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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (5/17/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians

Dylan Bundy is scheduled to take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight against the Cleveland Indians in Cleveland. Vegas has the run total set at 9 and the Indians are -158 favorites to win, giving them an implied run total of 5.1 runs. Bundy has allowed 2.3 HR/9, and over the last 12 months, he has a fly ball rate over 40%. His hard hit rate is rather low, but his FB/HR ratio is high. The Cleveland Indians are loaded with power hitters, but who makes the most sense for home run potential tonight? Well, start with the leadoff hitter, Francisco Lindor. Lindor has 0.054 HR/AB, which is the highest on the Indians’ team. His power splits against right-handed pitchers is only slightly negative, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 213 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 47%. As the leadoff hitter, he should see an added at-bat opportunity as well. Next, move down one spot to Jason Kipnis, who is expected to hit second in the Indians’ lineup tonight. Kipnis is a left-handed batter with a 0.116 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. He has 0.037 HR/AB, which is rather low, but in his career, he has 83 home runs against right-handed pitchers and only 25 against left-handed pitchers. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 214 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 42%, and a hard hit rate of 44%. Kipnis will be the most overlooked player with home run potential for the Indians tonight. Finally, this lineup would not be complete without Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is the Indians top power hitter, and he has 0.050 HR/AB. He enters tonight’s game with a 0.077 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 219 feet, an average exit velocity of 90 MPH on those batted balls, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. The Indians are going to score. When the Indians score, they usually hit home runs. Dylan Bundy is one of the most home-run-susceptible pitchers in the league. All the stars are aligned here.

 

Recommended Batters: Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Jose Ramirez (TBA) – Cleveland Indians – 3B

Jose Ramirez has solid positive power splits against right-handed pitching, and he has the second highest home run per at-bat ratio on the Cleveland Indians’ team. Due to Francisco Lindor dealing with negative splits, make Ramirez the singular MyBookie bet tonight.

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

Francisco Lindor (OVER, 8.5)

If Francisco Lindor hits a home run, he will obviously exceed 8.5 fantasy points. Even if he does not hit a home run, he has a decent chance at exceeding the PrizePicks’ limit. The Indians are expected to score 5.1 runs, and Lindor is hitting leadoff. He has a small added stolen base potential, as well, stealing 0.14 bases per game.

 

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

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