NHL Top Shelf Knucklepuck Daily Notes | Thursday | October 5, 2018 @NotTonyM
Good morning everyone and welcome to volume 2 of the @NotTonyM Top Shelf Knucklepuck! We have just a two game slate with one game featuring two teams that played last night and another featuring two teams from the Left Coast.
Before we jump in, keep in mind that it is only the third day of the 2018-2019 NHL season and I cannot stress enough that you should not play heavy on cash games. It is just not worth it. Hockey is far-and-away the most high-variant sport and it is unnecessarily difficult to predict. Since it is just the third day, there are still teams that have not even hit the ice yet. Teams and coaches are obviously figuring out lines, learning where chemistry exists among teammates, and we (as viewers/data analysts) are working to understand how the data applies. As such, while exploring these murky waters that are clouded by a bunch of data swirling around, it is not safe (nor wise) to play cash heavy. Rest assured, I will continue to dominate this sport as I have since NHL DFS began.
Last side note – if you are a Core Plays subscriber, you should play all of my lineups. I set my player exposure and the only way you can get the player exposure that I want is by playing all of the lineups. Last night, FD6 was the bigger winner that finished at the top of GPPs. The optimal missed by about 5 points. The difference in cash was that I went Matt Gryzelcyk over Zdeno Chara on FD. Chara was the easy plug on DK. You do not have to play my work heavy, but you should throw something on each LU, including the Slack Bonus LUs.
OK, let’s have a quick look at the games. Thanks for bearing with me through that explanation.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are the heaviest Vegas favorite and the line is sitting at -150 with an over/under of 6. Columbus also has the highest implied goal total of 3.3.
Meanwhile the Los Angeles Kings host the San Jose Sharks at the Staples Center as slight favorites although the game may end up as a pick ‘em. It should be noted that the line has dropped 19 points away from the Kings thus making the Sharks -110 favorites. This game carries a 5.5 over/under with the Sharks actually have a slight implied goal total example.
The chalk stack tonight has got to be the Blue Jackets top unit consisting of Artemi-Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Cam Atkinson. Atkinson was a cash game play for us last night and came through with an early goal. The home team always gets the last line change and Dubois’s line will get favorite matchups throughout. I do think that Josh Anderson and Nick Foligno are interesting tournament plays as each skates on the team’s top line. With Seth Jones out for 4-6 weeks, Zach Werenski will get as much ice time as he can handle and he is easily the top play at the position. Last night he saw over 28 minutes on the ice and pulled the trigger 7 times. Sergei Bobrovsky is the chalk goaltender choice.
If you want to play the contrarian on the two-game slate, which may not be a bad idea, you should get exposure to the Hurricanes top power play unit consisting of Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal (my favorite play from this team) and Teuvo Teravainen.
In the other game, I actually think the San Jose Sharks (assuming the Vegas line stays the same) will go under-owned as people do love playing the Los Angeles Kings at home where they have historically played great hockey. If you have Sharks exposure, you need to find a way to roster the team’s top power play unit (which is a mix of the team’s first and second lines). That PP unit is Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Tomas Hertl and then Brent Burns/Erik Karlsson. Evander Kane continues to be a great one-off play as we rostered him on opening night and he came through with a goal.
I would be remissed if I did not mention them so I will say that if you’re going against the grain in this contest, you will be wise to roster the Kings second line of Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli.
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