SG: Par 4s

Form: 18th/MC

Course History: MC/MC

Notes: Poor SG: APP last week but he’s “Bermuda Burns” due to his tremendous putting ability on this surface and while the course history lacks, that should hopefully keep ownership down; has a lot of distance, has gained OTT in 10 straight measured tournaments, and I think is a great value for both cash games and GPPs at mid 7k

3) Sebastian Munoz ($7,100) Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 56th SG: APP/51st SG: OTT/50th BoB/44th T2G/102nd SG: P/75th SG: Par 4s

Form: 65th/17th/MC/MC/19th

Course History: 47th

Notes: I’m always contractually obligated to write up Munoz when he’s in the field… last few tournaments he’s been meh as he hasn’t been able to hit a put; however, he gained on APP, OTT, and T2G at Farmers, has gained in SG: OTT in 3 straight, and now that he’s so cheap, if he makes the cut he’s immediately hit some value… love him as a Top 20 bet as well

Fades

1) Gary Woodland ($8,300) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 79th SG: APP/124th SG: OTT/25th BoB/111th T2G/43rd SG: P/62nd SG: Par 4s

Form: 48th/16th/MC/MC

Course History: 40th/7th/1st/MC/33rd/MC/37th/16th/26th/5th

Notes: I felt good about Woodland after the AmEx but last week he showed that he still is struggling off the tee, losing 4.4 strokes and now priced up due to his strong course history, I expect him to be a popular play in all formats and I would rather wait till we see some more consistency

2) Byeong Hun An ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 10th SG: APP/72nd SG: OTT/85th BoB/16th T2G/124th SG: P/90th SG: Par 4s

Form: 75th/8th/MC/MC

Course History: 9th/20th/23rd/6th

Notes: Came into the week wanting to play him, but as the week has progressed, I think he could be some cheap chalk and while he’s usually a ball striking machine, his OTT game has been shakier lately, the putter is still a disaster, and I think he’ll gain even more steam as people see a recent T8 finish along with strong course history… I would prefer Steele/Sabbatini/Huh?!?!?!?!/Norlander in this salary range

Favorite Pivot

1) Chris Kirk ($7,500) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 27th SG: APP/41st SG: OTT/11th BoB/15th T2G/40th SG: P/19th SG: Par 4s

Form: 16th/2nd/46th/18th

Course History: MC/50th/11th/34th/37th/76th/24th/WD/41st

Notes: Never thought I’d be writing up Chris Kirk as a core play in 2021 but he’s been playing great golf for a while now, gaining nearly 5 strokes on APP in 2 straight tournaments, riding a 6 made cut streak, and while his course history isn’t tremendous, I do like that he has a lot of experience and think he’s in a different headspace this year on top of riding great form (3 T18s or better in his last 4)

OTHERS I LIKE: Bubba Watson, Carlos Ortiz, Henrik Norlander, Brendan Steele, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Erik Van Rooyen, Patton Kizzire

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Cameron Tringale ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: A weekly staple for me… been consistent, ranks 23rd T2G, Top 40 in SG: APP/SG: OTT/SG: P on Bermuda, 28th in BoB, 15th in Par 4 scoring and sub 7k… not a ton of upside and course history is horrendous, but we just need a made cut at this price and he can make birdies in bunches

2) Kyle Stanley ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Had a nice T18 finish at the Farmers and only lost 1.1 strokes putting, which is good for him! Course history isn’t great but as always, stats are solid with a 30th rank in T2G, 6th in SG: APP, and Top 50 in SG: OTT and SG: Par 4s

3) Lucas Glover ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Has burned me the last few times I’ve used him so have to go back obviously… 27th T2G, 35th SG: APP, 27th SG: OTT, 45th SG: Par 4s; never know what Glover you’re getting as he’s volatile with 3/5 made cuts in his last 5 with a 5th and 23rd and mixed history with 5/7 made cuts; just need a made cut

4) Sam Ryder ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Fitting that the first week I didn’t play Ryder in a long time he finished T10 at Farmers; super cheap and doesn’t seem like anyone is going after him after the finish, but he ranks 31st in the field in SG: APP, 50th in SG: OTT, 60th in BoB, and 58th in Par 4 scoring… has gained on APP in 3 straight tourneys and Bermuda is the only surface that he gains strokes putting on a per round basis

Cash Game Options

1) Xander Schauffele                    

2) Webb Simpson

3) Hideki Matsuyama

4) Daniel Berger

5) Sungjae Im

6) Will Zalatoris

7) Corey Conners

8) Henrik Norlander

9) Brendan Steele

10) Rory Sabbatini

11) Sebastian Munoz

12) Cameron Tringale

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History Rank

  1. Justin Thomas
  2. Xander Schauffele
  3. Jon Rahm
  4. Ryan Palmer
  5. Harris English
  6. Webb Simpson
  7. Daniel Berger
  8. Sungjae Im
  9. Corey Conners
  10. Rory McIlroy
  11. Chris Kirk
  12. Cameron Tringale
  13. Si Woo Kim
  14. Rory Sabbatini
  15. John Huh
  16. Hideki Matsuyama
  17. Zach Johnson
  18. Billy Horschel
  19. Will Zalatoris
  20. Patton Kizzire

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

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