Weekly Primer: The Honda Classic
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 Honda Classic Recap
Justin Thomas hit an iconic wedge shot on the 18th hole that he almost holed and forced a playoff with Luke List. JT defeated List on the first playoff hole as he hit a 5-wood to the green and then two-putt birdie. List’s shot went wide right into the rough surrounded by trees and the grandstands that left him with a difficult shot. List did manage to hit a great shot to about 25 feet but was not enough to prevail. Alex Noren finished 3rd, Tommy Fleetwood finish 4th and Webb Simpson and Ben An finished tied for 5th.
Course Preview
Dates: February 28-March 3
Where: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Course: PGA National Champion Course
Architect: Tom Fazio and George Fazio (1981); Jack Nicklaus (1992)
Par/Yards: Par 71; 7,345 yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Fairways/Rough: Celebration Bermuda/TifSport Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass
Field: 140 golfers; Top 70 and ties make the cut
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas
Purse: $6,800,000 ($1,224,000 to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 500 points to the winner
Past Champions in Field: Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Rory Sabbatini, Michael Thompson, Russell Henley, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Thomas
Withdrawals: Padraig Harrington and Chris Stroud
The Champions Course played as the second most difficult course last year and the 17th hole played as the most difficult non-major hole last year as well. To say that this course is difficult is an understatement as the cut last year was 5-over par and the cut line is regularly over par. Five of the most difficult holes on the course are on the back nine including the “Bear Trap” is the 15th, 16th, and 17th hole that can derail a good round of golf up to that point. Sub-optimal weather conditions can make this course even more difficult. Water hazards come into play on 14 of the 18 holes and the greens and fairways are guarded by over 70 bunkers. Accuracy and ability to recover are crucial in this great test of golf.
Weather Outlook
Rain may come into play this week as the area has experienced rain this week and there are chances for rain during the tournament days. I still would not anticipate this having a big impact and wind will remain under 10mph. The course may be a little wet and favor some of the longer hitters.
Official World Golf Rankings: OWGR Top 50 in the Field
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- SG: Approach
- SG: Par 4
- Bogey Avoidance
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: Ball Striking
- Proximity
Course History Targets
Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past. It is important to note this week to only take the past two years into consideration since this tournament changed venues starting in 2017.
Recent Performance Targets
Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. Webb Simpson at the Wyndham, Zach Johnson at the John Deere, Jordan Spieth at the Master’s, Bubba Watson at any course that he has won, etc. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
The Picks
There is tremendous value below the $10k range this week. Justin Thomas is the obvious pick in this range as the defending champion and the current title of being the hottest golfer in the world currently with three straight Top 10s. JT is far-and-away the favorite in this field but is also at one of the highest salaries on DraftKings that I have seen in recent history. That being said, his stats, form, and course history all validate a high price tag and a safe pick for cash games in this range.
Also Consider: Sergio Garcia—$10,000
Until he fails me, I will keep rolling out Gary Woodland. His potential ownership may be difficult to predict but his recent form and stats make him a worthy candidate for a roster spot at this salary. I like the length and accuracy off the tee that will be very important. He will also be clubbing down to his 3-wood off the tee for some of these holes where he still has plenty of length and is even more accurate.
Also Consider: Webb Simpson—$9,600
Lucas Glover ranked out surprisingly high in my models and is not someone that I regularly roster. However, the way he rates out is difficult to ignore in my key stats that I am focusing on this week. He also coming off a T-7 finish as well as back-to-back Top 25 finishes in the tournament the last two years. You already know that he doesn’t want to let his wife down, so Glover should have plenty of motivation to post another good finish.
Also Consider: Zach Johnson—$8,700, Scott Piercy—$8,100
Another course where you can club down means another roster spot for Russell Knox. His ability to avoid bogeys will be critical to make the cut and post a good finish. Additionally, his ability to hit greens and gain strokes on approach will also mean that he is avoiding bunkers and water hazards that lead to big numbers for others in the field.
The guy that I am overweight on this week is Jason Kokrak. Ranked out in the top 5 of my model and has plenty of length and great recent form to expect that he will perform well this week he ranks in the Top 10 in all of my key stats for the last 24 rounds except for bogey avoidance. However, if he is hitting greens, gaining proximity, and gaining strokes on approach I would not expect many bogeys form him.
Also Consider: Joaquinn Niemann—$7,600, Kevin Tway—$7,300
My final play is Vaughn Taylor. If you roster JT, Rickie, or Brooks then you will need some salary relief somewhere. He is coming off a Top 10 finish at the Genesis that boasted a much stronger field than this week and ranks 1st in proximity and opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. He is gaining strokes on approach and the way he rates out is hard to beat and a borderline must-play at this salary if you find yourself dipping below $7,000 this week.
Also Consider: Ryan Armour—$6,700, Kevin Streelman—$6,700, Richy Werenski—$6,500
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
