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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (6/18/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers

Last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers struggled against the San Francisco Giants and Tyler Beede. Luckily, Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest doesn’t require teams to perform well; it requires one home run from one of the three selected players, and Max Muncy went yard in the second inning. So, all in all, I’m still the best in the business. Moving on to tonight, the Cleveland Indians are playing in Texas against the Rangers. It makes sense to target both Zach Plesac and Adrian Sampson, as both have been struggling with fly balls this season, but Sampson has the worse advanced metrics, so the Cleveland Indians are the play. Sampson is currently sporting a 4.21 ERA, and while he does pitch much better at home, his last two games suggest trouble tonight. He has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. This game is set at 10.5 total runs via Vegas, and Sampson is a minor +105 underdog, giving the Cleveland Indians an implied run total of 5.4. The most difficult part of this recommendation is going to be choosing between all nine Indians. Francisco Lindor makes a lot of sense, as he is expected to hit leadoff, and there is nothing better than winning a bet in the first inning with the first batter. He is leading the Indians’ team in HR/AB with 0.056, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 229 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 34%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Next, move down to Carlos Santana, who is expected to hit third tonight. He is hitting 0.049 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet. Combine that with his average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, 42% fly ball rate, and 47% hard hit rate, and Santana is clearly a home run threat tonight. Based on advanced metrics, the final remaining spot comes down to Jose Ramirez and Leonys Martin. Ramirez is hitting 0.037 HR/AB, while Martin is hitting 0.036. In the last 15 days, Ramirez has an average batted ball distance of 216 feet compared to Martin’s 217 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH compared to Martin’s 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45% compared to Martin’s 47%, and a hard hit rate of 40% compared to Martin’s 38%. Even though Martin leads in most categories, Ramirez is expected to hit fifth, and Martin is expected to hit ninth. The potential added at-bat is huge in contests like these, so Ramirez fills out the roster.

 

Recommended Batters: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Leonys Martin (TBA) – Cleveland Indians – OF

In order to get a little bit of exposure to Leonys Martin, bet on him via MyBookie. He has great advanced statistics over the last 15 days (see above), and his batting average, home runs, and RBIs should start to increase. Martin is going to have wide odds to hit a home run based on his recent performance, and his lack of name recognition. As long as his odds are wider than all of the above-mentioned players, this solo bet makes sense.

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

N/A

Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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