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Caleb’s StableDuel Strategy – 11/22 Del Mar

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Yesterday our Karma players had an outstanding day, with one member taking down the $100 contest and multiple people finishing in-the-money for the Free Roll contest! Today’s card is more challenging, but let’s see what we can do!

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High Price Favorites

Life Is Good $11,000 – Race 2
I’ve been burned by high-priced Baffert first time starters multiple times this year, but I’m going back to the well one last time here with Life is Good. All indications from the morning workout reports are that this horse is an absolute monster. He’s been working fast, and he has an excellent pedigree for getting debut winners. I wouldn’t blame someone for using a cheap horse here in a small field trying to steal points, but I get the feeling Life is Good could win by five lengths and blow the doors off of this field.

Save The Story $9,200 – Race 1
Save The Story is most likely the winner of this race. She flashed runaway speed last out before tiring late, and she catches a really soft field here today. I wouldn’t fault anyone for using her, however, I’m hesitant to back a horse in such a cheap race for $9,200. There are other high priced favorites in today’s card who I think are more trustworthy, so this is a race where I would look towards better valued horses who may run 3rd or better.

 

Mid Price Plays

Cutetip $3,000 – Race 9
Today’s card is one of those contests that feels full of high priced horses and low priced bombs without many logical mid range horses to use. Cutetip was one of the few mid priced horses that caught my attention. She appears to have never been asked for her best in that debut race, but the best part of that effort was the monster gallop out. She still had a full head of steam well past the wire, and she looks like one who will thrive going two turns. The class drop certainly helps, and this feels like the right spot for her to improve at a nice price.

 

Value Plays

Acai $1,000 – Race 3
Acai is not my favorite pick to win this race, however, at only $1,000 she offers great value here. She showed good early speed two back when making her first start off of a long layoff. She subtly improved last out, and it’s encouraging that O’Neill elects to move her back into starter allowance company off of that effort. She has enough early speed to be dangerous, and as long as she avoids a pace duel I think she could get a piece of this.


Stylish in Red $500 – Race 1
See my note above on Save The Story for my overall thoughts on this race. This is not the spot where I want to lean on a heavy favorite who has already proven what kind of horse they are, so I’m taking a flyer on a fresh face. Stylish in Red is by Wartime, who gets 20% winners with debut runners. This filly posted a respectable 1:00.4 work at Los Alamitos, and it’s interesting to see a competent local jock in Tiago Perieria take the mount for this small barn. This one could easily be a negative horse, but for only $500 there is significant upside.

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